domestic TDI market this week the market continued to decline, the overall narrow shocks, market atmosphere is obvious, low inventory impact real single center down talks. Offer at the beginning of the week the average ex factory price of 43875 yuan / ton, the weekend average ex factory price of 41375 yuan / ton, down 5.7% weeks, nearly three months rose 181.05%.

Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic TDI market stalemate consolidation, prices continued to drag, market atmosphere highlights, traded the focus still falling phenomenon. Among them, the East China TDI market offer temporary stability. In holding the goods hands tight spot, the domestic supply of low-cost shipping intention is not high, sporadic offer with factory. Shanghai goods 40000-42000 yuan / ton 38000-40000 yuan / ton, domestic goods. North China; downstream plants and more cautious, just need to maintain the purchasing. Shanghai BASF announced the contract price, the dealers to follow factory offer guidance, but the downstream of high resistance, the market turnover Guadan, Shanghai goods about 40000-41000 yuan / ton, domestic goods about 38000-39000 yuan / ton.

The industrial chain, the upstream raw material: 1 toluene overall market a slight concussion, into late October, the east port inventory toluene relatively tight pattern, but with the cargo has returned to Hong Kong, especially toluene market supply tensions have been alleviated, the domestic market focus zoudie toluene; 2, downstream to the high price of conflict is obvious, some low-cost supply flooded the market. Holding the goods market outlook is expected to air, take the goods auction pocket for security, market news confusion, when there have been traded the focus continued to fall, some factories choose alternatives to maintain production, market transactions guadan.

Macro: international oil prices fell, the downstream costs support Market forecast
At present, the market traded slightly light, liquidity is relatively weak, the market has continued to weaken for the late phenol manufacturers expected prices will continue down 100-200 yuan / ton.

please review: since September 21st since the implementation of “transportation vehicle management regulations”, it is to strengthen the transportation vehicle highway management, highway facilities and protect people’s lives and property safety, according to “highway law” “Road Safety Protection Ordinance” and other laws and administrative regulations.

However, the ammonium chloride market, poor downstream demand and more enterprises mainly rely on the transport of goods shipping dual factors, the highway management regulations for the ammonium chloride market impact is not obvious.

Concerned about the market of ammonium chloride ammonium chloride has been all know, the domestic market sales were flat, multiple factors leading to the recovery of the active site, may become the foreseeable future.

Facing the surge in the volume of complaints, Bridgestone also raises questions about the attitude of the manufacturer. Third party defective auto product information collection platform vehicle quality network statistics, Bridgestone factory in the previous year, the vehicle quality network complaints consistently higher degree of attention: by December 31, 2015, manufacturers respond to complaints rate as high as 92.86%, not only the complaint reply is much better than other tire companies, even higher than most car prices. But in 2016 the volume of complaints surge, Bridgestone reply instantly fell to the bottom, the complaint recovery rate is only 6.55%.

Chinese quality network directly points out in its “consumer warning”, “vehicle quality monitoring data from the network point of view, Bridgestone always pay close attention to the relevant departments complaints of consumers, not to delay the recovery behind will make people guess businesses really encountered a bottleneck to solve the problem.”

The quality of the controversy

Since September, Brunei BMC with an annual output of 850 thousand tons, Indonesia parking device maintenance, parking device 10 months Malaysia an annual output of 1 million 700 thousand tons of temporary parking device, although the effect of exports to China methanol is limited, but more obvious influence on Japan and South Korea, among them 9 months late, the domestic part of the goods to export to Korea and Japan, about 1.2-1.5 million ton then, the Chinese methanol market formed a strong support.

Overall, it China imported methanol market, continuously reduce supply device in Middle East, America and Southeast Asia, which has led the market pattern of outer market, coupled with the recent devaluation of the RMB exchange rate, which leads to the rise of methanol potential WaiPan prices did not stop.

As of September 2016, according to customs data show that Trinidad and Tobago Chinese total imports of 511 thousand and 500 tons of goods, imports of goods in Venezuela 181 thousand and 800 tons, 227 thousand tons of imports of American goods. Since September, Trinidad and Tobago, an annual output of 1 million 900 thousand tons of equipment, overhaul of Venezuela’s SuperMetanol annual output of 725 thousand tons of plant park, which has caused the rise in the United States and Chinese methanol prices, including FD for Trinidad and Tobago Gulf region in the three quarter of methanol supply reduction effect, negotiate the price rise to 81 cents / gallon nearby. Compared to the beginning of the year rose as high as 100%.

Three, can not be ignored in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia methanol plant mostly concentrated in Malaysia, Brunei and Indonesia three, of which Malaysia goods exports to China is relatively large, the average 25-30 million ton. The annual export volume in Brunei and Indonesia 8-10 million tons near the two sets of devices in Japan and South Korea.

The reporter learned that, in the local oil company based on market conditions and user consultation in winter non residents with gas amount of base, plans November 20th non resident gas sales amount of base prices go up 10%-20%. NDRC price department official said, the non resident natural gas this winter peak gas prices will rise in the range of 20%. The upstream and downstream business enterprises need to fully negotiate prices.

The industry believes that the price increase of winter gas peak shaving gas under tension is market behavior.

In November 18, 2015, the NDRC issued “notice on reducing” non resident natural gas station prices and further promote the price reform, clearly put forward to non residents with gas from the highest gate price management to base station price management, supply and demand sides can benchmark the gate price based, negotiated specific gate prices in the range floating, floating is not limited within 20%. And the provisions temporarily floating, floating is not limited, since the 2016 month since November 20th, rising to a maximum of 20%. needs to be mentioned is the last non resident natural gas prices since the natural gas economy compared to alternative energy recovery, natural gas market growth significantly warmer this year. In addition, with the North China regional governance haze, boiler coal gas quickly start work, natural gas consumption growth in North China region compared to other regions is more prominent, regional differences in the supply of natural gas this winter is more obvious.

Analysis of chemical industry chain can be found, the crude oil is the most important chemical energy sources of raw materials, petrochemical industry production line, involving a wide range, many products in the domestic commodity futures market, crude oil futures and related chemicals, there are several PTA, PP, LLDPE, methanol, asphalt, rubber etc..

Some analysts believe that because crude oil is not directly prepared for chemical futures, often need to go through multiple links to refine PP, LLDPE, methanol and other chemical species, which indirectly limits the price of crude oil to lead chemicals prices; the layers of transmission, performance in chemicals prices is more obvious. Lag.

In addition, the effects of fluctuations in crude oil chemicals often disk trend in the short term, but in the long run, to play a decisive role on the price, is still the fundamental factors. According to historical experience, when the domestic chemicals futures appeared independent of the trend, crude oil prices are often in a state of shock, in turn, is the crude oil price shocks during the chemical price weakening lead.

A new era of chemical futures analyst Luo Zhen said that although the recent crude oil in a short-term pullback, but due to the previous informal session of the OPEC production, November will be the formal meeting is expected to reach OPEC, cut the details at the meeting. Therefore, the market expected crude oil prices will not be a big adjustment.

While their chemical fundamentals are good, the autumn season maintenance device centralized maintenance, the downstream replenishment behavior after eleven exacerbated the tight supply situation, the strong support of chemicals. In addition, chemicals go strong, also indicates that the futures market started moving round plate.

Oil shocks, chemicals rose

In trading on Friday, New York and London in recent months, crude oil futures prices fell 2% and 1.5% respectively. From the weekly view, the two are in decline around 4%, the highest since mid September its worst week. The opening on Monday, the domestic chemicals futures continue to “take cities and seize territory”, rising force. At the close, methanol, PVC, PP three futures main contract trading; PTA, natural rubber, asphalt and other varieties in the surrounding varieties under the drive of the red.

This is not the first time chemicals and crude oil futures trend apparent differentiation. Due to unique characteristics of the chemical industry chain, chemicals futures trend is relatively crude oil futures trend is indirect and obvious lag. It is not inconsistent with the two movements is not reasonable, especially in the crude oil into the volatile chemicals, often out of a wave of independent market.

daily last week, crude oil continuous callback, currently down to below $50. The downturn of the crude oil, the domestic chemical market was taylor.

Closed Monday, chemical futures, methanol, PVC and PP of three varieties of strong limit. At the close, methanol, PVC and PP respectively, the futures contract reported 2477 yuan / ton, 7380 yuan / ton, 8733 yuan / ton.

Analysts pointed out that the OPEC involved in the production of uncertainty, international oil prices closed last week at $50, a record six weeks to the biggest weekly decline, but still at a relatively high level, still can give the cost of supporting domestic chemicals.