1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the domestic mainstream styrene prices fell after rising this week. The price of sample enterprises of business agency was 10000.00 yuan / ton last Friday (May 7), and the price of sample enterprises on Tuesday (May 11) was 10300.00 yuan / ton, up 3.0%, and the price of sample enterprises on Friday (May 14) was 10150.00 yuan / ton, which fell back, up 1.5% compared with the previous Friday. By Friday, sample companies were up 95.19 percent from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: styrene market price rose first and then fell this week. On May 7, Shandong styrene closed near 10000-10100 yuan / ton, and around 10500-10600 yuan / ton on May 11, up 500 yuan / ton. On May 14, 10300-10350 yuan / ton fell 200 yuan / ton. Styrene in the cost support and tight spot supply driven, spot maintain strong.

On the raw materials side, crude oil fell after a big rise in the week, and the overall price rose to a high in the year. On the basic level, oil prices still have strong support. From the data of US commercial crude oil inventory last week, crude oil inventories continued to decrease, US exports also declined, China’s data also showed a bright performance, and oil import also showed a growth momentum, indicating that the recovery process of major economies in the world was accelerated. It is expected that the short-term oil price will intensify the shock, and the medium and long-term oil price will still have a positive momentum.

In terms of pure benzene, the price of pure benzene increased, affected by the centralized maintenance of the pure benzene plant and the new demand in the downstream. The supply of domestic pure benzene was short. The price of the site was spared for sale, and the market and Sinopec listed prices continued to rise, supporting the styrene price. As of Friday (May 14), the main flow price of pure benzene was 8230.00 yuan / ton, which was higher than 7600.00 yuan / ton on Friday (May 7), up 630 yuan / ton, The increase was 7.44 per cent.

In the aspect of ethylene, the external price of ethylene this week rose and stabilized. As of Friday (May 14), the mainstream quotation of ethylene was 1198.75 yuan / ton, up 42.75 yuan / ton, or 3.7% compared with 1156.00 yuan / ton on Friday (May 7). Earlier this week, prices in Japan rose sharply as a result of the drop in load or planned overhaul of multiple cracking units in Japan and South Korea, and the supply of goods was supported by a decrease in supply. But the demand of polyethylene and glycol in the downstream is general, which is slightly inconsistent with high price raw materials, which restricts the price rise of ethylene and stabilizes after the price rises.

In terms of inventory, as of May 10, the styrene port inventory of East China main port was 66300 tons, up 13000 tons on a month basis; There are 35800 tons of commodity inventory, 57 million tons on month basis, and port inventory is still low. Before May 20, 15000 tons of ships were sent to East China wharf of styrene, and the terminal will continue to go to the warehouse in the next two weeks. In terms of domestic production, the average start of the week was 83.97%, down 4.26% compared with last week, and the overall commencement was reduced, including parking of Ningbo Keyuan, Anhui Haoyuan and Baling Petrochemical. In terms of the new capacity, the 360000 tons / year plant in Daxie, Ningbo, is planned to produce on May 14; At present, the load of the 450000 T / a unit of Huatai Shengfu is 70%, and the load is slowly raised; The ethylbenzene of Hongrun 120000 T / a plant of Sinochem has passed the standard, and styrene will be produced in the period. The domestic supply has increased slightly, but the overall supply is tight.

Downstream, the downstream price of styrene rose steadily this week, but the trading atmosphere was general. In the PS market, the main ex factory quotation of East China PS as of Friday (May 14) was 10733.33 yuan / ton, up 266.66 yuan / ton, representing a 2.55% increase compared with 10466.67 yuan / ton on Friday (May 7). This week, the PS industry operating rate remained stable and the deal was weak.

EPS market, after the overall increase of this week, EPS market stabilized. As of Friday (May 14), the main ex factory quotation of EPS in East China was 11475.00 yuan / ton, up 375 yuan / ton, up 3.38% compared with 11100.00 yuan / ton on Friday (May 7). EPS start rate increased this week, parking device resumed normal production in the early stage, with small market transaction orders as the main part, and the overall market delivery and investment performance was general.

In the ABS market, the main ex factory quotation of ABS Zhejiang as of Friday (May 14) was 18650.00 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton, or 1.08% compared with 18450.00 yuan / ton on Friday (May 7). This week, the domestic ABS operating rate has declined slightly, the end-users maintain high cost pressure, and the purchase operation is just needed. The overall transaction is general.

3、 Future outlook

At the cost end, crude oil is relatively strong, the spot tension pattern of pure benzene is unchanged, the price is high, the decline is slow, and the cost support is still strong. Some styrene repair plants will resume production next week, and domestic production supply of styrene will increase. However, there is still a forecast of stock decline in port next week. Styrene inventory is still low and spot circulation is still tight. Therefore, styrene will still be in a strong shock in the short term driven by the cost support and tight spot supply.

According to the data of the commodity list of the business society, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong has risen recently. On May 11, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1370.00 yuan / ton, and on May 12, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1400.00 yuan / ton, up 2.19%. The current price has increased by 5.00% month on month and 59.09% year on year.

As of May 12, the mainstream market price of formaldehyde in Central China was about 1320 yuan / ton, that in North China was 1205 yuan / ton, that in Northwest China was 1350 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 1363 yuan / ton. Recently, the formaldehyde Market Trading atmosphere is good, the transaction is positive, and the formaldehyde market is on the rise.

Upstream methanol situation: methanol market is mainly rising, and the negotiated price of methanol market in southern Shandong is up 30-50 yuan / ton to 2620-2650 yuan / ton, with cash withdrawal from the factory. Linyi receives the local goods to negotiate the price to 2610-2620 yuan / ton and deliver them to the spot exchange, while the logistics goods offer the price to 2570-2580 yuan / ton and deliver them to the spot exchange. Shandong methanol Lubei market turnover is about 2530-2550 yuan / ton, sent to cash. The turnover of methanol market in Shandong Luzhong region is generally stable at 2520-2540 yuan / ton, delivered to spot exchange, with general turnover and slight fluctuation of mood. Methanol market continues to rise, forming a strong support for formaldehyde.

At present, the raw materials of the downstream plate field are generally rising, which makes them have no resistance to the rising of formaldehyde Market for the time being. The formaldehyde manufacturers are forced by the cost pressure to keep up with the rising, the manufacturers ship smoothly, and there is no inventory pressure, so the formaldehyde Market is rising.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol market is on the rise, and the downstream plate factories are willing to accept the goods. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts from the chemical branch of business society expect that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly rise in the near future.

International oil prices rose, but the severe epidemic situation in India restrained the rise, and the price rise of asphalt market was average. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of May 10, the average spot price of domestic asphalt was 3206 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 2.78% and a year-on-year increase of 45.59%. Today, the domestic asphalt futures price opened down 4 yuan / ton, the downstream demand of asphalt is still weak, and the domestic asphalt spot market still maintains consolidation shock in the short term.

International oil prices rose, but the severe epidemic situation in India restrained the rise, and the price rise of asphalt market was average. At present, the domestic asphalt market is mainly stable as a whole. Affected by the expected price rise, the enthusiasm of downstream goods preparation is acceptable, and there are many inquiries.

In the short run, the shortage of resources in the southern region is expected to drive the spot price of asphalt to rise, but the future rainfall will still have an impact on the actual demand. The supply and demand game, business community asphalt analysts predict that the short-term asphalt market consolidation is the main.

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price trend of TDI market decreased slightly this week. The average price of East China market at the weekend was 15666.67 yuan / ton, down 0.63% compared with 15766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 6.47% month on month.

This week, the domestic TDI market was weak. The market was mainly on the wait-and-see side. The atmosphere in the market was weak. The enthusiasm of downstream inquiry and buying was not high. The quotations of dealers in East China were firm. The quotations of manufacturers were high and low. The market mentality was short. The market trend was on the wait-and-see side. As of the 30th, the quotation of TDI domestic products in East China market was 14300-14400 yuan / ton, For Shanghai goods, please refer to 14500-14700 yuan / ton.

The price of toluene rose slightly, and the strong trend of crude oil supported the price range fluctuation of toluene spot market in the week. As of the 30th, the domestic average price was 5697 yuan / ton, up 0.46% in the week. The spot supply of toluene market was sufficient, but the downstream demand was weak, and the market was mainly on the lookout.

According to TDI data analyst of business society, the domestic TDI market is weak, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The downstream inquiry enthusiasm is not high, and the demand is insufficient. It is expected that the TDI market will be frozen in the future, and attention will be paid to the change of supplier information.