High consolidation of plasticizer DBP prices this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 11th, the DBP price was 9812.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% compared to the price of 9775 yuan/ton on August 4th. The price of DBP raw material butanol has fluctuated and decreased, while the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and increased. The cost of plasticizer DBP has not increased enough, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is 40%. The supply of plasticizers has contracted, and the profits of plasticizer enterprises are at a loss. The plasticizer manufacturers are operating under low load, and many plasticizer enterprises have equipment shutdowns. Downstream demand is cold, and high prices of plasticizers are difficult to pass down, resulting in an increase in plasticizer inventory. This week, the price of plasticizer DBP has stabilized at a high level.

The price of isooctanol has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 11th was 11240 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.23% compared to the price of 10783.33 yuan/ton on August 4th. Planned and unexpected shutdowns of domestic octanol plants have led to a tightening of the supply of isooctanol and a continuous increase in octanol prices. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has surged, and the cost of plasticizer DBP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment has become cautious. In mid to late August, two sets of isooctanol units in Shandong and Jiangsu are planned to restart, and the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose. However, there is insufficient support for the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 11th, the price of n-butanol was 7900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47% compared to the price of 8100 yuan/ton on August 4th. In some regions of China, the centralized maintenance of n-butanol units has led to a reduction in on-site supply, and tight spot circulation has supported the upward movement of the n-butanol market. Downstream demand is flat, and downstream enterprises’ procurement enthusiasm is cold. This week, the price of n-butanol has fluctuated and decreased, and the cost of plasticizer DBP has decreased. In the future, the pressure on the price of plasticizer DBP to decline has increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in mid to late August, the expected recovery of isooctanol enterprises’ construction is insufficient support for the sustained rise in isooctanol prices; Poor demand, fluctuating prices of n-butanol, continued support for the rise of phthalic anhydride market, and insufficient support for the cost increase of plasticizer DBP products in the future. The downward pressure is increasing; Downstream PVC demand growth is poor, and plasticizer DBP demand is cold. In the future, the support from rising costs is insufficient, and downstream demand is cold and plasticizer supply is shrinking. It is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels in the future.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices have risen during the cycle. On August 7th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 9266 yuan/ton, mainly due to a decline in raw material prices in the early stage, poor downstream shipments, weak demand side performance, and a gradual increase in bearish factors on the market.

Cost side: In terms of raw materials, the market price of coal tar has started to rise, with most deep processed products showing a parallel relationship with the raw material coal tar. The enterprise operates well, actively receiving raw materials, and coal tar has entered a tight supply and rising price situation, providing strong support for the cost side of carbon black; As of August 6th, the market price of coal tar is 4757 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall operation of the domestic carbon black market is stable, with sufficient supply in the carbon black market.

In terms of demand: The overall demand of downstream tire enterprises is weak, and they are still in the traditional sales off-season. Although the market is affected by buying up rather than falling, the enthusiasm of end users for inquiries has increased. However, recently, there has been a shortage of construction and infrastructure work, leading to further weakening domestic demand. Enterprises mainly need to purchase just now, and have a clear resistance to high priced carbon black sources, resulting in weak overall demand.

Overall, the high price of raw coal tar in the market provides good support for the cost of carbon black, with low inventory levels and no significant improvement on the demand side. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and it is expected that the carbon black market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price fluctuated and fell this week, with urea prices dropping from 2622.86 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2591.43 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.20%. Weekend prices increased by 6.82% year-on-year. On August 6th, the urea commodity index was 120.53, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 20.88% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 116.78% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient cost support, weakened downstream demand, and sufficient urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream prices of urea in China have fluctuated this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly declined this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly decreased, from 3678.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3630.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.31%. The weekend price has decreased by 43.86% year-on-year; The price of anthracite has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) at 1130 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia fluctuated and fell, dropping from 3500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3483.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.48%. The weekend price fell by 9.68% year-on-year. The upstream raw material prices have slightly decreased, which lacks support for urea prices. This week, the downstream melamine price of urea has stabilized at a low level, with a price of 6875.00 yuan/ton.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. The use of fertilizers in summer has basically ended, with sporadic fertilizer supplementation being the main focus, and agricultural demand has weakened. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises are operating at a low level, with a focus on purchasing on demand. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late July, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has slightly declined, and the cost support for urea is insufficient. Downstream agricultural demand has basically ended, while industrial demand is average. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

The Nitrile rubber market fluctuated slightly this week (7.28-8.4). According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of August 4, the price of Nitrile rubber was 13825 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from 13800 yuan/ton last Friday. The price of raw material butadiene and acrylonitrile rose, and the focus of cost of Nitrile rubber moved up slightly; Downstream demand continues to be weak, and market transactions remain relatively flat.

The prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile rose slightly this week (7.28-8.4), and the cost of Nitrile rubber rose slightly compared with the previous period. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 4th, the price of butadiene was 7376 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.43% from last Friday’s 7201 yuan/ton; As of August 4th, the price of acrylonitrile has increased by 4.05% from last Friday’s 8025 yuan/ton at 8350 yuan/ton.

As of August 4, the domestic Nitrile rubber plant has been started stably, and the later maintenance and restart of the enterprise coexist.

Downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries mainly have small inquiries and small transactions in the market.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that the supply of Nitrile rubber is increasing slightly at present, and the downstream inquiries are general. It is expected that the market of Nitrile rubber will continue to weaken and consolidate in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic vitamin market lowered its low level in July, with most products experiencing minor adjustments to their low levels. Some varieties returned to a stable state after experiencing changes, and overall trading remained weak.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the price of vitamin C slightly decreased in July, with a price of 23.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 23.33 yuan/kg on the 31st, a monthly decrease of 1.44%. Affected by the continuous decline in demand, the market price of vitamin C has continued to decline. With the weather turning hot, there are more planned maintenance companies and a decrease in vitamin supply. Downstream demand remains small and rigid, controlling the market situation. The focus of consolidation trading has fallen.

The price of vitamin A slightly adjusted in July, with an average price of 91.75 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 90.75 yuan/kg at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.09%. The current mainstream market quotation is 88-92 yuan/kg, and the European market quotation is 20-24 euros/kg. The weak demand in the vitamin A market has led to prices dropping to their lowest levels in recent years, with limited room for further decline.

In July, the price of vitamin E slightly adjusted, and the mainstream market price remained stable around 70 yuan/kg. The quotation for the European market is 6.9-7.35 euros/kilogram. Large domestic factories have suspended production for maintenance, and the vitamin E market has started to stabilize in the middle of the year. The willingness of factories to increase prices is obvious, with downstream demand being the main demand.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some vitamin prices have already bottomed out, and there is limited room for upstream price reductions. The market is in the stage of finding support points, and without significant positive factors to boost it, most products are expected to maintain low volatility. In the future, we will closely monitor market trends and changes in enterprise production.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business community, the price of imported Potassium chloride in the domestic market fell slightly in July, and the price of Potassium chloride fell from 2775.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2725.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.80%. On July 30, the Potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 86.51, unchanged from yesterday, 50.45% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 174.60 (2022-06-21), and 48.52% higher than the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from March 1st, 2012 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side, the quotation of domestic mainstream Potassium chloride dealers fell slightly this month. The arrival price of Potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the end of the month is about 2400 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, 62% of the port’s white potassium was around 2400-2500 yuan/ton, 60% of the port’s red particles were around 2600-2700 yuan/ton, and 62% of the border trade’s Russian white potassium was around 2200-2300 yuan/ton. The port stock of Potassium chloride is about 2.70-2.8 million tons.

From the demand side, the market price of potassium carbonate has significantly decreased this month, from 7720.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7340.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 4.92%. The price at the end of the month has decreased by 25.29% compared to the same period last year. The ex factory price of Potassium nitrate rose slightly this month, from 5425.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5525.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 1.84%, down 22.73% year on year. On the whole, the downstream market of Potassium chloride has ups and downs. The agricultural demand is weak, the industrial demand is general, the market has entered the slack season, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for Potassium chloride has weakened.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The market trend of Potassium chloride in the first ten days of August may slightly fluctuate and fall, mainly finishing. The price of Potassium chloride in Salt Lake and Zangger was adjusted at a low level, mainly based on contracts. Downstream agricultural demand weakens, industrial demand is average, and procurement is mainly on demand. Supply exceeds demand, and the price of Potassium chloride may fall in the future.