Aluminum fluoride prices fell in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 9th, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 11450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from the price of aluminum fluoride on November 1st, which was 11575 yuan/ton. Costs have decreased, demand support has decreased, and the price of aluminum fluoride fluctuated and fell in November.

Fluctuation and decline in fluorite prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 9th, the price of fluorite was 3700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.33% compared to the price of fluorite on November 1st, which was 3750 yuan/ton. The construction of fluorite mines has been poor, and the supply of fluorite mines remains tight. Downstream demand is poor, and fluorite prices have slightly decreased. The high price of fluorite has fallen, cost support has weakened, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride has increased.

The price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 9th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 11183.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.19% compared to the price of 11433.33 yuan/ton on October 31st. Refrigerant enterprises are operating at a low level, and hydrofluoric acid is purchased on demand. The price of hydrofluoric acid has decreased, and the market for hydrofluoric acid has declined. The price of hydrofluoric acid has fluctuated and fallen, and cost support has weakened. The downward pressure on aluminum fluoride still exists.

Yunnan Province faces power restrictions, resulting in a decrease in the production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises

Under the influence of seasonal water inflow differences, in recent years, Yunnan, a major hydroelectric province, has almost normalized the phased power restrictions and production reductions for industrial power users in the region. After entering November, electrolytic aluminum manufacturers have gradually reduced their operating capacity in the Yunnan region. This winter, the production restriction curtain will begin, and the current round of electrolytic aluminum production reduction in the Yunnan region is expected to continue until May 2024, and it is not ruled out that there is a possibility of a second round of power restriction and production reduction. It is expected that the impact on the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum will reach millions of tons. The reduction in production of electrolytic aluminum has led to a decrease in demand for the raw material aluminum fluoride, and the downward pressure on aluminum fluoride has increased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at the Business Society believe that in November, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite continued to decline slightly at the end of October, and the cost of fluoride aluminum decreased; Due to power restrictions in Yunnan, the production of electrolytic aluminum is expected to significantly decrease, and the demand for aluminum fluoride has significantly decreased. The downward pressure on aluminum fluoride has increased. Overall, the cost of aluminum fluoride has decreased, and demand is weak. The downward pressure on aluminum fluoride has increased, and it is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will weaken due to future fluctuations.

The focus of the domestic MIBK market is declining. According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market quoted 15600-15800 yuan/ton on November 3rd, a decrease of 7.07% during the week

The MIBK market has seen a broad decline, with mainstream negotiated prices in East China dropping to 15600-15800 yuan/ton. Currently, the operating rate of the MIBK industry is at 65%, and downstream buying and wait-and-see are the main factors in the declining market. The demand for goods is limited, and traders’ enthusiasm for shipping is not high, resulting in a bearish market.

The cost side was bearish, and the domestic acetone market fell broadly during the week. With the concentration of imported goods arriving at the port, inventory increased to 22000 tons, and the market’s spot circulation increased. In addition, at the beginning of the month, downstream large factories mainly consumed contract volume, with little intention of restocking in the market. Traders were under pressure to sell at low prices. During the week, Sinopec lowered the listing prices of factories in East China and North China, boosting the market’s decline, As of the morning of November 6th, the listing price of Lihua Yiwei Yuan acetone continued to be lowered by 100 yuan/ton to execute 6700 yuan/ton. The mainstream reference price in East China is around 6500 yuan/ton, and the national acetone market fell by an average of 6.57% during the week, with acetone in East China dropping by 9%.

From a terminal perspective, the demand is mostly for small orders to follow up. As the market enters the off-season, the operating rate of the downstream antioxidant industry has declined, and the overall demand for raw materials is relatively low. The market’s bearish mentality has increased. Large enterprises enter the market with caution and operate under targeted contracts, resulting in a lack of positive support for the industrial chain.

Business Society predicts that the short-term MIBK market will continue to decline, with traders mainly reducing inventory through profit margins. The market will continue to bottom out in November. Focus on the support from the raw material end.

From October 27 to November 3, 2023, the antimony ingot market in East China remained stable for the time being, with prices remaining unchanged at 82500 yuan/ton over the weekend.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has seen a positive trend in recent times.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony remained stable, with a price of $11550/ton as of November 3rd. It remained stable during the cycle and the market atmosphere was somewhat wait-and-see, with limited impact on market sentiment.

The antimony ingot market continued to maintain a temporary stable operation during the week, with limited factors affecting market supply and demand, and the market remained temporarily stable. In terms of supply, there is still a tight supply at the mining end. Recently, the smelter has been operating steadily, and the supply of antimony ingots is still tight. Manufacturers still have a mentality of being reluctant to sell. In terms of demand, downstream antimony oxide enterprises maintain on-demand procurement and replenish antimony ingots as needed. Currently, the overall market mentality is weak. Overall, the antimony ingot market is still weak in both supply and demand. Without clear news, the spot market will remain temporarily stable in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market has temporarily remained stable, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and average overseas sales performance. Market expectations remain weak, and antimony oxide enterprises maintain a demand for antimony ingots.

On November 2nd, the non-ferrous index stood at 1115 points, an increase of 8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.50% from the cycle’s highest point of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 83.69% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic vitamin market continued to decline in October, with some products experiencing a worsening decline and the market remaining sluggish.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the price of vitamin C weakened in October, with a price of 22 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 20 yuan/kg on the 31st, a monthly decrease of 9.09%. Affected by the continuous decline in demand, the prices of raw materials continue to decline, and the market price of vitamin C continues to decline. Upstream quotations are on the market, downstream prices are on demand, and demand is mainly on demand.

The price of vitamin A weakened in October, with an average price of 87 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 82 yuan/kg at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 5.7%. The current mainstream market quotation is around 75-80 yuan/kg, while the European market quotation is 12-22 euros/kg. The demand for vitamin A in the market is weak, and domestic and foreign enterprises have extended parking hours. The supply side has tightened, but due to the weak demand side, the price center of vitamin A continues to shift downwards.

In October, the price of vitamin E slightly adjusted, and the mainstream market price remained stable around 65 yuan/kg. The European market offers a price of 6.8-7.2 euros per kilogram. Large domestic factories have suspended production for maintenance, and the vitamin E market continues to decline. In September 2023, China’s vitamin E export volume reached 7300.5 tons, an increase of 86.7% year-on-year and 9.5% month on month, indicating a stable growth in export market demand.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some vitamin prices are currently operating at the bottom, and there is limited room for further downward adjustments in the future. The market is in the stage of finding support points, and without significant positive factors to boost it, it is expected that most products will maintain low volatility. In the future, we will closely monitor market trends and changes in enterprise production.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isobutyraldehyde significantly decreased in October. The market price of isobutyraldehyde decreased from 9000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8233.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 8.52%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 24.75% year-on-year. On October 30th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 42.13, a decrease of 0.68 points from yesterday, a decrease of 60.10% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 39.87% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic isobutyraldehyde manufacturers significantly decreased in October, and the inventory of manufacturers was average.

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

From a cost perspective, the upstream propylene market for isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell in October. The price of propylene decreased from 7270.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7100.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.34%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 0.50% year-on-year. Insufficient support for rising costs has a bearish impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the downstream market for neopentyl glycol fluctuated and rose in October. The market price of neopentyl glycol has increased from 10450.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10600.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.44%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 5.30% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to early November, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Although the downstream market for neopentyl glycol has slightly increased and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde, the upstream propylene market has slightly declined and cost support is insufficient. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is declining. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.