In October, the mainstream factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China rose slightly. The price of calcium carbide rose from 3700.00 yuan/ton on October 1 to 3950.00 yuan/ton on October 28, an increase of 6.76%. The price at the end of the month fell by 50.83% year-on-year.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

On October 27, the carbide commodity index was 103.93, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.03% from the peak of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 87.30% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

 

From the supply side, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China rose slightly this month.

 

From the weekly K column chart of calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide rose slightly in October, with the highest weekly increase of 4.05%.

 

Cost end: the price of charcoal fell first and then rose

 

The overall price of carbon dioxide in the upstream of carbide rose slightly this month. In October, the average market price of domestic semi coke feedstock rose from 1703.33 yuan/ton on October 1 to 1778.33 yuan/ton on October 27, an increase of 4.4%. Due to the shortage of coal and winter storage, the price of lump coal continues to rise, the cost of coke enterprises is under pressure, the price of upstream coke continues to rise, and the cost support of calcium carbide increases.

 

PVA

Demand side: PVC market price drops

 

The PVC market price in the downstream of calcium carbide fell sharply this month. The PVC market price in this month fell from 6265.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6042.86 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.56%. The price at the end of the month fell 42.45% year-on-year. The ex factory price of 1,4 butanediol in this month was high and fluctuated narrowly, with the ex factory price of about 14600.00 yuan/ton. On the whole, the downstream market of calcium carbide rose and fell with each other this month, and the downstream demand was average.

 

In the future: in the first ten days of November, the carbide market may fall slightly, mainly finishing. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has risen slightly recently, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. However, the downstream 1,4 butanediol and PVC markets declined slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that carbide prices in northwest China will fall slightly in the first ten days of November, mainly finishing.

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1、 Price trend

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic caprolactam liquid market on October 1 was 11450 yuan/ton. On October 31, the average price of domestic caprolactam liquid market was 12466 yuan/ton. The domestic caprolactam price rose 8.88% this month.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

Domestic caprolactam prices rose this month. After the National Day holiday, the market price of caprolactam continued to rise. The price of raw material pure benzene rose, the cost side of caprolactam was well supported, the market supply was tight, downstream procurement was active, and the manufacturer operated at a high price. The caprolactam market was consolidated and operated well in the second half of October. The price of raw material pure benzene fell, the cost end support of caprolactam weakened, the market supply remained tight, and downstream procurement was based on demand, mainly on wait-and-see. The operating rate of downstream polymerization plants increased, and the demand for caprolactam was stable. As of October 31, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 12800 yuan/ton, which was withdrawn by acceptance.

 

Raw material pure benzene rose after the festival and fell continuously this month.. Due to the wide rise of crude oil during the festival, the price of pure benzene in Asia has risen, which is good for boosting the domestic pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene has risen. However, with the increase of downstream maintenance, the overall demand side has weakened. In addition, the market of styrene, the main product, has dropped continuously, and the focus of market negotiation has weakened. The downward channel has been opened in the middle of the month. The pure benzene inventory of East China ports rose again in the late ten days, and a large number of ships are expected to arrive at the port in the later period. The industry is bearish on the future market, and the decline at the end of the month expanded. In this month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was raised twice and lowered four times, down 400 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton in Hebei and Shandong).

 

PVA

The domestic market of downstream PA6 fluctuated this month, and the spot prices of various brands rose in a narrow range. As of October 31, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprise for China Bond 2.75-2.85 was about 14233.33 yuan/ton. This month, the cost support of PA6 was strong, and the distal upstream gradually weakened. In terms of demand, the industry is relatively lagging behind. At the same time, the industry is worried about the negative impact of PA6 capacity expansion and lagging downstream demand, and the market has a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, the market is long and short, and it is expected that PA6 will operate in a narrow range in the short term.

 

3、 Future market forecast

 

The caprolactam analysts of the business community believe that the on-site supply of caprolactam is tight at present, and the supply side is well supported. Raw material pure benzene continued to fall, with weak cost support. The downstream fluctuated slightly, the demand for caprolactam was stable, and the wait-and-see mood was obvious. It is expected that the short-term caprolactam market will be dominated by stable consolidation and operation.

 

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