I. price trend:

According to a large number of data from the business club, the market of PA6 in the first week of December was stable for the time being, and the prices of various brands were up and down. The main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 is about 12666.67 yuan / ton, which is the same as the level at the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

The domestic market of PA6 upstream caprolactam continued to decline this week due to weak terminal demand. On the upstream side, the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak, the confidence in the industry is insufficient, the terminal procurement is cautious, and the market is down. At present, trading is cold and weak in the short term. The domestic pure benzene market, the East China pure benzene market remains firm, the import market negotiation goes up, the on-site wait-and-see increases, and the external market gains have not produced an effective boost. The upstream raw material cost pressure is still on, the downstream slice market atmosphere is cold, production and sales are flat, and the demand side has not changed. Although the equipment maintenance enterprises have been restarted one after another, there is still resistance. It is expected that the decline of caprolactam will gradually slow down in the later period, with low consolidation as the main trend; the upstream caprolactam will weaken, with poor support for PA6. In addition, at present, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient while the downstream purchase and documentary are insufficient, the volume of transactions is less, and the shipping resistance of merchants is greater. Affected by the above multiple empty, domestic PA6 spot prices have declined. At present, the domestic PA6 production, trade and e-commerce are operating at a low price.

3. Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in early December, the domestic PA6 market was weak and stable, while the spot price was stable for the time being. Upstream caprolactam continued to decline, poor support for PA6 cost end. Downstream factories just need replenishment operation, the demand is flat and the list is light. It is expected that PA6 will continue to be weak in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market is stable. As of December 6, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2152 yuan / ton. The price is 0.12% higher than that of the same period last month and 9.56% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: methanol market in China is stable, with slight adjustment in some areas. Most enterprises in the domestic market offer stable prices, and some units in Southwest China are shut down. Under the tight supply, the market price of methanol in this region has moved up, and some enterprises have stopped selling due to low inventory. In the port market, futures prices continue to move up, supporting the rise of spot prices. In the short term, we need to continue to pay attention to the changes in port inventory.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is light and stable. The company’s offer is stable temporarily, the upstream methanol narrow range finishing operation has no impact on the formaldehyde market temporarily, the downstream market just needs to purchase, and the overall transaction is relatively general. In the near future, there are environmental regulations in some areas, formaldehyde and downstream markets may be lower, and the cost is difficult to support. It is expected that the formaldehyde market will be weak in the short term.

Acetic acid: the atmosphere of domestic acetic acid market is waiting. The price offered by the northwest suppliers still gives way to the profit and aggravates the bearish mentality of the North China market. However, the price offered by the suppliers in the East China and central China markets is temporarily stable and aggravates the wait-and-see mentality of the market. The market is still biased towards supply over demand, and the market is in a passive phase of decline.

Dimethyl ether: the domestic dimethyl ether Market Trading atmosphere improved, and the price went up. At present, the price of dimethyl ether keeps a small rising pace in a short term, but due to no substantial change in terminal demand, after a short replenishment, traders or continuous wait-and-see, there is little room for the price to continue to rise.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of Business Club: on the positive side, supply: some units in Southwest China have been parked and supply in the yard is tight; olefin: new olefin units put into operation in Shandong Province operate smoothly and purchase materials in stock in the near future; futures: the futures market continues to rise, boosting the spot market. On the negative side, inventory: at present, the external price is low, the port has plenty of spot goods, and the inventory is still high; demand: the traditional downstream demand is weak, the local market is not good, and the actual order is loose. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that the domestic methanol market will continue to be consolidated in the short term.

Magnesium market trend

In November, the price of magnesium ingot went down step by step. According to the data of business agency, the average market price of magnesium ingot (9990) as of November 29 was 14133.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.53% compared with the average price of 14650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (09.01). At present, the price has been in the annual trough, which is 17.03% lower than the price at the beginning of the year..

Weak demand magnesium price moves down

In November, the demand for magnesium ingots was relatively weak as a whole, with domestic rigid demand mainly purchasing, and traders mainly waiting or short order fast in and fast out. Although there is a short-term external purchase within the month, the overall purchase volume has not changed significantly.

At present, the actual transaction price of magnesium ingot in the main production area is below 14000 yuan / ton, the price is low, the willingness of some manufacturers to hold up the price is strengthened, and the supply of low-cost goods is reduced compared with the previous period.

According to the tracking data of the business agency, on November 29, 2019, the price range of ex factory cash including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas is as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 13900-14050 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 14100-14200 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 14100-14300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 13950-14100 yuan / ton.

Forecast for future market

In the short term, it is difficult to change the declining trend of fundamentals, but with the low price, approaching the cost line, magnesium companies’ willingness to stand up for the price increases, the long short game will become increasingly fierce, and it is expected that the operation will be stable in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of December 2, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9780 yuan / ton, with a 2.73% increase on a month on month basis and a 7.74% decrease on a year-on-year basis.

II. Market analysis

Products: the BDO market in China is narrowed, the starting load of the factory is steadily increased, coupled with the recent impact of imported goods, the supply side is good and the support is limited, the downstream demand is weak, the market price is reduced, the factory’s intention to support the market continues, the offer is firm, and the market single negotiation atmosphere is general. East China and North China’s mainstream negotiations refer to 9000-9400 yuan / ton bulk water delivery, and the barrel acceptance negotiation price is 9900-10500 yuan / ton. South China’s mainstream negotiation refers to 9100-9400 yuan / ton, and barrel acceptance negotiation price is 10000-10500 yuan / ton.

In terms of the market, the BDO market in North China was in a high-level consolidation, and the factory had a strong attitude towards the market. The downstream just needed to make up the position. The buying enthusiasm was low, and the resistance to high prices was strong, and the on-site waiting atmosphere was strong. The BDO market in East China was narrowed and the on-site start-up load was slightly increased. However, the factory inventory was not under pressure, and the intention to support the market continued. The offer from the middlemen was stable, the downstream demand was general, the price depression was strong, and the on-site small single negotiation price was on the high side. The BDO market in South China was in shock and consolidation, the downstream demand was weak, the buying enthusiasm was low, the factory’s intention to keep the price was high, the price was low, and the atmosphere of large single negotiation was relatively cold.

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the northwest price this week may be relatively strong; pay attention to the external procurement of new MTO units in Luxi; Shaanxi Kaiyue and Yigao units plan to resume sales this week; Ma narrow range adjustment. Although last week partial snow, but enterprise inventory is not high, this week Inner Mongolia and other places price or relatively strong. The downstream is cautious in receiving goods, and the trader’s mentality is stable for the time being. Port inventory remained high, arbitrage between port and Shandong existed in different stages, and Ma was adjusted in a narrow range. It is expected that the methanol market in China will be mainly consolidated in a narrow range in the short term.

Calcium carbide: the market price range of calcium carbide in Ningxia is sorted out. The main factory price of the first-class calcium carbide is about 2550-2650 yuan / ton. The overall operating rate of the enterprise is acceptable, and the downstream reception level is acceptable. It is expected that the calcium carbide Market in Ningxia will not fluctuate much in the later stage.

III. future forecast

On the whole, on the positive side, the manufacturers are willing to support the market, and some of them are under maintenance. On the negative side, downstream demand is weak. BDO analysts predict that the short-term domestic BDO market is stagnant and needs to focus on the restart of Tianye and downstream buying.