I. price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of November 11, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9520 yuan / ton, which was stable on a month on month basis, down 10.61% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the domestic BDO market has been reorganized horizontally, and the cost end support is weak. However, the maintenance of some factories is good, the supplier’s attitude of supporting the market continues, the offer is high, the downstream demand is weak, small orders are just needed to make up the position, and the focus of market negotiation fluctuates little.

In terms of market, BDO market in North China has maintained stability, Heci and Meizhouwan units have been overhauled, the factory mentality has been supported, the intention to support the market has continued, the downstream market entry caution has increased, and the focus of on-site transactions has been temporarily stable. The BDO market in East China is stagnant and consolidated, with weak cost support. However, there is no pressure on inventory. The factory is in a strong market mentality, with high quotations and weak downstream demand. Small orders are just needed to make up positions, and the atmosphere for large orders in the market is cold. BDO market in South China has been reorganized at a high level, with stable business mentality, still in a strong market mentality and weak intention of low output. The downstream just needs replenishment, and the small single negotiation in the field is more high-end.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol and water rising in Northwest are still serious. The benchmark price of Northwest enterprises such as Inner Mongolia fell to around 1820, but some traders wait and see. Pay attention to the receiving situation of underground tourism enterprises such as Shandong. At present, the decline is not limited. Most enterprises may operate cautiously. Ma continues to explore the bottom, and the mentality of the industry is general. To sum up, China’s methanol market or weak decline in the short term.

Calcium carbide: the market price of calcium carbide in Hebei Province is temporarily stable. At present, the purchase price of the local first-class product calcium carbide is 2970-2980 yuan / ton, the upstream supply is acceptable, the arrival of the enterprise is normal, the purchase enthusiasm is general, there are many presses, the overall analysis shows that the market price of calcium carbide is expected to be narrow.

III. future forecast

On the positive side, the manufacturer is willing to support the market, and crane coal overhauls. On the negative side, downstream demand continued to be weak. BDO analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic BDO market will wait to be sorted out and pay attention to the restart of Tianye this month.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers fell from 2746.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2713.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.21%, down 7.20% year-on-year from the same period last year. Overall, carbide fell this week, with the carbide commodity index at 71.09 on November 8.

II. Trend analysis

(I) products:

The ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oveganeng’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2760 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of this week; Shaanxi coal industry’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2580 yuan / ton, down 70 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of this week; Neimenggu Zhonglian’s price of calcium carbide at this week was 2770 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of this week; Ningxia Xingping’s price of calcium carbide at the end of this week was 2 yuan / ton 700 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation dropped 50 yuan / ton.

This weekend, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2500-2800 yuan / ton: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2700 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

(II) industrial chain:

Upstream raw material Market: the ex factory price of coke fell slightly this week, from 1633.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1616.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.02%, down 36.85% compared with the same period last year. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly. Compared with last year, the price dropped a lot and the cost support was not enough, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market: PVC factory price slightly increased this week. PVC price rose from 6637.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6670.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, up 0.49%, up 4.33% year on year. PVC market in the lower reaches rose slightly, and customers in the lower reaches were more active in purchasing calcium carbide. As a whole, PVC market rose this week, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

III. future forecast

After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The price of upstream raw materials fell slightly. Compared with last year, the price dropped a lot and the cost support was not enough. However, the PVC market in the downstream began to rise, and the enthusiasm of downstream customers for purchasing calcium carbide increased. The aftermarket forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest will rise in the middle of November.

I. price data:

According to the data monitoring of the business club’s bulk list, this week’s domestic bromine market remained stable at a high level, and the average price of bromine in the week remained at around 30833 yuan / ton, down 7.37% from the same period last year.

II. Cause analysis

Product: this week, the supply and demand of bromine market in China is in a dynamic equilibrium state. The enterprise’s operating rate remains at a high level. The downstream market just needs to be stable. The factory quotation of mainstream bromine is between 30500-31000 yuan / ton. As the weather turns cold, some bromine enterprises will enter the winter break period, and the bromine supply will decline to some extent.

Industry chain: the upstream industry of bromine is mostly stable this week: the weak trend of sulfur market falls by 0.94% in the week, the average price of enterprises is about 686 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of liquid is 520-600 yuan / ton; the caustic soda market is stable in the week, at present about 835 yuan / ton; the caustic soda market is stable in the week, at present, the average price is about 1766 yuan / ton; the sulfuric acid just needs to be better, and the price is stable in the week, at present 306 yuan / ton About. At present, the downstream flame retardant industry of bromine mainly purchases rigid demand, which has a certain positive support for the price of bromine; the pharmaceutical and agricultural intermediates and other industries are under the influence of environmental protection, and the demand side is generally supported.

III. future forecast

According to the bromine industry analysts of business association, at present, the overall supply and demand of bromine market in China is stable, the shipment of enterprises is relatively smooth, and the price of bromine is mainly stable in a short period of time. In the long run, the domestic bromine output will be seasonally reduced, and the decline of the supply end will lead to the price rising trend.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the ex factory price of refrigerant R134a in China fell slightly this week. On October 28, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 23833.33 yuan / ton, and the average weekend (1 day) price was 23666.67 yuan / ton, down 0.7% in the week, down 19.32% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: this week, the market price of R134a in refrigerant market fell slightly, and the overall trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid price continued to decline. The goods delivery situation of manufacturers in the field still did not improve. In addition, the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant maintained a high operating rate, and the domestic spot supply was sufficient. Some manufacturers continued to reduce the factory price, and the cost was negative in the face of refrigerant. At present, the macro-economic downturn, the development of the automobile industry is not optimistic, the demand for refrigerant R134a from major manufacturers in the terminal and air-conditioning industry is flat, and the overall after-sales market is not very active. At present, the trend of R134a is weak, and there is no obvious positive effect. As of November 1, R134a of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. has quoted 26000 yuan / ton, R134a of Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 22000 yuan / ton, R134a of Zhejiang lengwang technology has quoted 23000 yuan / ton, R134a of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 24000 yuan / ton, R134a of Longxun trade has quoted 23500 yuan / ton, R134a of Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 25000 yuan / ton, and R134a of blue planet has quoted 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price of upstream products in domestic hydrofluoric acid market has fallen sharply, the operation of domestic hydrofluoric acid plant is stable, the supply of goods in the site is sufficient, the situation of goods in hydrofluoric acid market is not good, and the market price keeps falling. Downstream terminals, major manufacturers of air conditioning industry and automobile industry do not have high demand for refrigerant R134a, so there is no good support.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 43rd week of 2019 (10.28-11.1), there are 12 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are two kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are dichloromethane (9.58%), sulfuric acid (6.98%) and aniline (4.24%) There are 40 commodities with a decline of 5% or more, accounting for 4.7% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three products with a decline are DMF (- 7.88%), butadiene (- 6.73%) and acrylic acid (- 5.88%) This week’s average was – 0.61%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business association, at present, the cost end support of refrigerant R134a is weak, and the downstream demand is weak. On the whole, the market trading is not strong, and it is predicted that R134a market is still weak in the short term.

This week (10.21-10.25), the price of NBR was stable, and the price of NBR was 17666 yuan / ton, up or down 0%.

Price drop of raw material butadiene

Butadiene prices fell this week, weakening support for NBR. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of raw butadiene was 10457 yuan / ton on October 21, and 9914 yuan / ton on October 25, down 5.19% on the whole.

Petrochemical factory price offer firm

This week (10.21-10.25), the equipment of domestic nitrile manufacturers is in normal operation. According to the business agency, Lanzhou Petrochemical’s 65000 T / a unit is in normal operation. This week, the factory price of Lanhua NBR is stable. At present, n41e reports 17100 yuan / ton, 3305e reports 17300 yuan / ton, and 3308e reports 17300 yuan / ton. Ningbo shunze 65000 tons / year unit is in normal operation. At present, NBR 3355 reports 16800 yuan / ton, 28 reports 16600 yuan / ton, 3380 reports 17000 yuan / ton. Zhenjiangnan emperor’s NBR 50000 tons / year unit is in normal production, and the actual bill is negotiated. The manufacturer plans to repair the equipment from October 26 to November 5. The market supply is relatively small and the price is slightly higher.

Downstream inquiry on demand

The demand of the downstream plant of NBR is weak, and the demand inquiry for NBR is more on demand. The overall NBR market is relatively weak and stable, and the supply of some brands of NBR is not much, and the price is firm.

Outlook for the future

According to Xu Xiaokun, an analyst of the business agency, the price of raw materials has declined and the downstream inquiry on demand has slightly weakened the NBR as a whole. It is expected that the price of NBR will be weak in the later period.