Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the average price of maleic anhydride offered by the end of the week was 6633.33 yuan/ton (including tax), which was 4.38% lower than that of 6937.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

On August 9, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 62.49, which was the same as yesterday. It was 49.47% lower than the cyclical peak of 123.67 points (2017-12-26), and 11.25% higher than the lowest point of 56.17 on February 16, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: Maleic anhydride market continued to fall this week. This week, most of the major domestic maleic anhydride plants are operating normally, and domestic supply of maleic anhydride is sufficient. Downstream enterprises and traders have low inquiry intentions, mainly to maintain on-demand procurement, and market transactions are general.

Industry Chain: International crude oil fell sharply this week, which has depressed the energy market. The downstream resin factories have low start-up rate and weak market because of environmental protection, high temperature and weak terminal demand. The demand for maleic anhydride is general. Benzene law is still losing money. According to the monitoring of business associations, the impact of low prices from hydrogenated benzene made the pure benzene in East China begin to fall in the second half of the week. Sinopec’s pure benzene enterprises continued to lower the price of pure benzene, and Sinopec continued to bid at a high price of 5350 yuan/ton. The price of n-butane is stable, the market is abundant, and the downstream is still in the off-season.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 31 st week of 2019 (8.5-8.9), there were 16 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 2 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrogen peroxide (12.69%), acetic anhydride (10.50%) and butadiene (4.20%). There are 36 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are yellow phosphorus (-22.73%), sulfur (-5.81%) and propylene (-4.45%). Average gains and losses this week were -0.41%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Maleic Anhydride Products of Business Society Chemical Branch believe that at present, the gap between supply and demand of short-term maleic anhydride still exists, and the pressure of loss in benzene process is high. At present, the downstream resin start-up has not improved significantly, and the short-term adjustment of maleic anhydride market is the main one.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price trend of domestic TDI market was stable this week. The average market price in eastern China was about 14066.67 yuan/ton in the week, down 100 yuan/ton from last weekend, or 0.71%.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the TDI market in eastern China is tidying up and running. The price trend is temporarily stable. The atmosphere in the venue is light. Actual orders follow up is rare. The vendors’offer is stable and delivery is mainly negotiated. As of the 9th, the quotation of domestic goods with tickets in East China refers to 13700-13800 yuan/ton, and Shanghai goods with tickets refers to 13800-14000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price trend of nitric acid in upstream is slightly declining. At the beginning of the week, the market price is about 1716.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the market price is about 1693.33 yuan/ton, with a drop of 1.36%. The mainstream quotation of nitric acid in Jiangsu is 1680 yuan/ton, and the quotation is declining. The demand of nitric acid market is still acceptable. The quotation of the manufacturer is basically stable, and the quotation of individual manufacturer is somewhat loose. The nitric acid shipment situation is general. This week, toluene market prices rose slightly. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5400 yuan per ton. According to the feedback from traders, the turnover this week was not satisfactory. Compared with last week, the port inventory increased by 5,000 tons, reaching about 45,000 tons.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the data analyst of business associations, the domestic TDI market has been sorted out, the overall atmosphere in the market is low, the transaction follow-up is scarce, and some low-price offers have been heard, the market is stable and small. TDI market shocks are expected in the latter part of the consolidation.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic refrigerant R22 factory price continued to fall this week. On August 09, the average price quoted by mainstream manufacturers was 17266.67 yuan/ton, which was 1.89% lower than the average price of 17600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (5 days), and 6.67% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In early August, major air-conditioning manufacturers have carried out phased maintenance, the overall demand for refrigerants has declined. At present, refrigerant enterprises start smoothly, there is sufficient supply of goods on the site, the market atmosphere is cold, enterprises have certain pressure on shipment. The impact of falling prices of hydrofluoric acid and trichloromethane on the market raw materials has insufficient support on the cost side of refrigerants, resulting in negative results. The overall shipment of manufacturers is light, and local inventory is under pressure. The shipment rate of enterprises such as sub-packaging, trade and so on has slowed down and stocks are in hand, and the risk aversion mood still exists. According to the data monitoring of business associations, as of August 09, the price of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. was 17 800 yuan/ton, Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 16 000 yuan/ton, Shandong Yue’an New Materials Co., Ltd. was 18 000 yuan/ton, Zhejiang Lengwang Science and Technology Co., Ltd. was 17 000 yuan/ton, and Hunan Longxun Trade Co., Ltd. Our price is 15 500 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid of upstream products has been declining continuously. In the near future, the market situation of manufacturers has not improved significantly. Domestic spot supply is sufficient. Some manufacturers have lowered their ex-factory prices. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is 10500-11500 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11000-11500 yuan/ton. 。 The upstream product domestic trichloromethane market overall spot supply is tight, affected by the low start of refrigerant market, the demand for trichloromethane is not good, the market negotiation enthusiasm is weak, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, basic on-demand procurement, coupled with the typhoon rainy weather, logistics and transportation in some areas are limited recently, and the arrival of goods is limited. Definitely difficult, the overall market is weak.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Refrigerant Analysts believe that the end of the current refrigerant R22 peak season, demand decline, the market supply exceeds demand situation continued to play, in general, future refrigerant R22 will continue to decline.

Price Trend

The domestic BDO market is running smoothly. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, as of August 6, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9360 yuan/ton, which was 19.41% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Early in the week, the market news was less, and the domestic BDO market was running steadily. Although the factory still has a positive price mentality and the middlemen actively follow up the high offer, but the downstream just need to replenish the warehouse, the intention of backup is not strong, and the main downstream market is weak, contract digestion is slow, high price conflict; spot market is also just in need of small single delivery, big single rarely heard. Restarting factories has gradually lifted the load, supply-side support has weakened, the mindset of operators is empty, temporary stability of the market. When the demand side is not well supported, the timely implementation of some inventory maintenance planning devices is the greatest driving force to promote market growth.

On the market side, the BDO market in East China is running steadily. The factory still has a positive price mentality, the main downstream demand is weak, cautious wait-and-see, and the spot market just needs small orders. At the same time, restart the factory to raise the load, and the operators operate smoothly. The BDO market in South China is mainly stable. The market is booming, the market start load has increased, the support of the supply side has weakened, and the downstream is still dominated by just-needed, provisional stability of the offer, waiting for clear information guidance.

Industry chain: raw materials, methanol: methanol market rise in Inner Mongolia this week, the mainstream guidance price increased by 50 yuan / ton to 1650-1700 yuan / ton, Shandong and other places after the sharp rise in prices, prices in Inner Mongolia have risen, the current mainstream manufacturers are not pricing. Prices of mainstream manufacturers in Guanzhong area are stable at about 1850 yuan/ton. The main reason for the tender price of manufacturers is that there are more maintenance devices in Guanzhong and less supply in the market. However, due to the sharp decline in futures, traders are more cautious and market mindset is empty. Calcium carbide: Domestic calcium carbide market continues to decline, production enterprises are under pressure to ship cargo, downstream unloading trucks are gradually increasing, the industry is cautious to wait and see, Ningxia region to reduce the price of calcium carbide factory to promote the speed of shipment, the current price of calcium carbide in Ningxia region is 2800-2850 yuan/ton, Wuhai region has a downward plan, is expected to reduce 50 yuan/ton tomorrow. At present, the ex-factory price is between 2800 and 2850 yuan per ton, while the price in the Ukrainian League region has been narrowly reduced, ranging from 3050 to 3100 yuan per ton. The purchasing price of rolling stock in Henan is lowered to control the quantity of goods arrived. At present, the purchasing price in Henan is 3200-3250 yuan/ton. The rest of the procurement areas are mainly on the lookout.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the overoffer of factories is firm, and the market continues to be strong. The supply and demand side has little change, the start of construction is low, the demand side is still about the main length, just need a small single replenishment. BDO analysts of business associations expect that the domestic BDO market will reorganize and operate, and the on-site focus will be mostly on device dynamics.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, DOP prices rose first and then fell in July, and the DOP market shocked and adjusted. As of July 31, the price of DOP in East China was 7100.00 yuan/ton, down 133.33 yuan/ton from 7233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, or 1.84%, or 20.60% from the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product Analysis

In July, DOP external quotation shocks adjustment, overall for plasticizer DOP external quotation shocks rise, DOP market has a certain advantage. DOP price in China is 905 US dollars/ton at the beginning of the month, 915 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, up 10 US dollars/ton, DOP price in Southeast Asia is stable; DOP equipment start-up rate of plasticizer enterprises is maintained, demand is normal, price fluctuation of raw materials is rising, overall plasticizer DOP market is good, DOP price in the future has a certain upward momentum.

Analysis of Industrial Chain

For raw materials, octanol and phthalic anhydride prices of DOP raw materials rose first and then fell in July, the same trend as that of DOP. The price of phthalic anhydride began to rise at the end of the month, octanol also stopped falling, DOP raw materials may increase in the future, raw materials prices rise to drive the DOP market up, and from the perspective of raw materials prices, the decline of phthalic anhydride and octanol are less than the decline of DOP, DOP market does not have downward pressure, DOP market momentum for future increases. It is expected that the market will rise after DOP.

On the downstream demand side, the price fluctuation of PVC remained stable in July, while the demand for PVC remained stable. Overall, the DOP market in the future is limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at business associations, believes that raw material prices are on the rise, DOP costs will rise in the future, and DOP momentum will increase in the future. In August, the execution price of Sinopec o-phthalic acid increased, the market was good for phthalic anhydride and plasticizer, and the momentum of DOP price increase in the future market. In terms of demand, the overall market of plastics industry remained stable, while the market for plasticizer was limited. On the external market, DOP price shocks remain stable and have limited positive effects on DOP. The overall DOP market is better than negative. There is a certain momentum for future market to rise, but there is little room for increase. It is expected that DOP prices will rise slightly in the future.

Price Trend

The domestic toluene market was generally stable this week, with prices rising slightly due to the rise in crude oil, with a weekly increase of about 0.23%.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: The trend of toluene market is steady this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5500 yuan/ton. According to the feedback from traders, this week’s trading is normal, compared with last week’s, the port stock is maintained at about 40,000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, crude oil, affected by Trump’s tariff comments, this week’s oil prices rose and fell unevenly, spot Brent rose 0.43%, Brent futures rose 0.52%, WTI futures fell 4.12%, Dubai futures rose 0.32%.

On the downstream side, in the PX market, the overhaul unit was restarted and new units were put into production to support the demand for isomeric xylene. In the PTA market, the possibility of PTA weakening in the short term is greater due to the restart of equipment maintenance and the increase of supply pressure.

3. Future Market Forecast

Xylene analysts from Business, Social and Chemical Branch believe that next week we will continue to focus on the trend of the situation in the Middle East, the United States and Iraq, the follow-up game of Sino-US trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand in the global economic outlook after a new round of interest rate cuts by the global central bank. Overall, the toluene market is expected to adjust next week.

Price Trend

In July 2019, the domestic 1_tin ingot Market as a whole declined, with the average price of the domestic market at the beginning of the month at 142712.50 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week at 13517.50 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.31%.

On July 31, the tin commodity index was 68.84, down 0.19 points from yesterday, down 31.33% from the cyclical peak of 100.25 points (2011-09-05), and up 60.62% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 09, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: The spot tin market continued to fall under the influence of futures in early July. After Shanghai and Tin fell to the drop stop on July 2, the night market fell again near the drop stop, hitting a new low since October 2016, touching 127780 yuan/ton at one time, falling 14840 points in two days, with a decline of 10.2%. Lunsey was the lowest at $17585, down 6.43% on the day. The spot market fell by about 4%. With the stable fluctuation of the futures market, the overall fundamentals of the spot market did not have much impact. It was still in the situation of weak supply and demand. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream spot tin price was about 134000-136000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 135000 yuan/ton. The spot lifting interval remained stable, with a set of Yunxi lifting water of 1000-1500 yuan/ton, an ordinary Yunzi lifting water of 500-1200 yuan/ton and a small brand lifting water of 400-800 yuan/ton.

Import and Export: On July 5, Indonesia’s Ministry of Trade said that its export of refined tin increased 36% to 7,620.9 tons in June from a year earlier, 13% from 6,759.26 tons last month. Indonesia exported 5,608.82 tons of refined tin in the same period last year. Indonesia is currently the world’s largest exporter of refined tin.

Data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on July 17 show that the global tin supply gap in January-May 2019 is 0.4 million tons. The total reported inventory was 0.69 million tons higher than at the end of 2018, but that included 0.6 million tons. Indonesia’s unexplained increase in stockpiles resulted in a decline of 33,300 tons in global refined tin production from January to May 2018. Asia’s output fell by 44,000 tons year-on-year. China’s apparent demand fell 1.7% year on year. Global tin demand in January-May 2019 was 157,700 tons, down 0.3% from the same period last year. Japan’s consumption was 11.4 million tons, down 3.6% from the same period last year. In May 2019, the output of refined tin was 31,000 tons and the consumption was 30,300 tons.

Data released by the Beijing Branch of the International Tin Association (ITA) show that China’s refined tin production in the first half of 2019 decreased by about 10% from a year earlier to about 75,000 tons. ITA’s survey of 15 refineries in China showed that the output of tin refining in June was about 12,500 tons, a 9% decrease in ring-to-ring ratio and the same ratio. China is the leading tin producer. Cui Lin, ITA’s chief representative for China, said that the decline in tin refining production was due to the reduced supply of tin concentrates in Myanmar and weak demand in China. Tin futures prices in Shanghai have fallen by nearly 8% since the beginning of the year, to about 134,000 yuan per ton. Cui said prices below $140,000 would affect production because of the high cost of ore supply in Myanmar.

Domestic events:

An executive of PT Timah, Indonesia’s largest tin miner, said on Thursday July 25 that the company expects to more than double its tin refining output this year, but the company has begun to take steps to reduce production. Timah’s refined tin production is expected to reach about 70,000 tons this year, according to Alwin Albar, Timah’s operations director. Last year, the government amended the rules to allow the company to obtain production from illegal miners within its concession. “We are actually trying to brake when the tin market is depressed,” Albar said in an interview. Timah produced 33,444 tons of refined tin in 2018, according to company data.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Due to the low replenishment of downstream enterprises in the early stage, the recent turnover is less, the downstream purchasing intention is weakened, and the global trade frictions continue under the general environment, the demand has not improved. It is expected that the future market will be dominated by low consolidation.

Price Trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of July 1 was 14933.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month was 2200 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month by 47.32%. The average price of phosphoric acid was 4516.67 yuan/ton on July 1 and 5733.33 yuan/ton on July 30. The price rose sharply, with a range of 26.94%.

II. Market Analysis

Since the first half of the year, the whole phosphorus chemical industry has been in a tepid state, which is similar to previous years. The price of yellow phosphorus fluctuates around 15,000-16,000 yuan/ton. On July 3, CCTV Focus Interview focused on the pollution of yellow phosphorus plants in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, triggering an environmental storm in the yellow phosphorus industry. In a short week, market prices jumped up continuously, rising by more than 10,000 yuan. The highest quotation is 26000 yuan/ton. The cost of yellow phosphorus promotes the whole forest industry chain, promotes the phosphoric acid market price to the highest level, and generally follows the upstream phosphate.

Logically speaking, the price rise is a good performance of the market, but this price surge stimulated by external factors is difficult to maintain for too long. By the end of July, the price of yellow phosphorus fluctuates greatly again. The pressure of production and marketing of phosphoric acid enterprises is great. Some enterprises in southwest, South and East China are shutting down one after another, and the supply continues to decrease. Downstream now generally adopts a wait-and-see attitude, leading to the stagnation of the entire market transactions, yellow phosphorus prices began to return rationally.

yellow phosphorus

According to commodity data monitoring, yellow phosphorus prices rose in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 14933.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 22,000 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month by 47.32%.

Yellow phosphorus: From the perspective of normal start-up enterprises, yellow phosphorus prices began to return rationally. As of 30 days, the quotation of yellow phosphorus manufacturers in Yunnan is about 21,000 yuan/ton. Yellow phosphorus producers in Sichuan region quoted about 1,000 yuan per ton. The price quoted by Guizhou yellow phosphorus manufacturer is about 23000 yuan/ton. At present, yellow phosphorus downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, procurement enthusiasm is poor, turnover is relatively small, TRADERS’mentality is unstable, and the market transaction space increases.

Phosphate ore

According to data monitoring of business associations, as of July 30, the trend of domestic phosphate ore market was slightly shocked. Quotations of a small number of enterprises in Guizhou were slightly lowered. Combined with the quotations of several sample areas, the average price of 30% grade phosphate ore was near 416.67 yuan/ton, which was 10 yuan/ton lower than that of July 1, falling by -2.34%.

Phosphate ore: Affected by environmental protection inspection factors, the production of yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid products has dropped sharply, and many yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid enterprises have stopped production and maintenance, which has also brought a small shock to the phosphorus ore market. The demand for phosphorus ore decreases, resulting in a slight decline in the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole. According to the monitoring of business associations, as of 30 days, 30% of the main grade phosphate ore factory in Guizhou province/car board tax quoted 350-450 yuan/ton, and 30% of the main grade phosphate ore factory tax quoted price in Hebei province maintained near 520 yuan/ton. This month, the overall operation of the phosphorus ore market device is normal.

phosphoric acid

The average price of phosphoric acid was 4516.67 yuan/ton on July 1 and 5733.33 yuan/ton on July 30, according to a large number of data lists of business associations. The price rose sharply, by 26.94%, up 30.65% compared with the same period last year.

Phosphoric acid: Phosphoric acid index increased, mainly due to environmental inspection factors, yellow phosphorus supply shortage led to rising market prices. At present, phosphoric acid enterprises start low, the spot supply is tight, the stock of raw materials is urgent, the supply of goods is difficult to find, the high offer of the holder, the wait-and-see atmosphere of phosphoric acid enterprises is strong, and the enthusiasm of purchasing high-price sources is reduced. As the price of yellow phosphorus continues to rise sharply, the cost of thermal phosphoric acid enterprises is under pressure, most enterprises do not offer for the time being, and some enterprises have downtime plans, the main pre-order issuance, the new order negotiation is cautious, a single discussion. As of 30 days, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid is about 5733.33 yuan/ton, Mingli Group of Guangxi offers 6300 yuan/ton, Xingfa Group of Hubei offers 6800 yuan/ton, Kanglong of Shifang of Sichuan offers 5400 yuan/ton, Anda Chemical of Sichuan offers 5000 yuan/ton, Qianrui Chemical quotes 5100 yuan/ton and Wengfuda Chemical quotes 5400 yuan/ton.

Monoammonium phosphate

According to the data of business associations, the domestic market price of monoammonium phosphate rose slightly this month. The average price of powder ammonium at the beginning of the month is 2183 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it is 2200 yuan/ton. The price has risen by 0.76%.

Monoammonium: The domestic market for powdered monoammonium is flat. Prices rose slightly at the beginning of the month, then remained stable until the end of the month. Anhui 55% ammonium powder factory quoted 2100 yuan – 2200 yuan / ton, smooth start. In Hubei province, 55% of ammonium powder is quoted at about 2050 yuan/ton, while 60% of ammonium powder is quoted at 2250-2350 yuan/ton, which maintains stable operation as a whole. Henan market maintained stable operation, 55% of ammonium powder factory quoted 2100 yuan / ton, and started smoothly. The price of 55% ammonium powder in Shandong province is 2100-2200 yuan/ton, which is stable. Sichuan province 55% ammonium powder factory quoted about 2050 yuan/ton. The overall starting rate of Monoammonium enterprises is about 50%. The price of Monoammonium is firm because of its predecessor orders. A small number of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises follow-up orders, most of them are cautious and wait-and-see attitude. The ammonium market may run steadily in the short run.

Diammonium phosphate

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic market price of diammonium phosphate fell this month. The average price of 64% diammonium granule was 2616 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 2500 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The price dropped by 4.46%.

DAP: The domestic diammonium market is weak. Prices fell at the beginning of the month and then remained stable until the end of the month. At present, 64% of diammonium in Hubei province is offered 2450-2550 yuan per ton, 64% of diammonium in Shandong is offered 2400-2500 yuan per ton, and 64% of diammonium in Yunnan and Guizhou is offered 2500 yuan per ton. The overall starting rate of diammonium enterprises is about 50%. Domestic diammonium exports have decreased significantly compared with last year. Diammonium from the demand point of view, is now the off-season of diammonium, the market is weak, the demand is small. The international market continues to be depressed and trading is flat. The price of raw materials was lowered, the demand was weak and the export was difficult, which led to the price reduction. It is expected that the price of diammonium will remain weak and stable in the later period.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that as far as market opportunities are concerned, the market has entered a new stage of game. At present, the price of phosphorus chemical industry has begun to return rationally. Adding up the volume of yellow phosphorus is not very ideal. The demand for yellow phosphorus is still in the face of adjustment, but overall supply side, there will be no sharp decline in the short term. Narrow amplitude shocks dominate.

Price fluctuations are normal. Short-term recommendations focus on downstream trends, device changes, and market turnover. However, the long-term trend is not easy to judge, after all, supply and demand are only a small part of the trend. As soon as the news surface changes, the trend is totally unexpected.