Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the domestic ABS market fell in July, and the spot prices of various brands fell by a large margin. As of July 29, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 12050 yuan / ton, up or down -8.37% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the port inventory of styrene fell at the beginning of the month, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. However, affected by macro inflation factors such as international crude oil shocks, market prices fluctuated and fell. The center of gravity of direct upstream pure benzene moved downward, which was difficult to support the styrene market. The fundamentals of supply and demand were weak. Some maintenance devices were restarted, and the market inventory was expected to rise. The transaction of styrene market is poor, so it is suggested to pay close attention to the trend of cost side.

Acrylonitrile generally maintained a weak operation in July. Although the situation of propylene in the upper and middle reaches of the month has slightly warmed up and received cost support, the market supply side is still loose. In addition to the previous long-term pressure of high start-up rate, although the pressure of enterprises gradually reduced the negative pressure within the month, the consumption of domestic downstream acrylonitrile enterprises was insufficient, so they bought up rather than fell, and the price focus gradually fell, which was difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the acrylonitrile price will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

In July, the domestic butadiene market experienced a consolidation stage from the beginning of the month to the middle of the month, and the price fell in the middle and late days of the month. The main reasons that affect the market this month are as follows: one is that the market supply side is affected by the maintenance or restart of the devices of major production enterprises; the other is the impact of the final decline of the fluctuation of the external market. The most important impact is that the demand side is weak and the market atmosphere is difficult to improve. Incremental spot supply, low capacity utilization in downstream industries, and limited rigid demand support. Butadiene analysts of business agency predict that the domestic butadiene market may still decline in the short term.

In July, the upstream three materials of ABS cost side showed a poor trend, and ABS cost side support weakened. In the macro aspect, previously, the international crude oil was affected by macro inflation factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, and the price volatility intensified, which was bad for the oil chemical industry chain. In terms of industry load, although the current operating rate of ABS enterprises is forced to fall, the industry load is still high. The on-site supply is still abundant, and the decline of industry load has limited support for the supply side. The current season is in the off-season of the industry, especially the main downstream household appliances and other industries lack of output, and the on-site demand is weak. Merchants cut prices and take orders, and the offer follows the market. At the end of the month, midstream traders have certain receiving operations, and some low-end ex factory offers have been consumed, temporarily raising the spot price.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell in July, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials was poor, weakening the cost side support of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. The off-season market on the floor dominates the market, and some bargain hunting operations have a certain support for the market. It is expected that the ABS spot market will mainly operate in a volatile manner in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business agency, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to decline in July. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of TDI was 17625 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of TDI was 15850 yuan / ton. During the month, it was reduced by 1775 yuan / ton, with an overall decrease of 10.07%. As of July 31, the domestic goods with tickets are about 15200-15500 yuan / ton, and the Shanghai goods with tickets are about 15500-16000 yuan / ton.

In July, the TDI market continued to be weak, and prices fell continuously during the month. In the first half of the month, the market fell by a narrow margin, the downstream terminals were in the traditional off-season, the demand was weak, the shippers negotiated to ship at a profit, the spot goods in the factory were tight, the market mentality gave some support, and the market focus moved down slightly; In the second half of the month, the TDI market fell broadly, mainly due to the downturn in the terminal industry, weak domestic and foreign trade demand, coupled with market news that the TDI devices of Shanghai factory have been restarted one after another, the incremental inventory of goods in the field is expected, the supply support is weakened, the cargo holders actively sell goods at a profit, and the focus of trading and investment continues to move downward.

The upstream toluene market fluctuated downward. On July 31, the price was 7640 yuan / ton, down 1260 yuan / ton from 8900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with an overall decline of 14.16%. Crude oil fell broadly this month, toluene in Asia fell deeply, external news support was weak, the domestic downstream market of toluene was weak, demand follow-up was insufficient, trading on the floor was light, and under the influence of multiple bad news, toluene prices fell broadly.

TDI datagrapher of business agency analyzed that at present, the domestic TDI market is in a game of supply and demand. The supply of supplier factories is stable, and the offer of cargo holders is temporarily stable. Although the downstream demand has not been improved, the market just needs to buy more than before. The operators are cautious and wait-and-see, and the short-term TDI market is low.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of TDI in East China continued to decline this week. On July 29, the average market price in East China was 15850 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.37% compared with the price of 16750 yuan / ton on July 23, and a decrease of 10.07% compared with the beginning of the month.

During the week, the TDI market continued to decline weakly, the downstream terminal industry was depressed, the domestic and foreign trade demand was weak, and the enthusiasm for entering the market purchasing was not good. During the week, the TDI devices of Shanghai factories were restarted one after another, the increment of on-site inventory was expected, the supply support was weakened, the cargo holders were actively shipping, the focus of trading was constantly moving downward, the on-site trading atmosphere was weak, and the market was weak. Dealers follow the market and offer lower prices. As of the 29th, the quotation range of domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 15200-15500 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of Shanghai goods is 15500-16000 yuan / ton, mainly based on actual order negotiation.

The upstream toluene market was weak and consolidated, and the price trend in the week fell first and then stabilized. As of July 29, the domestic average price of toluene was about 7640 yuan / ton, down 14.16% from the beginning of the month. The crude oil market rose slightly, supporting the rise of toluene in the outer market. However, in terms of downstream demand, most domestic downstream plants were in a state of shutdown, and domestic demand was not followed up smoothly, giving limited market support. The toluene market was on the sidelines during the week.

TDI datagrapher of business agency analyzed that the trading atmosphere in the domestic TDI market was quiet, the support of suppliers was weakened, the downstream demand continued to be weak, and the supply and demand performance was deadlocked. A small number of Companies in the market just needed to follow up. The support for TDI was limited, the mentality of the industry was poor, and the sentiment of buying up or not buying down was strong. It was expected that the aftermarket of TDI would continue to operate weakly. Specific attention should also be paid to the downstream follow-up.