Corn prices continued to decline. Under the pressure of continuous supply of feed wheat, continuous input of import auction, shutdown of deep processing and decline of feed demand on a month on month basis, the overall atmosphere of short-term corn market is still weak, and the cost is low, and the domestic ethanol market is running. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of July 12, the domestic ethanol market price was 6887 yuan / ton, with a month on month drop of 0.54% and a year-on-year rise of 14.55%.

The domestic ethanol market is weak. In Northeast China, the ethanol industry is in a weak position, and the small factories are in a positive attitude; The price of East China and Shandong is stable, and the quotation of enterprises is stable; The price of ethanol in Anhui Province is down, and the price of enterprises is low; In Henan Province, the price of ethanol has little change; The quotation of ethanol in Dongguan port in South China is weak, and the market transaction is light; The price of ethanol in Zhanjiang is low, and the downstream is purchased on demand; The price in Guangxi is high, the quotation of enterprises is stable, and the downstream demand is insufficient.

In terms of raw materials, the overall trend of corn prices in July is more obvious. However, the current government level is determined to reduce the price of corn, which will still exert pressure on the price of corn. In the downstream, the domestic ethyl acetate Market is slightly weak. In the early stage, the market price continued the periodic downward trend, and the price of raw material acetic acid fell sharply, the power of ethyl acetate itself was insufficient, the demand side and cost were both bad, and the market was passive and weak in stages.

Latest price trends of ethanol market in different regions:

Region, category, price

Shandong Province General level 6660-6700 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Superior grade of corn 6900-7500 yuan / ton

Shandong Province Corn without water 7500 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 7000-7050 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 6450-6500 yuan / ton

Anhui Province Cassava general grade About 6800 yuan / ton

Anhui Province anhydrous About 7600-7650 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7300 yuan / ton

Guangxi region 95% alcohol 6850-7150 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Anhydrous ethanol 7600-7800 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Cassava alcohol About 7150 yuan / ton

Guangdong area 95% ethanol About 6950-7200 yuan / ton

Guangdong area Anhydrous cassava ethanol About 7750-7900 yuan / ton

Henan Province Top grade 6830-6850 yuan / ton, tax included

Henan Province Anhydrous ethanol 7400-7650 yuan / ton including tax

Hebei Province General level 6900-6950 yuan / ton

Hebei Province No water in coal 7600-7700 yuan / ton

Sichuan area Corn alcohol About 7550-7650 yuan / ton, including tax

Yunnan Province Molasses alcohol 6950-7100 yuan / ton

Yunnan Province Cassava alcohol About 6900 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang area General grade of corn alcohol 6350 yuan / ton including tax

Jilin area Ordinary alcohol 6450 yuan / ton including tax

The price of dry cassava is weak, while the price of corn is weak. The price is weak under the weak downstream demand. Business community ethanol analysts expect that in the short term, the domestic ethanol market is still slightly weak.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the domestic glycine price continued to rise this week, with 2333 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 24000 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 2.86%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of business association, glycine price continued to rise this week, reaching the highest level in nearly a decade. Mainstream factories continue to stop reporting and complete orders from regular customers. It is understood that the latest transaction price in the current market is 25000 yuan / ton, the overall supply of goods in the market is limited, the price is high, and the market attention has increased.

Demand side: due to the reduction of glyphosate production abroad and the peak demand season, the price of glyphosate in the downstream reaches has reached a ten-year high, and the current price is close to 50000 yuan / ton, with strong demand support.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business news agency think that the demand side is good, but the current glycine price is on the high side. Considering the acceptability of downstream, it is expected that the glycine market will fluctuate in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of July 7, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 530 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on July 1, and increased by 20 yuan / ton, or 3.92%, compared with that on June 1 (510 yuan / ton).

In July, the domestic phosphorus ore market was stable. At present, the supply of phosphate rock mining enterprises is tight, Guizhou and Hubei regions take the initiative to give priority to orders from old customers, and the quotation of mining enterprises is mostly high and wait-and-see. As of July 7, the price of 30% grade phosphate rock factory in Guizhou is around 440-490 yuan / ton, and the phosphate rock market is running smoothly. In Hubei area, the price of 28% ammonium phosphate ore ship plate in Hubei area is 500-520 yuan / ton. The market of phosphate ore in Guangxi is stable, and the quotation of 28% grade phosphate ore factory is around 380-430 yuan / ton.

In July, the market price of yellow phosphorus in the downstream was stable, with a slight upward trend. The situation of new orders received in the downstream was acceptable, and the enterprise mentality was relatively stable. At present, the factory started to improve, and the yellow phosphorus enterprises in Yunnan region resumed production one after another. The market price was mainly stable temporarily.

For downstream phosphoric acid, at present, the domestic phosphoric acid market maintains a stable consolidation operation in July, with a small number of enterprises supplying orders from old customers, and the high-end quotations fall sporadically.

In July, after the domestic market price of monoammonium phosphate rose sharply at the end of June, the market price of monoammonium phosphate continues to be high and stable.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

In the near future, with the increase of yellow phosphorus start-up in the downstream of phosphate rock, the demand for raw phosphorus ore will also increase. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the market price of China’s phosphorus ore will continue to maintain a high level.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of June 30, the average factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 8100 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on June 1 (8800 yuan / ton), the average price decreased by 700 yuan / ton, or 7.95%.

In early June, the domestic butanone market went down sharply. Under the imbalance of supply and demand, the contradiction between supply and demand gradually intensified. The market began to show signs of bidding, and the price fell all the way. On June 16, the reference average price of domestic butanone was 7700 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 1100 yuan / ton compared with the price at the beginning of June, with a decrease of 12.5% in half a month.

In late June, the butanone market initially maintained a weak and stable operation. Near the end of the month, supported by the maintenance of butanone equipment in Lanzhou and other regions in the next July and August, the spot supply of butanone began to be tight at the end of June, and the market price began to rise steadily at the end of the month. As of June 30, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the average factory reference price of domestic butanone was 8100 yuan / ton, Compared with the market low price in mid June, the average price increased by 400 yuan / ton, or 5.19%. Compared with the price in early June, the average price decreased by 700 yuan / ton, or 7.95%.

On the upstream side, in June, the overall LPG market in Shandong Province went up in shock. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of LPG on June 30 was 4283 yuan / ton, up 3.38% compared with that on June 1 (4143.33 yuan / ton).

Future market analysis of butanone

At the end of June, the butanone market was in short supply. In July, the maintenance of butanone equipment in Lanzhou and Shandong continued. In the short term, the market supply could not be effectively alleviated. Therefore, the butanone Data Engineer of business society believes that after entering July, the domestic butanone market will continue to rise at the end of June, and the market price is expected to continue to rise.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (July 5): RMB 4666.67 / ton

On July 5, the factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose, up 66.67 yuan / ton, or 1.45% compared with that of July 2. The raw material, orchid carbon, is well supported by the high price consolidation of calcium carbide. Downstream PVC market recently slightly increased, and the installation maintenance completed, downstream customers to calcium carbide procurement enthusiasm increased.

The market is expected to see the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rise slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 4700 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 2, the average price of domestic power grade lithium iron phosphate was 50000.00 yuan / ton. In the near future, the market has been running smoothly, with a narrow range of lithium iron phosphate finishing, no obvious price fluctuation, and the downstream just needs to purchase, so the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

This week, the market price of LiFePO4 is mainly stable, with stable trend. The downstream just needs to purchase, and the upstream lithium carbonate runs smoothly. The main supply contract customers are the main ones, and the number of new customers is limited. The downstream just needs to purchase. At present, the mainstream quotation range of LiFePO4 power type is 48000-52000 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of energy storage type LiFePO4 is 42000-46000 yuan / ton, The price range of upstream battery grade lithium carbonate is 87000-91000 yuan / ton, and the price range of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 80000-85000 yuan / ton. The upstream lithium carbonate mainly runs smoothly and the trend is relatively stable.

On July 1, the chemical industry index was 1049 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 3.23% from 1084 points (2021-05-13), the highest point in the cycle, and up 75.42% from 598 points, the lowest point on April 8, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now

Business community LiFePO4 analysts believe: LiFePO4 runs smoothly, supply and demand are balanced, contract customers are the main customers, and the fluctuation range is limited（ If you want to get more information about goods and master the price of goods, you can subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of June 30, the average price reference of the market quotation of silicone DMC in the mainstream area of data monitoring was 30566 yuan / ton, and the average price increased by 1333 yuan / ton, up 4.56% compared with that of April 1 (the average price of silicone DMC reference is 29233 yuan / ton).

April market cold silicone DMC down the way

At the beginning of the second quarter, the domestic silicone DMC market was in a relatively high position compared with the beginning of the year. According to the data monitoring of business society, on April 1, the average factory reference price of domestic silicone DMC was 29233 yuan / ton. After the Qingming Festival, the market of silicone DMC has experienced a sharp decline. In the early April, a large factory in Shandong Province has cut the factory quotation of silicone DMC twice, and the low-end quotation to silicone DMC has dropped to 26400 yuan / T, which is 2200 yuan / t lower than the maximum before the Qingming Festival. Other monomer factories also cut the factory quotation of silicone DMC by 300-500 yuan / T, and the phenomenon of sealing in the field increases, The wait-and-see mood increased, the performance of new orders was poor, the market of silicone DMC continued to decline all the way. Near the end of April, the low-end quotation of silicone DMC fell to 25700 yuan / T. according to the data of business agency, on April 30, the average price of organosilicon DMC was RMB 27600 / T, and the average price was down 1633 yuan / T compared with the price on April 1, a decrease of 5.59% in the month.

May market continued to fall deep and prices fell to a low in the second quarter

During the labor day in May, the market of silicone DMC maintained stable operation. After the labor Festival, the market of silicone DMC was further down in cliff type due to the lack of demand, and the market was dominated by the sound of profit and void. After the festival, the inventory of monomer plant accumulated, and the phenomenon of profit delivery increased. As of May 16, the main market quotation reference of silicone DMC was 26000-27200 yuan / ton, the average price was 26566 yuan / T, and the low-end price was 25500 yuan / T. compared with the beginning of the month, the average price fell by 1000 yuan / ton.

In late May, the domestic silicone DMC market finally ushered in a short return temperature. Due to the influence of the environmental policy, the start rate of monomer plants in the latter ten days has decreased, and the available spot is tight in the field. Since 17, some factories raised the factory price of silicone DMC. On 23, the average price of organosilicon DMC rose back to 27100 yuan / ton, but the sustained upward support was insufficient, 25 days, The market of silicone DMC fell again, the low-end price was lowered to 25800 yuan / ton, and the average market price also fell to the lowest level since the second quarter, referring to 26433 yuan / ton. Price downturn has brought more attention to the on-site mood, many manufacturers continue to close the offer, downstream also take a cautious attitude towards the market. As of May 31, the factory price reference of silicone DMC was 26000-27300 yuan / ton, and the average price reference was 26666 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on May 1, the average price was down by 767 yuan / T, down 3.38%.

The decline followed by two months of the downturn and the final rise in June, the silicone DMC rose better

In June, the silicone DMC market, which has been in a downturn for two months, has finally ushered in steady growth. With the support of many good, the domestic silicone DMC rose rapidly in June. First, in the raw material aspect, the high-level operation of silicon metal gives effective cost support to DMC. Secondly, in terms of demand, downstream demand gradually stabilized, with the transaction order increasing, and some organosilicon DMC monomer factories were arranged to mid June. The overall market investment atmosphere is good. Thirdly, on June 9, an emergency occurred in a factory in Xinjiang, which had a certain impact on the short-term supply of silicone DMC and the mentality of the silicone DMC industry. At the beginning of June, the market of silicone DMC had gradually returned to temperature, which accelerated the market warming. Since the beginning of June, the spot supply of silicone DMC was more intense, which can be called “one single difficulty”, Market price also rose significantly. On the 17th, the average market price of silicone DMC exceeded 30000 yuan / T, creating a high price since the second quarter. Then the market market has a small fluctuation and downward, but until the end of June, the silicone DMC market as a whole continued to operate at a high level.

Looking back to the second quarter, the market ended up in the whole second quarter, supported by the sharp increase in market in June. As of June 30, according to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of silicone DMC market is RMB 30566 / T, and the average price is 3900 yuan / ton, up 14.62% in the month compared with the price on June 1. Compared with April 1, the average price rose 1333 yuan / ton, and the second quarter was up 4.56%.

Upstream, at the end of June, the domestic metal silicon market rose slightly and steadily. On June 30, the average price of domestic metal silicon (441#) market was 14350 yuan / ton, up 0.58% compared with the average market price of 14266.67 yuan / T on June 30. In terms of inventory, the northern factories temporarily shut down, and Yunnan limited electricity for nearly a month of the window period, although some silicon plants have been resumed, but the overall spot is still not much; In terms of cost, the cost of power consumption in silicon plant increased due to the increase of the electricity price in the high water period in Yunnan Province, and the coke cost of the stack raw material increased by 22.57%, and the possibility of the silicon price decline in Yunnan in the short term was small; In terms of output, the start rate of Xinjiang silicon plant is not high, and the supply of production output of large-scale factories is reduced. The high silicon price operation is caused by the comprehensive shutdown of large factories, Yunnan power cost and Xinjiang current situation.

On the 30th, the price of silicon in each region was as follows: the price range of silicon metal in Huangpu port area was 14500-14600 yuan / ton, and the average price was 14550 yuan / ton; Tianjin port area ා 441 metal silicon price range 14500-14600 yuan / ton, average price 14550 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Kunming area is 14200-14300 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14250 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Sichuan is 14100-14200 yuan / ton, and the average price is 14150 yuan / ton; Fujian Province ා 441 metal trading range 13400-13600 yuan / ton, average price 13500 yuan / ton; The price range of silicon metal in Shanghai is 15000-15200 yuan / ton, with an average price of 15100 yuan / ton.

Downstream, the second quarter market of raw rubber and silica gel of downstream products of silicone DMC has also risen and closed in the second quarter, which is also in June. As of June 30, the market reference price of domestic raw rubber is 32500-33500 yuan / T, and the market reference price of domestic rubber is about 27500-29300 yuan / ton, The market reference price of domestic dimethyl silicone oil is 32000-33500 yuan / ton, and the reference price of 107 rubber in China is 31000-31500 yuan / ton.

Post potential prediction

At present, the overall trading climate of domestic silicone DMC market continues to be positive. Especially in the late June, the factory collectively maintained a high price offer, and the downstream price also kept high, supporting each other in the upstream and downstream. Therefore, the analysts of silicone DMC of the business agency believe that in July, the domestic organic silicon DMC market can continue to operate at a high level.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the spot price of domestic polyester staple fiber rebounded at the end of June, and the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 7081 yuan / ton as of June 30, up 1.87% compared with the price of 6951 at the beginning of June, up 6.78% year on year. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers generally increased by 100-150 yuan / ton.

Futures market, short fiber main futures (2109) closed at 7194 early on June 30, up 222, or 3.18% from the closing of 6972 in May. In June, the international oil price rose almost unilaterally, and by the end of June, New York crude oil futures rose 9.61%, while PTA, the staple fiber raw material, followed by the rising crude oil price, rose 6.87%, but the staple of short fiber ethylene glycol futures fell 1.58% this month.

Although June is the traditional off-season of polyester staple fiber, with the rising of raw material cost, the continuous increase of repair of short fiber unit in June led to the decline of capacity. In addition, the epidemic affected the return of Southeast Asian orders, domestic polyester staple fiber production and marketing was better than expected, and spot price rose at the end of June.

2、 Factors affecting prices

1. PTA: the domestic PTA spot market price rose along with the crude oil price in June. As of June 30, the average price of the spot market was 5101 yuan / ton, up 8.65% from the beginning of the month, up 43.53% year on year. In June, the price center of crude oil moved up continuously, which led to the rising of downstream commodity prices, and the PTA cost support was enhanced. The lower polyester weaving market started in June was affected by order backflow than expected. In June, PTA plant maintenance was more, and expected in summer, there were still more equipment maintenance. PTA Market in short term presents a trend of inventory removal.

2. glycol: domestic glycol spot market price rose at the bottom in June, and the price at the end of the month was almost the same as that at the beginning of the month. As of June 30, the average spot market price was 5016 yuan / ton, up 0.52% compared with the beginning of the month, up 36.19% year on year. Although the crude oil shock this month is strong, the trend of ethylene price and coal price is weak. In this month, the storage of glycol port increased a little, the operation of domestic units changed greatly this month, the unit was overhauled and restarted, and the new unit was put into operation.

3. polyester yarn: in June, the domestic polyester yarn market was in a narrow range of shocks, and the price remained stable. As of June 30, the average market price of polyester yarn was 14100 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of June, up 7.96% year on year. With the coming of summer, the textile market ushered in the traditional off-season. At present, the overseas situation is not clear, the return order is difficult to continue, and the release of domestic demand is slightly insufficient. In late June, the spot trade of fabrics increased month on month, while the bulk test sheets of fabrics in early winter increased in part, and the overall market transaction will show a small upward trend.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts at business agency said international oil prices rose in June, followed by PTA and glycol upstream. The repair of short fiber equipment and the partial return of orders in Southeast Asia affected by the epidemic situation in the downstream, and the domestic short fiber production and sales and price rose. In the future market, summer is still the traditional off-season of the industrial chain, and the return order in Southeast Asia is unstable. If the crude oil is still strong and the equipment maintenance is balanced, the short-term polyester staple fiber may be in a strong oscillation trend.