According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market slightly increased this week (December 4th to December 11th), and the market price in East China was 13900 yuan/ton on December 11th, up 1.09%.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, Tianjin Port’s manganese ore transactions continued to decline, with the average price of mainstream ore overall decreasing by 0.2-0.3 yuan/ton, South African semi carbonate at 29.8-30.2 yuan/ton, Gabon at 34.3-34.5 yuan/ton, and Australia at 35.8-36 yuan/ton. This week, the trading volume of manganese ore in Qinzhou Port was light, and the transaction price was weak and downward. Low price transactions emerged one after another, with South African semi carbonates priced at 29.5 yuan/ton, Gabon at around 35 yuan/ton, Australian dollars at 36-36.5 yuan/ton, and Australian seeds at 32-33 yuan/ton.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for five consecutive months since December 2022. After a slight rebound in May, prices have been declining for three consecutive months since June. The antimony ingot market has fluctuated narrowly since mid August, and the market has remained stable in November, with a slight upward trend.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market slightly rebounded, with mainstream market prices rising to 12300-12500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of supply and demand, some southern enterprises have plans to reduce production this week. Under the influence of tight supply expectations, enterprises have a strong attitude of price support, and factory prices have been raised. It is difficult to find low-priced goods in the market, and market expectations have improved. There has been no significant improvement in demand, and downstream demand has always been difficult to increase, with limited support for the upstream market. In the future, there is a supply-demand game, and currently, enterprises have a strong mentality of price support. It is expected that the overall market will operate stronger in the short term, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance.

Related data:

This week, the silicon and manganese market continued to operate weakly, with steel mills bidding for silicon and manganese prices continuing to fall in December, breaking through the cost lines of most regions. Manufacturers have intensified losses, production enthusiasm is low, inventory still needs to be consumed, and market confidence is insufficient. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6150-6300 yuan/ton on December 8th, with an average market price of 6256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.44%.

Steel recruitment situation:

The new round of electrolytic manganese bidding in Pohang, South Korea is due on December 13, 2023, with a delivery date of January 20, 2024.

The bidding price for spherical electrolytic manganese at Baoshan Base of Baowu Iron and Steel in December 2023 is 12930 yuan/ton including tax, which is the same as the price in November, with a quantity of 1000 tons.

The bidding price for Baosteel’s electrolytic manganese sheets in December 2023 is 12550 yuan/ton for the Zhanjiang base, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to November, with a quantity of 2200 tons; Baoshan Base costs 12750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to November, with a quantity of 2450 tons.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda has been improving this week. The average market price on December 4th was 2635 yuan/ton, and on December 11th it was 2680 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.71% and a year-on-year increase of 6.03%. On December 10th, the baking soda commodity index was 176.95, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 24.97% from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 100.46% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22nd, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is strong and the downstream market is purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is strong and the mainstream market quotation is around 2500-2900 yuan/ton. According to the product analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash in the upstream of baking soda remains strong. The average market price on December 4th was 2680 yuan/ton, and on December 11th it was 2780 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.73%, up 5.3% from the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been strong in recent times, and the upstream raw material of soda ash has been strong in recent times. The downstream demand for baking soda, including pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, is still acceptable. Supported by raw materials, it is expected that baking soda prices will remain strong in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, this week the industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate in Shanxi was priced at 5475 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.92% month on month, and the current price has dropped by 6.81% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has been volatile and consolidating. From the above chart, it can be seen that after a continuous slight increase in the potassium nitrate market, the market has remained basically stable this week. Domestic potassium manufacturers have sufficient supply, border trade sources have slightly increased, and prices have fallen. The potassium nitrate market is trading coldly, with average transactions and market consolidation. According to the statistics of Business Society, the mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 5200-5500 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated: 60% of the port’s large red particles are priced at around 3000-3150 yuan/ton, and 62% of the border trade’s Russian white potassium is priced at around 2850 yuan/ton, with prices temporarily stable. The domestic potassium chloride market has a large supply of imported goods, and it is expected that the potassium chloride market will be weak and consolidate in the future.

Recently, domestic potassium chloride prices have fallen, and cost support has been poor. Downstream demand for essential procurement is maintained, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline this week, and the price of lithium carbonate can be said to have plummeted. On December 7th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 110000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.86% compared to the average price of 123400 yuan/ton on December 1st. On December 7th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 119400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.9% compared to the average price of 134000 yuan/ton on December 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that lithium carbonate prices have been in a continuous downward trend since December, and lithium carbonate futures prices have fallen deeply for several consecutive days, with the highest daily decline reaching 7%. In terms of supply, after the large salt lake factory released goods last week, the market has a relatively sufficient supply of spot goods. In addition, Zhili’s exports to domestic lithium carbonate in October have recently arrived in Hong Kong one after another. Although most of this lithium carbonate is reserved for long-term orders, it will still bring an increase in market supply in the short term. Trading companies are also continuously in a strategy of selling individual orders at low prices.

In terms of demand, downstream positive electrode material companies are still in a low mood for purchasing goods, only replenishing inventory sporadically during periods of low prices. However, due to the continuous decline in prices, downstream positive electrode material companies are also relatively cautious in their willingness to purchase loose orders. Some individual positive electrode materials have the idea of clearing their raw material inventory before the end of the year, making it difficult for short-term market procurement demand to increase.

The price of lithium hydroxide is showing a downward trend, affected by the decline in upstream spodumene concentrate prices and the weak operation of the lithium carbonate market. Cost support is weak, and downstream demand for high nickel materials is limited. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weak.

Downstream prices of lithium iron phosphate have declined, with few individual trades in the market, mainly long orders. On the cost side, the price of lithium salts has fallen, and the price of iron phosphate is also falling, leading to a decrease in the production cost of iron lithium materials. There is no significant increase in demand for the demand side, power side, and energy storage side, and the finished battery cells are still being stocked, resulting in limited procurement of lithium iron phosphate.

In terms of futures, lithium carbonate futures have fallen on 17 of the past 18 trading days, and hit the limit on November 22, November 27, and December 5, respectively. Futures prices have repeatedly hit new lows on the market. On December 7th, the main contracts and other contracts of lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose the limit one after another. On December 7th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract was 93300 yuan/ton, with the highest price of 95600 yuan/ton and the latest price of 95600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6.99%. The transaction volume was 182000 lots and the position was 124068 lots.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, in the current situation of imbalanced supply and demand of mobile lithium carbonate, spot prices will still be under pressure. However, the decline in lithium carbonate prices has already brought great pressure to some high cost lithium salt enterprises, and upstream lithium salt factories have a high proportion of losses. Therefore, lithium salt enterprises often formulate production plans based on long-term sales. With the arrival of winter, lithium carbonate is in the off-season of production, so the supply will slow down. It is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate will continue to operate weakly under pressure in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of pure benzene has slightly declined this month, with a sharp decline in prices in the middle and late stages. On November 1st, the price was 7913 yuan/ton; On November 30th, the price was 7200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.01% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 10.05% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, pure benzene in East China continued to decline, with active sellers selling. Downstream customers had a poor buying atmosphere, and market negotiations continued to decline due to news of unplanned parking in some downstream markets. The Shandong refinery reported a significant drop in prices, but the magnitude of the drop was lower than market expectations, resulting in weak transactions. The rebound of crude oil is expected to provide support for sentiment, and East China pure benzene is expected to consolidate at a low level in the morning.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 850 yuan/ton to 7200 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil: Although US commercial crude oil inventories have increased for the sixth consecutive week, the market continues to focus on OPEC+meetings and supply side performance, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 01 rose $1.45 per barrel, or 1.90%, at 77.86; ICE oil futures contract 01 rose $1.42 per barrel, or 1.74%, at 83.10. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2401, rose 4.7 to 577.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 8.3 to 585.7 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

External market: FOB South Korea increased by 8 to 847 yuan/ton, CFR China increased by 7.5 US dollars to 871 US dollars/ton, FOB Southeast Asia increased by 8 to 822.5 US dollars/ton, FOB Rotterdam and CIF ARA increased by 20 to 871 US dollars/ton, FOB US Gulf stabilized by 326 US cents/gallon.

The fundamentals are showing a downward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene may continue to decline in the short term, and we are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in demand and downstream equipment dynamics on the price of pure benzene.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PP market in November first rose and then fell, with prices of various wire drawing brands fluctuating. As of December 1st, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -1.29% compared to the average price level in early November.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, at the beginning of the month, market confidence was strengthened due to the impact of the third quarter economic data and external inflation easing signals, and upstream support for PP increased. But with the impact of Russia’s tariff adjustment and OPEC’s production reduction in the second half of the month, international crude oil prices have fallen, along with a decline in propylene prices. Due to the rising transportation costs of natural gas and propane, the price of PDH has increased. The methanol market is relatively stable. Upstream raw materials fluctuate, with overall support for PP initially increasing and then decreasing.

The direction of raw materials varies, and the cost side shows a weakening trend in supporting PP. In terms of industry load, although there were new production units in the polypropylene industry in November, some enterprises had unplanned maintenance, with an average load of around 77%, a decrease from October. The overall supply of goods is abundant, and it is expected that there will be a stable increase in production in the future, but the magnitude is not significant, and the pressure on on-site supply will remain. In terms of demand, downstream plastic weaving production is maintained at around 45%, while the production rate of film materials and injection molding enterprises is maintained at over 60%, and the overall position remains stable. Terminal enterprises maintain cautious operations in purchasing goods, with average trading activity on the exchange, and the overall market for wire drawing materials has initially increased and then decreased.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 1st, the domestic spot price of fiber PP also rose first and then fell. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7612.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -0.81% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 4.84% compared to the same period last year. In November, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials saw an increase in load, with an operating rate level close to 39%. The digestion speed of end products has accelerated due to the frequent occurrence of influenza, and the demand for fiber materials in the market has only slightly increased. The price of non-woven fabrics follows the market trend. It is expected that the market for fiber materials will continue in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor the domestic supply and demand situation.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market in November saw a narrow decline after consolidation. As of December 1st, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8237.50 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is -1.35%, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.47%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China has not increased significantly, and the impact of seasonal climate on the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials still needs to be transmitted for a while. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. It is expected that the melt blown material market will maintain a narrow consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market rose first and then fell in November. The trend of upstream raw materials fluctuates, and the cost side provides support for the market from high to low. Terminal enterprises maintain the initial level of production, and their procurement operations tend to be biased towards rigid demand. The new production of PP equipment in the second half of the month is on par with the temporary inspection. The current PP fundamentals are bearish, and it is expected that the PP market will maintain a narrow and weak operation in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor international crude oil related news.

The dichloromethane market fluctuated and weakened in November. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.72% from 2575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point of the month was 2610 yuan/ton, and the low point was 2410 yuan/ton. Due to the tight supply side in the early stage, prices remained strong. In the later stage, on the one hand, the support for raw materials weakened, and on the other hand, the pressure on the supply and demand side further increased, resulting in a weak and downward trend in the dichloromethane market.

In the first half of November, the start-up of methane chloride plants was affected by the maintenance of some enterprise facilities, resulting in an overall decline. The lowest start-up value in the first half of the month was around 6.2%; In the second half of the month, with the resumption of production of early maintenance equipment, the operating rate gradually increased to around 7.6%.

The cost support for dichloromethane in November was strong before and weak after

In November, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and rose, while the price of liquid chlorine remained strong at the previous high level and significantly decreased at the end of the month. The cost support for dichloromethane weakened from strong to weak. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of November 30th, the spot price of methanol was 2510 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.50% from 2425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 2520 yuan/ton, and the low point was 2365 yuan/ton; At the end of November, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was 300 yuan/ton, which was lower than the price of 600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Affected by the low starting point of equipment maintenance in the first half of the month, the supply of dichloromethane was tight, and the price of dichloromethane remained firm; In the second half of the month, on the one hand, the construction will improve the recovery of the supply side, and on the other hand, the willingness of merchants to hoard goods is low. Downstream terminals are only supported by rigid demand, and the inventory of methane chloride enterprises has slightly increased, leading to a decline in prices.

Market forecast: According to analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data, the cost of dichloromethane still has support, but the demand side is weak. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

In November, the domestic acetone market first suppressed and then rose, showing a slight downward trend overall. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the national acetone market has experienced a decrease of 1.4 yuan/ton from 7162 yuan/ton on November 1st to 7062 yuan/ton on November 30th.

Average price trend chart of acetone in the national market

The acetone quotations in major mainstream markets across the country on November 30th are as follows:

Region/ Price on November 30th/ Monthly fluctuations

East China region/ 6800./100

Shandong region/ 6950./100

Yanshan region/ 6950./100

South China region/ 7600./50

At the beginning of the month, there was sufficient supply of domestic resources, timely replenishment of port volume, and a large flow of spot goods in the market. From a downstream perspective, more terminals were purchased according to demand, with more single orders being negotiated, and overall small orders being the main focus. Traders offered according to the market.

In the middle of the month, the maintenance equipment of the phenol ketone factory was relatively concentrated, and many large units reported parking plans. In the situation where the expected shortage of spot resources was approaching, the intention of traders to ship at a low level weakened, and the prices quickly increased. Terminal factories entered the market to supplement, and the trading atmosphere improved. Although the factories still controlled the shipping pace at the end of the month, the overall purchasing power of downstream was limited, and the market maintained a strong operation.

In December, the domestic acetone market may show a mixed trend of ups and downs. In terms of supply, the new production capacity of Hengli Petrochemical is expected to be released in December, and the expectation of import contracts being the main focus is relatively average. From the demand side, downstream bisphenol A may have new production capacity released, while other downstream isopropanol and MMA will follow up as needed. It is expected that the acetone market in East China will fluctuate within the range of 6600-7200 yuan/ton in December.