According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 11, the price of PET water bottle has been operating in a narrow range and weak. At present, the average price is 7140.00 yuan/ton, down 0.36% compared with the same period last week. The overall market is weak. At present, the market supply and demand are balanced, the operating rate is stable, and the procurement atmosphere is general.

This week, the domestic PET price is narrow and weak. The mainstream price is about 7140 yuan/ton. At present, the market operation rate is normal, the atmosphere of negotiation is general, and the willingness of downstream to stock up is not strong. At present, the mainstream price is about 7200 yuan/ton. This week, the price is slightly lowered and weak.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On November 10, the rubber and plastic index was 671 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 36.70% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 27.08% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from the business agency believe that the mainstream price of PET market is expected to be stable and strong next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of toluene rebounded after falling this week. The price was 7400 yuan/ton on November 4 and 7410 yuan/ton on Friday (November 11), up 0.14% from last week; It was 12.44% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

The downstream chemical industry has limited support for the demand for toluene. The gasoline industry continues the situation of “strong diesel and weak steam”. Domestic demand is weak, and prices continue to decline at the beginning of the week. With the rise of crude oil, the market in East China rose slightly.

In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia fell broadly this week. On Thursday (November 10), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $869/ton, a year-on-year drop of US $51/ton, or 5.54%.

In terms of crude oil, international oil prices fell in the first half of the week due to the weakening of fuel demand due to epidemic measures in Asia and the unexpected growth of crude oil stocks in the United States. However, there are signs that US inflation is slowing down, supporting the rebound of oil prices. As of November 11, Brent price this week fell by 2.58 dollars/barrel, or 2.62%, compared with last week; WTI fell by 3.65 dollars/barrel, or 3.94%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell deeply this week. On November 4, the price was 21333 yuan/ton, and on November 11, the price was 18000 yuan/ton, down 15.62% from last week and up 20.4% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX, the domestic PX price remained stable this week. On November 4, the price was 8600 yuan/ton, and on November 11, the price was 8600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and 17.81% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, it is difficult to reverse the situation of “strong diesel and weak gasoline”. This week, gasoline fell and then fell back. On November 4, the price was 8179 yuan/ton, and on November 11, the price was 8171 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from last week and up 3.68% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, macro level, future interest rate increases will slow down or remain uncertain. However, both sides of supply and demand will continue to play games. While supply is tight, demand is also facing challenges brought by economic recession. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

At present, the price of crude oil is relatively high, which has a certain positive support for the toluene market; However, the demand side has not improved significantly, and it is expected that toluene will continue to operate in a weak position. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province fell first and then rose this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong Province dropped from 9533.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a drop of 3.85%. A year-on-year drop of 25.47%. On November 13, the isooctanol commodity index was 67.40, unchanged from yesterday, 50.98% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 (2021-08-08), and 91.75% higher than the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream support increases while downstream demand decreases

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week, with the price rising from 7000.60 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 7330.60 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 4.71%, down 7.24% year on year. The upstream raw material market price rose slightly, and the cost support increased. Affected by the supply and demand, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

Judging from the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP factory price fell first and then rose this week. The DOP price dropped from 10,320.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10,030.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.81%, 16.76% year-on-year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers became less enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

The upstream support is good, the downstream demand is weak, and the future market of isooctanol is bullish

In the middle and late November, Shandong’s isooctanol market may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly and cost support increased. Downstream DOP market has an upward trend over the weekend, and downstream demand is average. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

This week (11.7-11.11), the domestic dimethyl ether market was running smoothly as a whole, and the price in Henan rose slightly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4950 yuan/ton on November 7 and 4620 yuan/ton on November 11, with a weekly increase of 0.65% and a year-on-year increase of 3.24%.

As of November 11, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

Jiangxi, 4570 yuan/ton

Hebei, 4560 yuan/ton

Henan Province, 4250-4620 yuan/ton

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market was running smoothly as a whole, and the offer in various regions was basically unchanged, with big stability and small changes. In terms of supply, the factory started to maintain low load operation, and the parking enterprise has no plan to resume start-up, so the inventory in some areas is controllable. In terms of demand, the downstream demand is weak, with rigid demand as the main demand. The factory has a stable delivery of goods, and there is an obvious willingness to set prices. The buyer and seller are relatively cautious. There is no obvious positive factor guidance in the market, the level of factory operation is not high, the inventory is controllable, and there is no profit yield plan. Influenced by various factors of raw material methanol, it rebounded at a low level, but the overall market is still weak.

To sum up, crude oil operates in shock, methanol market tends to be weak, cost support is average, and demand has not improved significantly in the near future. It is expected that dimethyl ether will continue to consolidate and operate in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of November 4, the average price quoted by the domestic premium DMF enterprises was 6850.00 yuan/ton, down 1.44% compared with the same period last week. The overall DMF market price is mainly narrow and weak, and the price is weak and declining. At present, the operating rate is stable, the overall procurement atmosphere is general, and the negotiation atmosphere is insufficient.

The domestic DMF price is weak and declining. At present, the mainstream price range is 7000.00 yuan/ton, which continues to decline compared with the same period last week. The overall market negotiation atmosphere is cold, the manufacturers give up profits and take orders, the shipment is smooth, the operating rate is stable, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

Chemical commodity index: On November 3, the chemical index was 952 points, unchanged from yesterday, 32.00% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and 59.20% higher than the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The DMF analyst of Business Agency believes that the DMF market will maintain a weak operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the price of pure benzene fell broadly this week. On October 28, the price of pure benzene was 7500-7750 yuan/ton (the average price was 7472 yuan/ton), and on Friday (November 4), the price of pure benzene was 6900-7050 yuan/ton (the average price was 6967 yuan/ton), down 6.76% from last week and 8.57% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

At the beginning of the week, the pure benzene inventory at ports in East China rose to 73200 tons, and the import of pure benzene at ports is expected to increase in the future. Downstream market decline is the main trend, with strong resistance to high price pure benzene. In addition, the industry is short of the future pure benzene market, with general interest in market procurement, weak demand in the north, and strong factory willingness to ship. The supply side increased while the demand side declined, and the price fell continuously during the week.

Sinopec cut the price of pure benzene twice this week, from 450 yuan/ton to 7000 yuan/ton.

In terms of external market, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market on Thursday (November 3) fell by 7.09% to US $786/ton, down by US $60/ton year on year; The reference import price in East China was 818 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year drop of 47 US dollars/ton, or 5.43%.

In terms of crude oil, the economic data performed better than expected. Superimposed on the decline of the US dollar, the US crude oil and gasoline stocks declined. OPEC+promoted production reduction. The demand of the oil market may improve. The overall international oil price rose this week. As of November 4, Brent prices this week rose by 2.8 dollars/barrel, or 2.92%, compared with last week; WTI rose $4.71 per barrel, or 5.36%.

Downstream

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, in the later stage, the macro and supply and demand sides are still good for the oil market, and the oil price may be stronger in the future. However, before the European embargo on crude oil and product oil from Russia comes into effect, the oil market is still uncertain due to the disturbance of geopolitical factors. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The drop in the price of pure benzene led to a slight improvement in market buying, but the overall turnover was limited. There is still an increase in the supply side, and the overall downstream demand is poor. It is expected that pure benzene will continue its weak operation in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external price trend, pure benzene port inventory dynamics and pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the figure above that the domestic hydrochloric acid price was temporarily stable this week, with the average market price of 186.67 yuan/ton, a year-on-year drop of 43.09%. On November 6, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 49.12, unchanged from yesterday, 64.38% lower than the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and 173.19% higher than the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is generally

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market declined slightly, and the cost support weakened. The price of the downstream polyaluminum chloride market was temporarily stable at 2011.25 yuan/ton, down 22.64% year on year; The market price of ammonium chloride fell slightly, from 980.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 957.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week. On the whole, the upstream support is weakened and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average.

Future market forecast

In the middle and late November, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has declined slightly in the near future, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have fluctuated in a narrow range at low prices, and the downstream purchase intention is general. The analysts of the business association believe that hydrochloric acid has declined slightly in recent shocks.

This week, the domestic propylene market stabilized first and then rose, while Shandong propane market rose slightly at the weekend. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 5675 yuan/ton on October 31, and 570 yuan/ton on November 4. The weekly increase was 0.96%, down 10.41% compared with the same period last year.

As of November 4, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region., November 4

In South China, 5550-5700 yuan/ton

North China, 5500-5750 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5650-5780 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5700-5800 yuan/ton

This week (10.31-11.4), the domestic propane market was weak as a whole, and Shandong propane market rose slightly. In November, the CP price rose, boosting the confidence of the industry. On the market trading was active, with more inquiries, and the trading atmosphere improved. However, due to the escalation of domestic security incidents in some regions, the transportation is limited and the goods are not transported smoothly. In terms of cost, crude oil rose slightly in shock, and liquefied gas declined in general weakness, with average cost support.

Saudi Aramco introduced CP in November 2022, and propane was 610 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton from last month; Butane is 610 dollars/ton, up 50 dollars/ton from last month.

Overall, the strong performance of the international market further boosted the domestic market, and the demand side is expected to improve. It is expected that the propane market may rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, in October, the domestic adipic acid market went out of the trend of surging and falling. After the festival, affected by the rising market of suppliers and tight supply, adipic acid rose sharply, with a weekly increase of more than 12% (see the weekly K-bar chart). After the middle of the month, due to the lack of good support on the demand side, the price fell back, erasing some of the previous gains. At the end of the month, the market price range of adipic acid was 10400-10600 yuan/ton. Adipic acid rose 5.93% in the whole month.

Supply side

In terms of market supply, in the first ten days of the year, suppliers were generally in the market, and the operating rate of enterprises was generally low, maintained at 50%, a slight drop compared with that before the festival. The pressure on manufacturers’ inventory eased, supporting prices to rise. Since the middle of the year, the increase in the operating rate of enterprises has brought more supply. Supply is excessive from tight to loose.

Cost side

On the cost side, it can be seen from the figure above that adipic acid is highly related to the trend of upstream pure benzene. Pure benzene has gone out of the market that rose first and then fell. During the 11th National Day, international crude oil prices rose sharply, boosting downstream chemicals. The price of pure benzene also rose driven by crude oil. The supply of pure benzene in East China is tight, and spot prices are generally higher. In the middle and late ten days, the price of pure benzene fell, which had a significant impact on adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business community, pure benzene fell by 10% from October 11 to the end of the month.

Demand side

The downstream demand of adipic acid has not changed much, and the demand remains rigid. According to the monitoring of the business community, the downstream PA66 rose by 2.02% in October, with a significantly slower pace of growth (up to 11.2% in September). The downstream demand did not bring much benefit to adipic acid. The lack of demand increment and the lack of cooperation from the downstream purchasing end foreshadowed the high level of adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was 25250 yuan/ton at the end of October.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that adipic acid is stronger than the upstream and downstream. The main raw material, pure benzene, has dropped significantly, easing the pressure on the cost side of adipic acid, and the manufacturer’s profits have been improved, but at the same time, some downstream profits have been squeezed.

Future outlook

The business agency believes that at the end of the month, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and the settlement of the big factory is imminent. In addition, the decline of pure benzene has entered a certain platform period, and the power of decline is not strong in the later period, mainly due to the positive impact of the supply side. At present, there is too much equipment maintenance, and it is difficult to resume and improve the load of many devices in the later period. But it is difficult to improve the demand too much. To sum up, adipic acid may maintain a weak shock, and the game between supply and demand will lead to a stalemate in the market.

Zinc price fell nearly 800 yuan/ton on the 31st

According to the data of the business agency, the economy was weak, the metal plate fell generally, and the zinc price led the decline on the 31st. As of October 31, the zinc price was 23730 yuan/ton, down nearly 768 yuan/ton, or 3.13%, from 24498 yuan/ton on the previous trading day; Shanghai futures zinc closed at 22610 yuan/ton, down 5.4%. In the near future, the current price of nonferrous metal plate continued to fall, and the current zinc price fell sharply. On the 31st, the zinc price led the metal plate down.

Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index in October

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) in October was 49.2%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. In October, affected by the frequent outbreaks of domestic epidemics, China’s purchasing manager index fell back, the PMI of energy intensive industries fell to the contraction range, and the demand for nonferrous metals contracted significantly. The demand of zinc market shrinks, and the downward pressure of zinc price increases.

Increase in domestic zinc concentrate processing cost

As of October 31, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 4500-5000 yuan/ton, 500-800 yuan/ton higher than that in September, and 1000 yuan/ton higher than that in June, 3500-3800 yuan/ton. The zinc concentrate processing fee continued to rise significantly, and the smelting profits became more and more rich. The zinc smelting enterprises’ enthusiasm to start the business rose, and the supply of zinc was expected to increase. Recently, the epidemic situation around the country has increased, and the demand was slightly affected. Weak demand and supply warmed up, and the downward pressure on zinc price increased.

Future market forecast

According to the data analysts of the business community; Macroeconomic weakness and contraction, non-ferrous metal plate prices fell; The processing cost of zinc concentrate rises sharply, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase, the demand for zinc ingots remains weak as the supply increases, and the downward pressure on zinc price increases; Although the sharp drop in European natural gas prices has limited impact on the supply of zinc smelting in Europe, the cost of European zinc smelting enterprises has declined, and the zinc price has a certain negative effect; In the future, the recent epidemic situation has worsened, the processing cost of zinc concentrate has continued to rise, and the supply of zinc market has increased and the demand is weak. However, in November, the European Glencore zinc smelting production is expected to stop production for maintenance, and the zinc market is still supported by growth. It is expected that the zinc price will be adjusted in a wide range in the short term.