According to the monitoring data of business society, as of December 23, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 8733 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 1, 2021 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 10533 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 17.09%.

In early December, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market fell sharply. On the first and second days of the month, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market generally operated stably, the atmosphere in the field was quiet, and the operators watched carefully. However, the downstream demand was always insufficient, and the transaction of new orders in the field was limited. In addition, the dimethyl carbonate units in some areas were put into operation, the supply in the field was expected to increase, and the downstream replenishment was cautious. From the third day, The domestic dimethyl carbonate market has been running downward all the way, the focus of on-site negotiation has been declining, few new orders have been heard, and the industry has a strong bearish mood. On July 7, 8 and 9, the domestic dimethyl carbonate price fell sharply. On September 9, the domestic dimethyl carbonate ex factory price fell to around 8500-9000 yuan / ton, with an average price of 8800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13.44% over the three days. Subsequently, the market of dimethyl carbonate operated weakly and stably, and the on-site price fluctuated little. Until the 15th, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market fell again, and the on-site demand was still cautious. Although the factory inventory pressure was controllable, the increase of on-site supply in the early stage still suppressed the trading atmosphere. The average ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate fell below 8500 yuan, with reference to 8466 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the month, The half month decline was 19.62%.

In late December, the downstream of dimethyl carbonate made up orders in a small range, and the trading atmosphere on the site improved slightly. In addition, affected by the delay of commencement of some factories, the supply side of dimethyl carbonate on the site was supported. From the 17th, some factories slightly increased the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate by 100-200 yuan / ton, and then the market continued to maintain weak consolidation and operation. On the 21st, Supported by the favorable supply side on the site, the unit operation in some areas was unstable, the inventory pressure on the site was small, and the supply of goods was tight, and the downstream demand was expected to pick up. Some factories raised the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate slightly again, by 100-300 yuan / ton. The overall market continued to operate steadily. As of the 23rd, the average price of dimethyl carbonate in China was 8733 yuan / ton, compared with that at the beginning of the month, The decline was more than 17%.

In terms of index, it can be seen from the k-column chart of dimethyl carbonate week that since November, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has fallen more or less, and the support has been insufficient. The decline continued to deepen in December. On December 22, the dimethyl carbonate commodity index was 154.12, the same as yesterday, It is 38.35% lower than the highest point of 250.00 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and 54.12% higher than the lowest point of 100.00 on June 6, 2021. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-06-01 to now)

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, the market price of propylene oxide has been stable recently. Recently, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, with little impact on the cost. On the 16th, the market is temporarily stable and wait-and-see, the factory shipment has improved, and the inventory is gradually digested, but the downstream follow-up is relatively general, and the market continues to be stable and wait-and-see. At the beginning of this week, the factory inventory pressure is temporarily small, the market atmosphere is flat, the downstream purchases on demand, the cautious wait-and-see mood is strong, and the price operates stably, On the 21st, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 12950-13100 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 23, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 12900.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 11.64% compared with the price on December 1 at the beginning of the month (the reference average price of propylene oxide was 14600 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, there is still insufficient effective support in other aspects of the venue. The business society’s Dimethyl Carbonate data division believes that in the short term, the overall market fluctuation of dimethyl carbonate is limited, and most of them focus on interval adjustment. Specifically, more attention should be paid to the specific changes at the supply and demand end.

In the past week, the domestic acetone market continued to be depressed. According to the monitoring data of business agency, taking the market offer in East China as an example, the market offer in East China was 5275 yuan / ton on December 15 and 5240 yuan / ton on December 22, which continued to run at a low level. In terms of the national market, as of the 22nd, the bottom rebound in East China was 50 yuan / ton, the negotiation was 5180-5200 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas was 5200 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China was 5350 yuan / ton.

From the raw material side, the pure benzene market fell, and East China negotiated to 6500-6650 yuan / ton, with a small overall decline. The decline in Shandong was obvious, about 100 yuan / ton, and 6300-6400 yuan / ton. Overall, affected by the downward trend of downstream styrene, the transaction volume of local refining moved downward, and the volume of negotiation and trading in the market increased after the decline.

Propylene, another important raw material, operates stably with an offer of 7400 yuan / ton. Generally, there is little enthusiasm for downstream procurement in the market, but continuous procurement is recommended. The manufacturer said that the shipment is normal and there is no pressure, that is, the downstream operating rate is stable, the demand for propylene is stable, and its price is supported.

The downstream bisphenol a market is mainly organized and operated, and the overall negotiation is 16100-16300 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of goods in the market is limited, the holders have little intention to sell low, and the offer continues to be stable. In the downstream market, it is pushed up by the sharp rise of related products at the beginning of the week, but generally speaking, the terminal order receiving situation is not optimistic, and the bisphenol a market is advancing steadily in the short term.

From the perspective of the business agency, there are no major positive factors in the morning of the upstream, the raw material end is depressed, the downstream enterprises replenish goods completely on demand, and the trading atmosphere is general. The business agency expects the short-term acetone market range to be sorted and operated, and the reference price negotiated in East China is 5150-5200 yuan / ton.

DBP prices stopped falling and rose this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DBP stopped falling and rose this week, and the DBP market recovered. As of December 21, the price of DBP was 8983.33 yuan / ton, up 2.28% from 8783.33 yuan / ton on December 13; This week, DBP stopped falling and rose, and the DBP market recovered.

Positive butanol surged this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of n-butanol stopped rising this week. On December 21, the price of n-butanol was 7900 yuan / ton, up 5.33% from 7500 yuan / ton on December 13. The price of n-butanol increased, the price of raw materials increased, the cost support increased, the downward pressure on DBP weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

Phthalic anhydride prices hit bottom and rebounded

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded this week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, and the phthalic anhydride market recovered. The phthalic anhydride market recovered, the cost of DBP rose, the downward pressure of DBP weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

PVC fell slightly this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, PVC prices fell slightly this week. PVC market continues to be in a weak consolidation pattern. PVC disk is weak and the spot market is cold. The insufficient demand for plasticizer weakened the positive and negative effects on DBP market.

Future expectations

According to DBP data analysts of business agency, the price of phthalic anhydride, the raw material of DBP, rebounded this week, the price of n-butanol stopped falling and rose, and the cost of DBP rose; In terms of demand, in the traditional off-season of plasticizer, the PVC market fell, and the demand for plasticizer was general. Generally speaking, the demand for DBP is cold, the cost rises, the rising power of DBP increases, and the downward pressure remains. It is expected that the price of DBP will rise in the future.

According to the monitoring data, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on December 20 was 128.92, an increase of 1.22 points compared with yesterday, a decrease of 9.62% compared with the highest point of 142.64 points in the cycle (2021-11-01), and an increase of 52.89% compared with the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of business society, the market of polyaluminum chloride continued to adjust slightly in the first and middle of December: the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride on the 1st was 2356.25 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 10th was about 2385 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.22%. The recent reduction of raw material costs and the requirements of environmental protection and dual control in many provinces have a certain impact on manufacturers’ production, thus affecting market supply and demand.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society showed that the domestic hydrochloric acid market price continued to fluctuate from December 1 to 20, like a “U” shape: 324 yuan / ton on the 1st and 326 yuan / ton on the 20th, an increase of 0.62%; During the period, the highest price was 326 yuan / ton on the 20th and the lowest price was 296 yuan / ton on the 17th-19th, with an amplitude of 10.14%. The market of upstream liquid chlorine has fallen recently, the cost support is general, the market of downstream polyaluminium chloride and ammonium chloride has declined slightly, and the willingness to purchase downstream has weakened. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas fluctuated all the way in the first and middle of December: the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on the 1st was 6773.33 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on the 20th was 4440 yuan / ton, a sharp drop of 34.45%, and the focus shifted down sharply. The LNG analyst of business society believes that at present, there is still no obvious improvement in demand, the market continues to be sluggish in the peak season, and there is a certain pressure on shipment in some regions or affected by public health events. It is expected that domestic LNG is still expected to decline in the short term.

As for the future market, the raw material support is insufficient, the downstream demand is general, and the current polyaluminium chloride market fluctuates slightly; Under the policy of environmental protection and regional dual control in winter, the manufacturer’s production is limited, the market generally predicts that the demand is sluggish and the transaction is general. At present, the price mainly fluctuates slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of December 17, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 18000 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton compared with 19000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 5.26% during the week and up 25.58% compared with the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of December 17, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 32333.33 yuan / ton, down 333 yuan / ton compared with 32666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 1.02% during the week and up 92.08% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The refrigerant R22 market continued to decline this week. The price of raw hydrofluoric acid was weakly stable to about 12000 and chloroform was about 35000. There was still support on the cost side, but it weakened, and the demand side continued to weaken. At the end of the year, the downstream stock mood was negative, the holders had insufficient intention to store goods, the market trading was light, the operators’ mentality was pessimistic, and the price was as low as about 15000. As of the weekend, the R22 market quotation was mostly in the range of 15500-17500 yuan / ton, about 17000-17500 yuan / ton in Shandong, about 15500-17000 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, about 16000-16500 yuan / ton in Hunan and about 17000-17500 yuan / ton in Guangzhou. Prices continued to decline everywhere.

The refrigerant R134a market continued to decline this week, falling below 30000 yuan. The market high-end price gradually decreased, and the trend is gone. Recently, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid has been weakly stable to about 12000, and there is still support on the cost side, but the demand expectation of the automobile market is not high, the enterprise shipment is not smooth, and the inventory is accumulated to a certain extent. The offer of the cargo holder is lowered, bearish on the future market, and Dongyue closed the offer within the week. As of the weekend, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 29000-36000 yuan / ton, and the quotation in Zhejiang is about 29000-32000 yuan / ton, The quotation in Hunan is about 31000-32000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu is about 36000 yuan / ton, and that in Guangzhou is about 30000 yuan / ton. Prices in various places continue to fall.

In terms of raw materials, on December 17, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was temporarily stable, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the supply of goods was normal, the market price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid declined, and the recent rise of fluorite price had a certain supporting impact on the hydrofluoric acid Market, but the operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry was still at a low level, and the actual demand was at a low level, With regard to the Limited procurement of hydrofluoric acid and the recent decline of refrigerant market, it is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may remain low.

Business community refrigerant analysts believe that the current demand boost is insufficient, the intention to prepare goods at the end of the year is not strong, the enterprise shipment is not smooth, the price is under pressure, and the operators are mostly bearish about the future market. R22 and R134a are expected to continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market was weak and stable in the first half of December, and the spot price was sideways. As of December 16, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particle sample was 4133.33 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Recently, the domestic potash fertilizer market is stable and weak, and the market momentum is insufficient. The operating rate of processing potassium sulfate enterprises continued to be low, and the domestic operating rate was below 50%. The spot supply of potassium sulfate remained slightly tight, and the status of supply formed a certain support for the spot price, but the on-site demand follow-up lagged behind. Merchants reflected that the shipping resistance increased and the offer was weak and stable. Smooth operation of upstream potassium chloride. At present, the ex factory reference price of 52% potassium sulfate powder of Shijiazhuang hehe Chemical Co., Ltd. is reported as 4300 yuan / ton. The factory reference price of Shijiazhuang Haofang 50% potassium sulfate powder is quoted as 4200 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analyst of business agency believes that the domestic potassium sulfate Market was weak and stable in the first half of December, and the potassium chloride market was sideways. At present, the cost side of domestic potassium sulfate supports the horizontal market, the shipment at the supply side is insufficient, and the follow-up at the demand side is also insufficient. The supply and demand in the field are weak. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price may remain stable and weak in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of business society, since December, the price of hydrogen peroxide has continued to decline, and the price has fallen for nearly half a month, with a decline of nearly 10%. On December 1, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 960 yuan / ton. On December 15, the average price of hydrogen peroxide market was 836 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 12.85%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide of business society from September 20, 2021 to December 12, 2021, it can be seen that since September, the hydrogen peroxide market has warmed up and opened the road of rise, with an increase of 3.94% in the current month. After 11, hydrogen peroxide ushered in a sharp rise, rising continuously until October 19. Long and short game, the hydrogen peroxide market rose sharply and fell sharply after that. Throughout October, hydrogen peroxide rose 39.01%. At the beginning of November, hydrogen peroxide still maintained a downward trend, and the price fell for three consecutive weeks. In the whole November, hydrogen peroxide fell 13.55%. Hydrogen peroxide still fell in December. As of December 14, the overall decline was more than 12%.

Bad leading hydrogen peroxide fell endlessly

Since December, the terminal demand has been poor, and the hydrogen peroxide market continues to decline weakly. It has been falling for nearly half a month, falling to nearly 10% on the 15th. At the beginning of this month, Shanying, nine dragons and other paper mills announced the price increase of base paper, and the price of paperboard in many places increased by 3% – 5%. However, due to weak market demand and sufficient inventory of paper mills, the price of corrugated paper quickly weakened. The demand for hydrogen peroxide purchased by terminal paper, printing and other industries is general. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have loose supply, lack of confidence in price support, and the market continues to weaken.

On December 15, the price of hydrogen peroxide in some regions was as follows:

The quotation of hydrogen peroxide of Luxi Chemical is 730 yuan / ton, which is 150 yuan / ton lower than that in early December; Hebei Zhengyuan hydrogen peroxide quoted 830 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton from the beginning of December; The quotation of hydrogen peroxide of Anhui Quansheng chemical is 980 yuan / ton, which is 50 yuan / ton lower than that in early December.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business society, believes that the demand of terminal paper industry and printing industry is still general in the short term, and the future market of hydrogen peroxide will still be dominated by weak consolidation.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur (granular sulfur) in East China decreased this week. On December 10, the quotation of sulfur was 1933.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the price of 2000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, it decreased by 3.33% during the week and 8.08% month on month.

The domestic sulfur market is weak and downward, the refinery prices in various regions are reduced simultaneously during the week, the downstream demand is weak, the enterprise shipments are general, and the on-site mentality is stalemate. The refinery prices in various regions are adjusted according to their own shipments during the week, the liquid sulfur in East China is reduced by 80-100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 1930-1990 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in North China will be reduced by 40-60 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price will be 1610-1810 yuan / ton; Liquid sulfur in Shandong will be reduced by 50-70 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price will be 1780-1830 yuan / ton. As of December 10, the regional prices of sulfur (particles) in China are as follows:

region varieties December 4th December 10th Rise and fall

East China Sulfur (particle) 1940-2020 yuan / ton 1890-1940 yuan / ton – 50/-80

North China Sulfur (particle) 1750-1910 yuan / ton 1690-1870 yuan / ton – 60/-40

Shandong region Sulfur (particle) 1990 yuan / ton 1930 yuan / ton – sixty

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market is weak, the progress of fertilizer storage in winter is slow, the domestic market demand is weak, the transaction of new orders in the field is general, and the overall market is weak. On Monday, the ammonium market continued to be weak, the price fell by 0.52% during the week, the downstream demand was weak, the manufacturer’s order transaction was not smooth, and the transaction focus continued to move downward. The market price of diammonium was stable in the week, the market was in the off-season, the terminal demand was poor, the enterprises sold according to the order, and the market was mainly on the sidelines. In terms of supply and demand performance, ammonium phosphate Market is waiting and finishing operation.

According to the sulfur analyst of business society, the domestic refinery has sufficient inventory, weak downstream demand, weak phosphate fertilizer market and insufficient support for sulfur by terminal consumption. It is expected that the sulfur market will be sorted out in the future and pay attention to the market follow-up.

1、 Price data

As of December 12, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7568.25 yuan / ton, down 1.27% from 7665.75 yuan / ton on December 6. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-7800 yuan / ton.

As of December 12, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7152.50 yuan / ton, up 0.35% from 7127.50 yuan / ton on December 6. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7100-7300 yuan / ton.

On December 13, the naphtha commodity index was 92.60, down 0.81 points from yesterday, down 10.39% from the highest point 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 119.22% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined hydrogenated naphtha fell slightly, the price of straight run naphtha increased first and then decreased, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the terminal was weak, and the transaction was general.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rebounded this week. At the beginning of this week, South Africa reported that the symptoms of local Omicron infection cases were mild. After that, the market was worried about undermining oil demand, and oil prices ushered in a retaliatory rebound. In addition, the Iranian nuclear negotiations are at an impasse, the possibility of Iranian oil returning to the market is reduced, and crude oil is also supported to a certain extent. Second, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell slightly last week, which benefited the oil market. OPEC +, an oil producing country, also acts as a ballast. OPEC + decided to continue to release 400000 barrels / day of production capacity as planned at the ministerial meeting on December 2, reflecting the confidence of the alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia in the future demand prospects. In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) control production, it is unlikely that Iranian oil will return to the international market in the near future, the oil market remains in a tight balance, and the oil price is supported.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene fell first and then rose this week. The price was 5810.00 yuan / ton on December 3 and 5800.20 yuan / ton on December 10, down 0.17% from last week. Mixed xylene fell first and then rose this week, slightly higher than last week. The price was 5740.00 yuan / ton on December 3 and 5840.00 yuan / ton on December 10, up 0.17% compared with last week. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 12th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 49th week of 2021 (12.6-12.10), there are 2 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 2 commodities were WTI crude oil (7.06%) and Brent crude oil (6.50%). There are 9 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 15.97%), dimethyl ether (- 6.32%) and methanol (- 4.39%). The average rise and fall this week was – 1.35%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the rise of international crude oil and the cost of naphtha market support, but at present, the demand for olefins and aromatics in the terminal is weak, the transaction is general, the downstream procurement is cautious and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that naphtha refining in the near future may be dominated by weak consolidation.

Plasticizer DOP prices fell slightly this week

According to the data monitoring of business society, DOP prices fell slightly this week, and the overall decline of DOP market slowed down this week. As of December 9, the DOP price was 10550 yuan / ton, down 2.76% from 10850 yuan / ton on December 3 last weekend; DOP market fell slightly, and the decline of DOP slowed down this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and adjusted this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol market continued its downward trend this week. During the week, the price of isooctanol factory rose and fell inconsistently. On Monday and Tuesday, downstream customers made up stocks on bargain hunting. In addition, the sharp rise in crude oil price boosted the customer’s mentality, and the price of isooctanol rose slightly; After that, the inventory pressure was released, but the buyer carefully purchased the high-end price in the market, the trading volume of new orders in the market decreased one after another, the negotiation of high price spot was deadlocked, the bearish mentality on the floor increased again, and the price of isooctanol fell again in the second half of the week. Downstream customers purchased generally, the transaction of isooctanol was cold, the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased, the upward momentum of DOP weakened, and the downward pressure was large.

Phthalic anhydride prices stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded this week, the price of phthalic anhydride was flat this week, and the phthalic anhydride market stopped falling and warmed up. The decline of phthalic anhydride market slowed down, the downward pressure of phthalic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure of DOP weakened.

PVC prices fell slightly this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the PVC market fell slightly this week, and the PVC price fluctuated and fell this week. PVC disk was weak, futures PVC prices fell, and the spot market was cold. The PVC market fell, weakening the positive and negative effects on the DOP market.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a DOP data analyst at business agency, believes that this week, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride stopped falling and rebounded, the price of isooctanol rose first and then fell, the cost of DOP fluctuated and fell, and the downward pressure of DOP weakened; The price of PVC fell, the demand for DOP was general, and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers was cold. In general, raw material prices hit the bottom, fluctuated and adjusted, DOP cost pressure weakened, downstream market continued to weaken, DOP demand was cold, DOP prices fluctuated and fell in the future, but the downward trend is expected to slow down.