In June, the market price of epichlorohydrin first fell and then rose. The main influencing factors come from cost and supply and demand aspects. According to the monitoring and analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 27th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epichlorohydrin was 9500 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.06% compared to early June.

Price influencing factors:
Raw material side: In the first half of the month, the external price of raw material glycerol remained high and firm, while domestic demand was weak, resulting in a slight decrease in its focus. However, the cost of glycerol based epichlorohydrin remained under high pressure. Raw material propylene also experienced a decline in the first half of the year. Overall, due to insufficient cost support, the price of epichlorohydrin decreased slightly in the first half of the year. In the second half of the month, the market price of raw material propylene rose, while the price of glycerol remained high and firm, providing strong support for the cost of epichlorohydrin and leading to a trend of price increase. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of June 26th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6838.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.59% compared to the beginning of this month (6538.25 yuan/ton).
Supply side: In the first half of the month, due to the decline in raw material propylene prices, the production cost of enterprises was low, and their enthusiasm was high. The capacity utilization rate reached over 90%, and the supply side was relatively sufficient. The market competition was fierce, and the price of epichlorohydrin showed a downward trend. In the second half of the month, the spot market for epichlorohydrin is slightly tight, with market prices showing a slight increase.
On the demand side: The downstream epoxy resin market showed weak demand in June, with limited new orders and a relatively cold trading atmosphere. The total downstream consumption of epichlorohydrin in June was about 94600 tons, a decrease of 3.9% compared to the previous month. Overall, downstream demand support is limited, and it is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will mainly consolidate.
Market forecast: Analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the high prices of glycerol and propylene on the cost side will provide support, but weak downstream demand and a cold trading atmosphere may lead to loose supply of epichlorohydrin. It is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will mainly consolidate in the later stage, and more attention still needs to be paid to changes in raw material prices and market supply and demand.

According to the price data from Shengyi Society, as of June 27th, the average selling price of PET is 6147 yuan/ton.
In June 2025, the price of polyester bottle chips showed a volatile trend of weak pullback in the first half of the year, high rise in the middle, and pullback in the second half.

In early October, the average spot price in East China fell from 5965 yuan/ton to 5939 yuan/ton, mainly due to the decline of crude oil below 70 US dollars/barrel, which dragged down PTA and ethylene glycol (PTA fell to 4870 yuan/ton), and cost support collapsed. Downstream inventory replenishment is only limited to small orders for essential needs, and exports are suppressed by rising sea freight rates and anti-dumping investigations. The inventory days remain at a high level for 16-18 days, and under the influence of multiple factors, prices are weakly declining.
In mid month, the weekly average price in East China rose to 6084 yuan/ton, and geopolitical conflicts pushed Brent crude oil to 78.85 US dollars/barrel, followed by PTA rising to 4990 yuan/ton, with increased cost support.
In the latter half of the year, as the situation between Iran and Israel eased, crude oil prices plummeted, cost support loosened, and polyester bottle chip prices also fell. On June 26th, the main futures of polyester bottle chips fell by 3.69%, and the market entered a weak consolidation, but the expected reduction in supply limited the decline.
Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
1. Cost side: Cost fluctuations dominate prices
The Middle East conflict has pushed Brent crude oil to $78.85 per barrel, followed by PTA at $4990 per ton, directly increasing the cost of bottle pellet polymerization. Raw materials are struggling to keep up with the rise, and PTA is expected to add 4.5 million tons of production capacity, which will limit the repair space for processing fees. The high inventory of ethylene glycol at the port limits the rebound.
2. Supply side: reduced production and weakened capacity expansion
Top enterprises jointly reduced production by 20% in July, combined with 1 million tons of parking in Sanfang Lane and 70% of construction in Baihong, affecting a total production capacity of 4.9 million tons. The operating rate is expected to decline by 17 percentage points to 77%. By 2025, only 600000 tons of equipment will be added to Fuhai, compared to 9.32 million tons added in the previous three years. The degree of capacity expansion will weaken, and the long-term supply pressure will ease.
3. Demand side: rigid support during peak season, but weak recovery
The recovery of downstream demand is weak, and the replenishment of inventory is mostly due to small orders for essential needs, lacking the drive to chase after price increases. Although the second quarter is the peak season for downstream beverage factories to stock up, there is a certain rigid demand that provides some support for prices. However, overall demand is not enough to drive prices to continue to rise significantly. When cost support weakens, prices are prone to fall.
Future prospects
Overall, the polyester bottle chip factory has a large-scale production reduction plan since July. If the plan is successfully implemented, the low-priced supply in the market will gradually decrease, and the tight supply situation will be reflected, which is conducive to price increases and short-term price recovery is expected.