According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of April 14, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 763 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on April 8. Compared with the price on April 4 (the reference average price of phosphorus ore was 740 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 23 yuan / ton, or 3.15%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that last week, the domestic phosphorus ore market was close to the high-end again. As of this week, the domestic phosphate rock market has been consolidated and operated at a high level. The market fluctuation is small. The supply in the phosphate rock field continues to be tight, and the terminal demand is good, which supports the high and stable offer of the industry. The mining enterprises in some regions have suspended the quotation, and the first shareholder customers are the main customers. As of April 14, the supply of phosphate rock in Guizhou is tight, and the market is running at a high level. The market price of 30% medium and high-end phosphate rock is around 700-790 yuan / ton, The mainstream price is around 750 yuan / ton, the phosphorus ore market in Guangxi is consolidated and operated, the freight yard price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 750-790 yuan / ton, the phosphorus ore market in Hubei is running smoothly, and the ex factory price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 680 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand for phosphate rock is relatively stable, the short-term support from the on-site supply side is acceptable, and the trading atmosphere of phosphate rock market is normal.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, in the first week of Qingming’s return, the overall performance of the domestic yellow phosphorus market was slightly deadlocked. This week, the focus of the domestic yellow phosphorus market was down, the overall market trading was general, and the logistics in some areas was blocked. Downstream enquiries increased, but the goods were taken more carefully, the price was pressed more, and the enterprise quotation was reduced slightly. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is 35000-37000 yuan / ton; The quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan / ton; The quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 36500 yuan / ton.

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the downstream demand of phosphate rock is performing well, and the on-site inventory pressure is small. The phosphate ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic phosphate ore market will mainly focus on high-level consolidation and operation, and more attention should be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

This week, the lead market (4.1-4.8) “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 15495 yuan / ton last weekend and 15415 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.52% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of business society, there are two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 14th week of 2022 (4.4-4.8). The top two commodities are zinc (0.33%) and copper (0.17%). A total of 16 commodities fell month on month, and the top three products were electrolytic manganese (- 3.44%), aluminum (- 3.43%) and neodymium (- 3.31%). The average rise and fall this week was -1.04%.

In terms of futures market, Lun lead’s “V” trend fell this week, and the overall shock range was US $2365-2453 / ton. At the beginning of the week, boosted by the rise of crude oil, the metal market generally rose, and Lun lead followed. Later, with the rise of the US dollar, the metal market was generally under pressure, and the opening of Lun lead was under pressure. Shanghai lead basically followed the trend of Lun lead, rising first and then falling, and the high level fell on Thursday.

During the week, China happens to be the Qingming Festival holiday. After the festival, the market opens, and the price of lead ingots rises first and then falls. Basically, the operating rate of primary lead enterprises has increased slightly. In terms of recycled lead, due to the limited transportation, the trans provincial transportation has a certain impact. Boosted by the rising price of primary lead, the price of recycled lead is also rising, the profit of enterprises has increased, and the construction is active. In terms of downstream demand, with the market entering the off-season in April, the demand for storage batteries began to decline, and there were many cases of enterprise burden reduction. Downstream storage battery enterprises mainly purchased on demand.

In the aftermarket, the business community believes that the downstream gradually enters the off-season, and the support for the demand for lead ingots is limited. It is expected that the lead price will remain volatile, focusing on the impact of the futures market.

The price of orthobenzene fell this week

According to the price trend chart of orthobenzene in business society, the price of orthobenzene fell sharply this week. As of April 11, the price of orthobenzene was 8600 yuan / ton, down 4.44% from 9000 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month. In April, the market of ortho benzene industrial chain continued to decline, and the market of ortho benzene fell.

The price of mixed xylene fell all the way in April

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in business society, the price of mixed xylene fell all the way in April. As of April 11, the price of mixed xylene was 7420 yuan / ton, down 5.60% from 7860 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine eased, the high price of crude oil fell, and mixed xylene fell. In April, the price of mixed xylene fell sharply, the cost of o-xylene decreased, and the downward pressure of o-xylene increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price of business club that the price of phthalic anhydride fell in April. As of April 11, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8500 yuan / ton, down 2.72% from 8737.50 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month. In April, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, the demand for o-xylene weakened, the rising power of o-xylene weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Outlook

Analysts of o-xylene data of business society believe that the price of mixed xylene has fallen sharply and the cost of o-xylene has decreased due to the decline of high crude oil price; Affected by the epidemic, the price demand for phthalic anhydride in the downstream is weak, and the downward pressure on orthobenzene is increased. On the whole, the cost of orthobenzene has decreased and the demand is weak. It is expected that the price of orthobenzene will be adjusted weakly in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the bulk list of the business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 3550 yuan / ton on April 6, and 3625 yuan / ton on April 11. The price of monoammonium phosphate rose by 2.11% this week.

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium phosphate was 3640 yuan / ton on April 6 and 3640 yuan / ton on April 11. The price of diammonium phosphate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise this week, and the price increased by 50-100 yuan / ton. Due to the rising price of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur and the continued pressure on the cost side, monoammonium phosphate enterprises raised the price again. At present, it mainly implements the early-stage orders. At present, the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Henan is about 3550 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Anhui is about 3700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei is 3550-3600 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

The market of diammonium phosphate is running at a high level this week. At present, the waiting volume of diammonium is nearing the end, and the cost pressure is not reduced. Most enterprises suspend receiving orders and stop quotation. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, on-site trading is general, and traders operate with caution. The mainstream factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei is 3600-3650 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated.

The price of raw phosphate rock increased this week. After the Qingming Festival in April, with the support of tight supply, the domestic phosphorus ore market price in some areas is close to the high-end again. With the advent of spring ploughing season and the increase of peak season, the downstream demand performs well. The supply in the phosphorus ore quarry continues to be tight. Some mining enterprises are mainly contracted by users, and the goods are tight, so no external quotation will be made for the time being.

The price of raw sulfur rose this week. The downstream sulfuric acid market continued to be strong and upward, and the support for sulfur demand was good. In addition, the supply of goods in the port was tight, the market operated at a high level, and many parties were good. The mentality in the field was optimistic. After the festival, individual refineries increased, and the market continued to rise.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium phosphate analyst of business society believes that at present, due to the continuous high level of ammonium phosphate raw materials and the high cost pressure of ammonium phosphate, most enterprises suspend quotation and order receiving. The downstream demand is general and the trading volume is reduced. Due to the domestic epidemic, the transportation in many places is not smooth. It is expected that in the short term, the price of Monoammonium will be adjusted and operated stably, with limited room for rise, and the price of diammonium will continue to be adjusted at a high level.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic sulfuric acid market price rose slightly this week, and the quotation increased from 1141.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 1158.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.46%, a year-on-year increase of 122.76% compared with the same period last year. On April 7, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 180.28, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 471.95% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Strong upstream cost support and enhanced downstream procurement enthusiasm

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers increased slightly this week, the manufacturer’s inventory is general, and the downstream demand is good. Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid is quoted at 1400 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Zouping Tianlu sulfuric acid is quoted at 1050 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Changzhou Qinghong sulfuric acid is quoted at 1300 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Changzhou Changjiang sulfuric acid quoted 1300 yuan / ton this weekend, up 100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid is quoted at 1100 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Liaocheng Huatong sulfuric acid is quoted at 800 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has continued to rise recently. The quotation has increased from 3343.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3426.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.49%, up 137.41% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The upstream market has gradually increased recently and the cost support has been strengthened. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market was consolidated at a high level, with a quotation of 11500 yuan / ton, up 8.26% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream formic acid market rose slightly. The quotation increased from 7100.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7266.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.355, a year-on-year increase of 165.85% compared with the same period last year. The downstream market was consolidated at a high level, and the downstream products had a positive impact on the price of sulfuric acid.

Market outlook rose slightly

The domestic sulfuric acid Market in the middle and early ten days of April may rise slightly. The upstream sulfur market has gradually increased recently, with a large increase and good cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has been consolidated at a high level, the downstream formic acid market has increased slightly, the downstream customers have good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend is upward under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market, the market price of sulfuric acid may rise slightly.

The price of liquid ammonia in Shanxi and Shandong stabilized in April, and the price of liquid ammonia in Henan rebounded slightly in April. The market supply pressure is relieved, partially affected by traffic, and the shipment is not smooth.

Situation in some regions:

On April 7, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong operated steadily. Today, the market recovered slightly, the inventory pressure in the region is general, the supply of goods is sufficient, and the downstream normal procurement is the main thing. Today, most manufacturers reported stability, some manufacturers reduced inventory pressure, and the quotation increased slightly, with a range of 50 yuan / ton. At present, supply and demand are basically balanced. Today, the mainstream price in the region is 4750-4850 yuan / ton.

On April 7, the market of liquid ammonia in Hebei was mainly stable, and the market price changed little compared with yesterday. The quotation of large manufacturers remained stable today. Dealers deliver goods normally. At present, the pressure of ammonia volume in the region has an upward trend. At present, the market supply and demand are basically balanced. Today, the mainstream price in the region is 4650-4800 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: liquid ammonia stabilized after falling. It is expected that the region will still maintain a differentiation trend affected by public health events, but under the influence of the peak season of agricultural demand, liquid ammonia will still operate at a high level in the short term.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market rebounded slightly. As of April 6, the average market price of domestic PTA in East China was 6230 yuan / ton, up 2.85% from the previous trading day and 39.83% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 6168, up 140, or 2.32%

A 700000 ton PTA unit in East China is scheduled to be overhauled in the evening of April 6, and a 2.2 million ton PTA unit in Northeast China is scheduled to be overhauled on April 15 (originally scheduled to be overhauled on April 10). At present, the operating rate of PTA industry is around 74%, and there are few circulating spot goods.

On April 5, the international crude oil futures market closed down. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $101.96/barrel, down US $1.32 or 1.3%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $106.64/barrel, down US $0.89 or 0.8%. Macroscopically, affected by the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates, the rise of the US dollar affected the valuation of oil prices. On the demand side, market participants expressed concern about the slowdown in demand caused by public health events, and oil prices were under pressure. But at the same time, the supply side was subject to Western sanctions against Russia, resulting in damage to output, and supply concerns limited the decline in oil prices.

Due to the pressure of inventory and cash flow, some factories in the downstream started to reduce the burden and production, and the operating rate of the industry fell below 88%. Disturbed by the epidemic situation, the demand for terminal weaving is weak, and the orders in the peak textile season are less than expected, resulting in polyester demand, inventory situation is not optimistic, and there are some variables in the production of new polyester production capacity.

Business analysts believe that the current high level of international oil prices has been adjusted, but PTA costs have not been significantly loosened. In addition, mainstream PTA suppliers contracted to reduce supply in April, and the spot is still strong. However, the demand consumer side continues to be depressed, and adverse factors are transmitted upward, resulting in polyester profit loss and reduced operating load. The joint production reduction of polyester factories will be implemented in early April. Polyester operation is expected to decline, and the demand for PTA rigid demand and spare warehouse will be weakened. Therefore, it is expected that PTA price will fall.

On March 30, the crude benzene commodity index was 107.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.44% from the highest point of 131.84 in the cycle (January 28, 2013), and up 252.10% from the lowest point of 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In March 2022, the crude benzene market fluctuated and went up. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 6533 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6749 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 3.31%.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

March 3, 8200.,+300

March 4, 8500.,+300

March 7, 8750.,+250

March 9, 8900.,+150

March 14, 8600.,-300

March 16, 8200.,-400

March 22, 8400.,+200

March 24, 8600.,+200

On March 24, 2022, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was increased by 200 yuan / ton and 8600 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: Jincheng Petrochemical offers 8400 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8503 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8450 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 8500 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: affected by the uncertainty of geopolitical situation, crude oil showed an overall upward trend this month, and the price fluctuated widely. The United States and its allies discussed sanctions on Russian energy, deepening market concerns about supply risks. As of March 28, Brent rose 11.49 USD / barrel, or 11.38%; WTI rose $10.24/barrel, or 10.7%. On March 30, the price of international crude oil futures rebounded. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $107.82/barrel, up US $3.58 or 3.4%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.44/barrel, up US $3.73 or 3.5%. Data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories fell continuously, indicating that supply is still tight; In addition, the market is worried that Western sanctions against Russia continue to escalate, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still difficult to improve in the short term, and the risk of supply interruption remains in the future.

Basically, due to geopolitical factors, crude oil continued to rise as a whole this month. Driven by the rising cost, the price of pure benzene rose by more than 10% in early March. However, crude oil continued to rise, pure benzene and its downstream profit space were compressed, some units stopped to reduce the burden, and the demand for pure benzene was weak. Superimposed on the impact of domestic public health events, the transportation in many places is limited, the inventory of enterprises in some regions is accumulated, and the price drops rapidly from a high level. Late this month, in the face of market concerns about the increased risk of oil supply, crude oil prices rose again, and pure benzene rebounded with crude oil. However, weak demand and blocked transportation limited the increase. This month was greatly affected by the disturbance of crude oil. At the beginning of the month, the strong rise of crude oil price led to the rise of industrial chain price. After the beginning of the month, with the decline of crude oil price and the correction of crude benzene price, the crude benzene price fell again near the end of the month. At present, some downstream hydrobenzene enterprises have entered the maintenance period, and the demand for crude benzene has declined slightly. Near the end of the month, the bidding price of crude benzene in Shandong is 6940 ~ 6945 yuan / ton.

In terms of commencement: the overall commencement of coking enterprises this month is still low. At the beginning of this month, due to the influence of environmental protection and heating season, the production was routinely limited. At the end of the month, affected by poor transportation, coke shipment was blocked, some coke enterprises passively limited production, and the output decreased slightly.

If crude oil continues to rise, the operating load of pure benzene may continue to decline under higher cost pressure. The supply and demand of main downstream styrene is still weak, which restricts the price of pure benzene. Overall, the trend of pure benzene in April mainly followed the trend of crude oil. In terms of supply and demand, at present, the operation of coking enterprises is slightly low. With the introduction of policies, the transportation problem may be alleviated to a certain extent. At that time, the operation of coking enterprises will be improved to a certain extent, and the downstream demand is generally stable. It is expected that the price of crude benzene will still follow the trend of pure benzene. The future market will focus on the impact of international crude oil situation, external disk, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics, demand side changes and other changes on the price of pure benzene.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic carbon black quotation was 9750 yuan / ton on March 31.

In terms of cost, this month, the price of domestic high-temperature coal tar was consolidated, with both ups and downs, and the overall price was high. Despite the recent poor operation of downstream products and the large losses of deep processing and carbon black plants, the start-up increased slowly, the demand for coal coke oil was still strong, coupled with the fact that coke enterprises were still limiting production to a certain extent, the market inventory was low, and the willingness of downstream factories to replenish storage was relatively strong, Therefore, the tight supply and demand pattern of coal tar market is significant. As one of the main downstream of coal tar, carbon black has no choice but to accept the increase, but the loss situation intensifies and the cost pressure of carbon black enterprises is high.

Demand: at the end of March, the overall operating load of domestic tire enterprises continued to be high, and the demand for carbon black in the tire market was relatively strong. In other rubber products and plastic masterbatch industries, affected by the high cost of raw materials, enterprises have general purchasing enthusiasm. With the gradual consumption of raw material inventory, the demand for carbon black procurement has increased, and the market price of carbon black has increased one after another in two weeks. The international crude oil price has remained high, and the production cost of foreign carbon black enterprises has soared. In this case, the number of carbon black export orders has increased significantly. According to the feedback of mainstream carbon black enterprises, the price and quantity of carbon black export orders have increased significantly recently, and the orders received by carbon black manufacturers are inclined. It is expected that April may have a great impact on the supply of domestic carbon black market.

At present, the inventory digestion of carbon black factory is obvious, the logistics and transportation cost increases significantly, and the delivery of carbon black factory is slow, and the customers who order slowly in the early stage are more passive. It is expected that this situation will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. It has seriously affected the commencement and shipment speed of carbon black plant, and the future market trend is still uncertain. Business analysts believe that more attention should be paid to the overall market commencement and logistics transportation.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1195 yuan / ton on March 1 and 1883 yuan / ton on March 31. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 57.60% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate rose sharply this month. In the middle and early days of March, the price of ammonium sulfate rose continuously, with an increase of 600-800 yuan / ton, and the market rose strongly. As the price of urea at home and abroad continues to rise, it is good for the market of ammonium sulfate. Downstream enterprises purchase intensively, and the atmosphere in the venue heats up rapidly. In late March, the price of ammonium sulfate fluctuated slightly after falling. As of March 31, the factory price of ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is about 1850-1700 yuan / mainstream ammonium sulfate, and the factory price of ammonium sulfate in Shandong Province is about 1850-1700 tons. Hexene grade ammonium sulfate, the ex factory quotation in Shandong is 1900-2050 yuan / ton.

In the downstream compound fertilizer market this month, due to the rising price of compound fertilizer raw materials, most compound fertilizer enterprises suspended their quotation. Most of the participants were optimistic, with a strong rising atmosphere, and the willingness of enterprises to support prices was obvious. Due to the continuous rise of urea price and the strengthening of resistance in the downstream of urea, the rise of urea drives the sharp rise of ammonium sulfate Market. The downstream compound fertilizer operates at a high level.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business society believes that the current market atmosphere of ammonium sulfate is weaker than before, and the price of ammonium sulfate is adjusted slightly. The supply of ammonium sulfate in the site is sufficient. With the release of domestic and foreign demand, it is expected that the high-level consolidation and operation of ammonium sulfate Market will be the main in the short term.