In April, the domestic MTBE market was mixed, with different transactions. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE at the beginning of the month was 7375 yuan / ton, and the market price of MTBE at the end of the month was 7200 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 2.37% during the month and increased by 20.33% year-on-year.

 

PVA 1799 (PVA BF17)

Trend chart of average price of domestic MTBE producers in Shandong in April 2022:

 

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in March 2022, there were 10 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 9 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 56.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were coke (21.91%), petroleum coke (15.86%) and coking coal (14.06%). There are 5 kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 13.45%), gasoline (- 7.29%) and naphtha (- 6.89%). The average rise and fall this month was 5.78%.

 

Comparison chart of MTBE price trend of business society from 2018 to 2022:

 

Monthly K column chart of MTBE domestic production price of business agency:

 

Weekly K column chart of MTBE domestic production price of business agency:

 

At the beginning of the month, the MTBE market stopped rising and falling, with a decline of 700-800 yuan / ton. The main reason for this week’s price reduction is that the crude oil fluctuates lower and the market mentality is bad; The transportation demand in some areas continues to be limited, resulting in poor shipment of merchants.

 

In the first ten days of the month, the MTBE market stabilized, with only slight fluctuations in some regions. Before the Qingming Festival, local prices fell to a low level and transactions were light. Transportation and demand in some northern regions have recovered. During the Qingming Festival in Shandong, demand has increased, and business shipments have gradually improved. In addition, some factories in the region have stopped one after another, the overall supply is small, and individual businesses have increased slightly.

 

In mid June, the domestic MTBE market fell, with a decline of about 100-200 yuan / ton. As for the trend of international crude oil, the price showed a sharp rise and fall trend, which affected the market mentality. Although the transportation in some northern regions has recovered one after another, the slow improvement of downstream demand has hindered the sales of MTBE merchants, so they have no choice but to follow the downward adjustment.

 

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In late June, the domestic MTBE market price stepped up again, with an increase of about 100-300 yuan / ton. With the gradual recovery of gasoline demand in the north and the continuous rise of gasoline prices this week, the demand for raw materials increased. There are still 5-6 enterprises parking in Shandong, and the export volume of some enterprises in the North has increased, resulting in the tightening of the overall supply in the north. The price of C4 raw material rose, further driving the MTBE market.

 

At the end of the month, the MTBE market grew first and then declined, and the transaction gradually turned light. In the first half of the week, driven by the rise of crude oil and gasoline, the downstream demand was OK. In addition, due to the rich export arbitrage, the domestic MTBE export volume increased significantly, and some units were still in shutdown. The overall domestic spot supply was in short supply for a time. Short supply boosted, and businesses continued to push up prices. In the second half of the week, as the price rose to a high level, the enthusiasm for receiving goods in the downstream weakened, and the price of alkylated oil was 300-400 yuan / ton lower than MTBE, which restrained the market trend of MTBE.

 

Comparison chart of crude oil (upstream raw material) and MTBE price trend of business society:

 

Comparison chart of MTBE and gasoline (downstream products) price trend of business agency:

 

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on April 28, the closing price of Asian MTBE market decreased by US $1.35/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US $1167.72-1169.72/t. The closing price of European MTBE market increased by US $48.75/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at US $1272.99-1273.49/t. The closing price of us MTBE market increased by US $30.74/ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at US $1398.62-1398.97/ton (393.98-394.08 cents / gallon).

 

Region, country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia, FOB Singapore, USD 1167.72-1169.72/t, – USD 1.35/ton

U.S.A., FOB Bay, 1398.62-1398.97 USD / T, USD 30.74/ton

Europe, FOB ARA., 1272.99-1273.49 USD / T, USD 48.75/ton

 

In the short term, the price of MTBE market is expected to rise by about 100-150 yuan / ton after May Day with the increase of demand after the festival. However, with the end of the holiday, the market demand will decrease again. In addition, the transportation and demand in some areas are still limited, and the demand will also decline. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may still decline in the short term.

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According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of domestic carbon black was 10300 yuan / ton on April 30. Affected by the rising cost of coal tar, the demand support of the tire industry, the impact of public events, poor transportation, the increase of export orders and other factors, the price of carbon black increased.

 

PVA 1788 (PVA BP17)

On the cost side, driven by the supply and demand of the domestic high-temperature coal tar market this month, the new order auction price rose again. The supply and demand of the domestic high-temperature coal tar market continued to be tight, superimposed with the influence of pre holiday stock factors, and the mainstream new order auction prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Anhui and other regions rose sharply.

 

In April, the overall operating rate of the carbon black market was maintained at about 54%. Affected by domestic public health events, the transportation in most areas was seriously blocked, the arrival time of raw materials was prolonged, the logistics freight rate increased and other factors increased the pressure on carbon black enterprises. The operation of most carbon black enterprises was limited. In addition, some carbon black enterprises stopped production for maintenance, dragging down the overall operation of the carbon black industry, and the industrial inventory was low. It is expected that this market will continue for some time. At present, the overall carbon black supply in the market is significantly better than that in March. There is no rush for goods in March, but the logistics transportation in the market is still blocked. Recently, with the sharp rise in the price of coal tar and the rising cost of carbon black, the mentality of carbon black enterprises is different, and the mainstream carbon black manufacturers are in a strong mood to push up; Some small carbon black manufacturers are relatively mild in the negotiation of new orders in the market, mainly waiting for orders to be received and shipped.

 

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Downstream, the overall operating load of tire enterprises is stable. In April, although the operating rate of tire enterprises decreased compared with that in the early stage, the just needed support of tire enterprises still exists.

 

Business analysts believe that it is comprehensively expected that at present, the positive and negative factors in the domestic carbon black market are intertwined, and the carbon black market price may fall from a high level, but there is still a certain bottom support for the carbon black price under the operation of high cost. We should pay more attention to the overall market commencement and logistics transportation.

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