This week (8.9-8.16), the polybutadiene rubber market was weak. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of August 16, the price of domestic polybutadiene rubber was 12570 yuan / ton, down 2.78% from 12930 yuan / ton last Tuesday. The downstream demand is sluggish, the cost is significantly lower, and the market is weak; This week, the petrochemical sales company reduced the ex factory price of CIS polybutadiene rubber. The market is light, and the offers of merchants are adjusted downward as a whole. Individual merchants wait and see, and private enterprises have a large discount for polybutadiene rubber.

At present, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber plant is operating at a high level. The 30000 T / a high CIS polybutadiene rubber plant of Jinzhou Petrochemical operates at a high load. In August, the planned output of CIS polybutadiene is around 3600 tons; The 160000 T / a new and old gaoshun CIS butadiene rubber plant of Daqing Petrochemical operates under high load. In August, the planned output of CIS butadiene is around 12800 tons; Dushanzi Petrochemical’s 30000 T / a high CIS polybutadiene rubber unit operates under high load. In August, the planned output of CIS polybutadiene rubber is around 3250 tons. In addition, the 170000 T / a Shunding unit of Maoming Petrochemical and Qilu Petrochemical is planned to be restarted in August, and the 40000 t / a new unit of qixiangteng is expected to be put into operation. The output of Shunding is expected to increase in August, and the supply side is expected to continue to be loose.

 
Since August, the butadiene market has fallen sharply, and the cost of cis-polybutadiene rubber has weakened significantly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 16, the price of butadiene was 7792 yuan / ton, down 16.71% from 9356 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market fluctuated and declined slightly, and the support for CIS polybutadiene rubber was not strong. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of August 16, the price of natural rubber was 12060 yuan / ton, down 1.47% from 12240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

 
The downstream tire starts at a low level, with the half steel tire starting at around 6.5% and the full steel tire starting at around 5.5%. The demand is weak in the face of rubber support, and the market transaction is slightly deadlocked.

 
Future forecast: business analysts believe that the raw material butadiene has dropped sharply and the price of natural rubber is hovering at a low level; The new production of Qixiang and the expected restart of Maoming Petrochemical increased the pressure on the supply side. It is comprehensively expected that the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber will continue to be weak and low in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, since August, the terminal rigid demand has increased, and the hydrogen peroxide market has risen steadily for half a month. As of August 15, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 886 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.47% over the beginning of the month.

Lido supports the continuous rise of hydrogen peroxide Market

Since August, the market of hydrogen peroxide terminal paper and caprolactam has dropped to the low point, and the market of hydrogen peroxide has also dropped to the low point due to its restriction. The manufacturers have a heavy price support mentality. In addition, some manufacturers have stopped for maintenance, and the supply is tight. The hydrogen peroxide market has improved, and the market has warmed up, returning to the front line of 820 yuan / ton, with an increase of nearly 2%.

In the second week, the order volume of hydrogen peroxide terminal increased, the quotation of hydrogen peroxide from the manufacturer increased, and the market continued to rise. By August 12, the increase had exceeded 8%.

In the third week, the hydrogen peroxide market was still rising, the terminal demand was improving, and the hydrogen peroxide manufacturers were full of confidence in supporting the price. As of August 15, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market rose to 886 yuan / ton, up 9.47% from the beginning of the month, nearly 10%.

Li Bing, an analyst of hydrogen peroxide at the business club, believes that the terminal demand is gradually warming up, and the benefits are still there. The hydrogen peroxide Market in the future will still keep oscillating and rising.

1、 Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fell this week, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of August 12, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 14100 yuan / ton, up or down by – 5.79% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in the upstream, caprolactam prices continued to be weak this week. The atmosphere in the raw material pure benzene field is not good, and the confidence of the operators is not strong, and the weak trend continues. The market demand is sluggish and the downstream follow-up is weak. Caprolactam is in abundant supply in the market. The enterprise mainly gives up profits and reduces inventory, and the transaction center continues to move downward. At present, the caprolactam market is not good, and the trend is constantly downward. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to be weak in the short term.

The upstream caprolactam market trend continued to decline, and the cost side support of PA6 continued to weaken this week. This week, the operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants has limited changes, and the overall rate remains above 60%. The supply side of PA6 is abundant, and the profit of aggregation enterprises is general. In addition, the recent load drop of downstream enterprises, combined with the previous inventory backlog of end-user enterprises, has led to the downstream enterprises not actively preparing goods, mainly taking small bills of goods, and carefully purchasing to maintain the production demand. The mentality of the merchants is affected, and the goods are shipped according to the market, mainly by giving up profits and taking orders.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 fell this week, the price of caprolactam continued to fall, and the cost side of PA6 was weak. The operating rate of downstream enterprises is low, their enthusiasm for taking goods is poor, and their operation is biased towards bargain hunting. It is expected that the market trend of PA6 will remain weak in the off-season in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Take the sulfuric acid rutile titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods sold in the domestic market as an example. According to the data of the trade agency, the price of titanium dioxide is basically stable this week, and the average price of domestic titanium dioxide is 18066.67 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market price is basically stable this week. At present, the domestic titanium dioxide market is better than that of last week. Stimulated by the price reduction last week, the orders of enterprises have increased this week. The downstream just needs to purchase, and appropriate replenishment is needed. However, the market inventory is still at a high level, and titanium dioxide manufacturers are under great pressure. Up to now, the quotation of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is between 16500-19500 yuan / ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is between 15000-17000 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region decreased this week. The downstream demand is weak, and the transaction in the titanium ore market is light. It is mainly wait-and-see, and the actual transaction is general. The pressure of small and medium-sized miners is large, the price is lowered, and the overall market is weak. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax for 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1420-1450 yuan / ton, the quotation excluding tax for 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2100-2150 yuan / ton, and the quotation for 47 grade 20 titanium ore is about 2300-2450 yuan / ton. In the short term, the market price of titanium concentrate is weak and stable, and the actual transaction price is a single negotiation.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers fell sharply this week. According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell this week. The quotation was reduced from 612 yuan / ton last Thursday to 462 yuan / ton this Thursday, with a decrease of 24.51%. The upstream sulfur market has risen slightly recently, and the cost is generally supported. The market prices of hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate in the downstream declined slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers for sulfuric acid was general.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst of business club believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market is basically stable this week, the domestic market demand is still light, and the on-site trading is general. The raw material titanium concentrate market is weak and downward, the sulfuric acid price has dropped sharply, and the cost support is weak. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be weak and stable in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be a single negotiation.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the polyacrylamide commodity index on August 7 was 95.32, which was the same as yesterday, down 14.52% from the highest point 111.51 (2021-11-03) in the cycle, and up 15.00% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Commodity market: the data monitoring of the business agency shows that the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the domestic market in the week (August 1-7) was stable and slightly decreased, of which the main quotation was 15642.86 yuan / ton on the 1st and 15642.86 yuan / ton on the 7th, with a slight decrease of 0.27% in the week. In this week, the production of the main manufacturer is normal, the market inventory is sufficient, the downstream demand is weak, and the transaction is general.

Industrial chain: upstream raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of business agency, the acrylonitrile market continued to decline in the week (August 1-7). As of August 5, the domestic acrylonitrile spot market price was 9060 yuan / ton, down 5.82% from 9620 yuan / ton on August 1. The supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry continues to be in a loose state, the downstream construction continues to fall, the market transaction is deadlocked, and the business offers are lower; According to the analysis, the current pressure on supply side and cost side restricts the action force of acrylonitrile, and it is difficult to change in the short term. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will continue to fluctuate at a low level in the later period.

Raw material acrylic acid: according to the data of business agency, the average quotation price of acrylic acid in East China fell sharply from 9566.67 yuan / ton to 8566.67 yuan / ton in that week (August 1-7), with a decrease of 10.45% this week. At present, the cost side support is limited, the demand side follow-up is still insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in downstream procurement. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will operate weakly and stably in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the changes of market news.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on August 1 was 6520 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on August 5 was 6456 yuan / ton. During the week, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas fell by 0.98%. The market trend of liquefied natural gas was concentrated in decline, and the decline on Friday was postponed, and some regions showed rebound. At present, the cost side is strongly supported, and the demand side is waiting to be released. It is expected that the LNG price will fluctuate slightly in the short term, mainly for consolidation and operation.

Future forecast: at the beginning of this month, the cost of raw materials continued to fall, the range increased, the cost support continued to weaken, the market spot inventory was sufficient, the downstream demand was general, and the market mentality was empty. It is expected that the polyacrylamide market in the future will continue to be stable and weak.

According to the data of business agency, the market price of trichloromethane rose slightly this week (8.1-8.8). As of August 8, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong remained at 2750 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.85% over last Monday.

At the beginning of August, the domestic supply of methane chloride continued to be loose, but on the one hand, the cost did not drop significantly again. In addition, the demand for refrigerant in high temperature weather was still supported. Chloroform enterprises tentatively raised the factory price, and traders followed.

This week (8.1-8.8), the methanol spot shock was weak, and the impact of cost was weak. According to the business agency, as of August 8, the spot price of methanol was 2537 yuan / ton, down 0.68% from 2555 yuan / ton last Monday.

Affected by the high temperature weather, the after-sales market demand of refrigerant R22 is supported. The overall low level of R22 is stable, and the support for trichloromethane is temporarily stable.

Analysts of methane chloride data of business community believe that domestic supply side pressure is still in; With the arrival of high-temperature weather, the refrigerant demand is supported to a certain extent. It is expected that chloroform will maintain a stable, medium and narrow consolidation trend in the later period.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride decreased slightly this week, with the price falling from 5283.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 5166.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 2.21%. This week, the factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable. This week, the factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is 4480 yuan / ton. On August 7, the potassium chloride (import) commodity index was 135.97, which was the same as yesterday, down 6.06% from the highest point 144.74 in the cycle (June 21, 2022), and up 40.60% from the lowest point 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium chloride dropped slightly: the factory price of potassium chloride in Qinghai Salt Lake at the weekend was about 4480 yuan / ton. Xiangyang youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5200 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend was 5100 yuan / ton, down 150 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend was 5200 yuan / ton, which decreased by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton. The self raised price of 60% of the port red particles is about 4900-5000 yuan / ton. 62% of Russian White potassium in border trade is about 4500-4700 yuan / ton. The arrival price of 60% white potassium in Qinghai is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of the downstream market of potassium chloride, the factory price of potassium carbonate dropped slightly this week, from 9825.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9775.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 0.51%, up 18.48% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. This week, the factory price of potassium nitrate dropped slightly, from 7150.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7050.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 1.40%, up 22.08% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride declined slightly, and the demand of downstream customers for potassium chloride weakened.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend of potassium chloride Market in the middle and first ten days of August may be dominated by narrow fluctuation and decline. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge is high, but the market supply is still limited, and the supply is relatively tight. The downstream market of potassium chloride has declined slightly, and the downstream demand has weakened, mainly due to the purchase. The international price of potash fell slightly. The potassium chloride analysts of business club believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may drop slightly in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the dichloromethane market rose slightly this week (7.29-8.5). As of August 5, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2950 yuan / ton, up 5.73% from 2790 yuan / ton last Friday. At the beginning of August, the dichloromethane market rebounded slightly. On the one hand, the profit of dichloromethane has been continuously squeezed since April, and there is a rebound demand in the short term; On the other hand, the downstream construction is still at a low level, and the insufficient support of the demand side suppresses the formation of dichloromethane.

At the beginning of August, the domestic supply of methane chloride continued to be loose, and the sufficient supply dragged down the upward trend of the dichloromethane market.

This week (July 29-August 5), the spot price of methanol fell, and the cost continued to weaken. According to the business agency, as of August 5, the spot price of methanol was 2473 yuan / ton, down 4.76% from 2597 yuan / ton last Friday.

The downstream refrigerant R32 industry of dichloromethane has started steadily, but recently it is the traditional off-season for the terminal air conditioning plant, and the actual demand is reduced; In addition, the export performance of foreign trade is stable, and the support for dichloromethane is weak.

Future forecast: the analysts of the methane chloride data of business club believe that although the price of dichloromethane rebounds this week, it is expected that the domestic supply of methane chloride will continue to weaken in the later period due to the loose supply side of methane chloride and the low cost side.

In July, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 11016 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month (as of July 28), the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone was 10180 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 7.59% in the month and 2.49% year-on-year.

In early July, driven by the high price of raw material pure benzene, the cyclohexanone market can still maintain a small upward trend. With the downward consolidation of pure benzene price, weak downstream demand and abundant supply, the cyclohexanone market fell all the way, which was difficult to boost.

At the beginning of the month, domestic cyclohexanone fell first and then rose, and the market rebounded in a narrow range. The raw material pure benzene fluctuates at a high level, and the cost is relatively stable. In the early stage, the pressure of cyclohexanone shipment was too high, and the price continued to fall. With the restart of the downstream Lunan caprolactam plant, the self use of cyclohexanone increased, and the supply of commodities decreased. The downstream chemical fiber just needed to follow up. Coupled with the loss of cyclohexanone, cyclohexanone stopped falling and rebounded.

In the middle of August, the domestic cyclohexanone market was depressed, the raw material pure benzene market was weak and fell, and the cost of cyclohexanone was lack of support. In the cyclohexanone market, the overall supply and demand are weak, and the downstream is more rigid, which needs to be followed up.

In late August, the domestic cyclohexanone market was weak and volatile, the raw material pure benzene was weak and fell, and the cost side lacked support. The downstream caprolactam market was weak, with general purchasing sentiment. Under the pressure of cyclohexanone shipment, it weakened in a narrow range.

At the end of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market fell first and then stabilized. Although the price of raw material pure benzene was high, the supply increased, the market supply was abundant, the industry mentality was depressed, and the price fell sharply.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of July 28:

Region, price

East China, 10500-10600 yuan / ton, cash delivery

South China, 10600-10700 yuan / ton, cash delivery

Shandong region, 10200-10300 yuan / ton, cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: international crude oil fell after rising, and the market price trend of domestic pure benzene was divided. The overall spot supply of pure benzene market is small, and the spot price in East China market has continued to rise.

Downstream caprolactam: the spot price of caprolactam fell, the downstream demand side continued to be weak, and the caprolactam market mentality was empty.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), 136 commodities rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly in the chemical sector; The top three commodities were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities fell month on month, concentrated in chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; The commodities with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (-57.47%), magnesium (-46.60%) and glycine (-45.71%). In this half year, the average increase and decrease was 6.53%.

Pure benzene fluctuated at a high level, downstream demand deviated, and cyclohexanone shipment resistance was large. Cyclohexanone analysts at business agency predicted that the short-term cyclohexanone market would still fall.

From July 1 to July 29, 2022, the market price of electrolytic manganese continued to decline. The spot market price in East China was 16650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 16400 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 1.5%.

Manganese ore: at the end of July, port manganese ore also made a small adjustment due to the continued weakness of the alloy end price, but the range was relatively small, only 1-2 yuan / ton adjustment, Australia ore and other relatively reduced stops. Gabon made a small adjustment in the price due to the arrival expectation in the later stage. Although South Africa Semi carbonic acid was willing to support the price, some merchants chose to ship, and the manganese ore price was slightly adjusted driven by the alloy end as a whole, However, due to the high short-term holding cost and acceptable concentration, manganese ore performs slightly better than the alloy end. However, if the alloy end is reduced and the demand is weakened, some minerals with certain profits may be adjusted to a certain extent.

Since the end of February, the market price of electrolytic manganese has fallen all the way, from 42075 yuan / ton to 16400 yuan / ton on July 29, with a cumulative decline of 61.02%, which has basically fallen back to the price before the sharp rise in 21 years. The decline in the electrolytic manganese market has basically slowed down after entering April, and the overall price has been slowly reduced. As of the 29th, the price of the domestic mainstream market was 14600-15000 yuan / ton. The situation of the new round of steel bidding is not ideal in terms of steel bidding. Baosteel and other steel companies fell by 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous round of steel bidding, and the bidding of other steel mills fell significantly or there was a situation of unsuccessful bidding. On July 22, the association called on more than 40 manganese member units to limit production by 60%. But the market had little effect. The downstream demand side performed poorly, and the spot price center continued to move down slightly. The downstream stainless steel enterprises have recently reduced production to a certain extent, and their demand for manganese has declined to a certain extent. The downstream purchase price pressure is obviously difficult to support the price of electrolytic manganese, and the market demand for manganese metals slows down in the off-season. On the whole, the supply and demand side of the market has not changed much, and the game mentality of both parties is strong. It is expected that the market price will be stable and weak in the short term.

In terms of manganese and silicon: on the 22nd, the manganese Department Committee of China Railway Association called for a 60% reduction in production to tide over the difficulties, and said that it would be ready to face the long-term difficulties. From the recent statistical production situation, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi and other main production areas have continued to carry out the reduction of production stops. After the appeal, it is not ruled out that some regional manufacturers will strengthen the reduction of production stops again next week, and the reduction of production stops will increase by 50% compared with the end of May. However, due to the weak downstream demand at present, Including the time that each enterprise arranges to reduce stops successively, the low-cost spot inventory in the market needs to be consumed, and the price of silicon and manganese can be further stabilized only after reversing supply and demand. The instability of manganese ore and coking coal prices is also the concern of all parties about the weakening of silicon and manganese costs. Due to the relatively high inventory costs of all parties at present, they will still bear certain losses in the short term. It is expected that the spot price of silicon and manganese will be weak in the short term.