The lead market (6.10-6.17) fluctuated in a wide range this week, with a “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 14960 yuan / ton last weekend and 15005 yuan / ton this weekend, up 0.3% a week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the concept of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 24th week of 2022 (6.13-6.17), there are four kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including one kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were metallic silicon (7.54%), lead (0.47%) and antimony (0.31%). A total of 11 commodities fell month on month, and the top three products were copper (-2.95%), nickel (-1.77%) and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.25%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.14%.

Lead futures market this week

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory

Shanghai lead, 15085 yuan / ton+ 150., 87830 tons

London lead, USD 2050 / T- 92., 38825 tons

In terms of futures, the “V” trend of Lun lead this week, with an overall shock range of $2065-2145 / ton. The dollar hit a new 20-year high during the week. The matrix of the non-ferrous market was under pressure, and the lead price was mainly downward in the first half of the week. Later, with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 75 basis points, the market sentiment improved, and Lun lead rebounded and quickly rose. Shanghai lead fell first and then rose as a whole, with a trend similar to that of Lun lead.

In the domestic market, the downstream battery is still in the seasonal off-season recently, the finished product inventory of enterprises is still high, and the demand for lead ingot procurement is weak. In terms of primary lead, there have been a lot of off-season maintenance by manufacturers recently, and the overall operating rate of the smelter is low due to the tight supply at the mine end. The overall performance is weak in both supply and demand. In the off-season, the lead ingot market demand is weak. The recent market fluctuations mainly follow the trend of futures. It is expected that the lead price will maintain a range fluctuation trend in the short term, focusing on the recovery of downstream demand.

This week, the zinc price fluctuated and fell

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fell violently this week, and the zinc market fell. As of June 20, the zinc price was 25386 yuan / ton, down 2.60% from the zinc price of 26064 yuan / ton on June 12 last weekend; The supply and demand of zinc city were both weak, and the price of zinc fell in shock.

Zinc market is weak in both supply and demand

Recently, the processing cost of zinc concentrate has decreased, the enthusiasm of zinc smelting production has decreased, and the supply of zinc in the city has decreased; Recently, the “Beixi” natural gas pipeline has been reduced in operation due to the need for turbine maintenance. In addition, the natural gas output of the free port in the United States has been suspended due to the explosion. The natural gas supply situation in Europe has tightened again, the cost has risen, the enthusiasm of zinc smelting enterprises to start work has decreased, the zinc supply is expected to decline, and the overall zinc supply has declined. Due to the decline in the price of the black plate, the production of galvanized sheet was increased due to the poor sales of enterprises, and the start-up of galvanized sheet enterprises fell month on month; The operating rate of zinc oxide fell slightly month on month due to poor terminal orders; The overall demand for zinc is still weak. The supply and demand of zinc city were both weak, and the price of zinc fell in shock.

Aftermarket forecast

Analysts from the business agency believe that the supply and demand of zinc market are both weak this week, and the support of zinc price rise is weakened; The interest rate hike of central banks intensified the concern of economic growth slowdown, the market risk aversion increased, and the zinc price fell along with the metal plate; Recently, the resumption of production and work in China has been gradually promoted, and the demand of zinc city is expected to recover, but the improvement of demand still takes time, and the short-term demand is still weak. In the future, both supply and demand in the zinc market are weak, and the zinc price is expected to maintain a low shock adjustment.

According to the data monitored by the business club, the average price of domestic rubber grade premium white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton as of June 17. This week, the overall white carbon black market was mainly stable, with balanced supply and demand. The negotiation atmosphere was general. Compared with the same period last week, there was no significant change in the price. The overall market was stable, with balanced supply and demand. At present, the market supply was normal, and just needed to purchase.

From June 13 to June 17, the market price of white carbon black was stable. Compared with the same period last week, there was no change in the price. The overall market supply and demand was balanced. The downstream just needed to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics was smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere was flat,

Upstream hydrochloric acid: the price of domestic hydrochloric acid fell slightly, and the average market price fell from 287.50 yuan / ton last weekend to 275.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 4.35%. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year increase was 19.57%. On June 16, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 72.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.52% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 302.50% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now.)..

Chemical industry index: on June 16, the chemical industry index was 1206 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 13.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 101.67% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the white carbon black analyst of business agency, the trend of rubber grade white carbon black is stable in the short term, the operating rate is stable, and the price range is about 6000-6500 yuan / ton. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

Overview of precious metal spot price trend

According to the data of the business agency, the average price of silver in the early trading on June 16 was 4692.33 yuan / kg, up 1.55% on a daily basis, up 1.08% from the average price of 4927.67 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (June 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 4770 yuan / kg, a decrease of 1.63%.

On June 16, the spot market price of gold was 395.24 yuan / g, up 0.23% on a daily basis, down 0.07% from the early average price of 395.54 yuan / g in the spot market at the beginning of the month (June 1); Compared with the spot market price at the beginning of the year (January 1), the average price in early trading was 372.37 yuan / kg, a decrease of 6.14%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence, the long-term trend is basically the same, and the amplitude is slightly different.

On the 16th, the price of precious metal silver increased significantly, mainly based on the recent good demand expectation of silver industry.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Policy Overview

1. domestic news

According to the data of the Central Bank of China, at the end of the first quarter of 2022, the total assets of China’s financial institutions were 396.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, of which the total assets of banking institutions were 357.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year; The total assets of securities institutions reached 12.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.8% year on year; The total assets of insurance institutions were 25.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year. The liabilities of financial institutions were 360.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, of which the liabilities of banking institutions were 327.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year; The liabilities of securities institutions amounted to 9.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%; The liabilities of insurance institutions were 22.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year.

The central bank today conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 10billion yuan, and the bid winning interest rate was 2.10%, unchanged from the previous period.

2. international news

The Central Bank of Brazil raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 13.25%, in line with market expectations.

The Swiss central bank raised the policy interest rate from -0.75% to -0.25%, which was the first interest rate adjustment in seven years, and the market expectation remained unchanged.

Aftermarket forecast

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced after the meeting that it would increase the target range of the policy interest rate federal funds rate from 0.75% to 1.00% to 1.50% to 1.75%. This is the largest single interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve since november1994 and the first 75 basis points increase by the Federal Reserve in more than 27 years.

The news of interest rate hike was bad for precious metal market, and the news in the early stage was basically digested. After the bad news was realized, the precious metal price began to warm up.

Logically, the market expects the U.S. economy to peak. However, due to the sharp rebound in crude oil prices, inflation expectations have risen again. Inflation expectations support precious metal prices to a certain extent. However, the interest rate increase policies of various countries still suppress the long-term trend of precious metal prices.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of isopropanol increased slightly this week. The average price of isopropanol in China was 7275 yuan / ton last Friday and 7362.5 yuan / ton this Friday. The price increased by 1.2% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison chart of acetone and isopropanol prices from March to May

The domestic isopropanol market increased slightly this week. At present, the orders of isopropanol manufacturers are still mainly for export. At present, domestic downstream demand for isopropanol is general. Up to now, most quotations of Shandong isopropanol are about 7200-7400 yuan / ton; The quotation range of Jiangsu isopropanol is about 7200-7450 yuan / ton; Most quotations of Zhejiang isopropanol are about 7300 yuan / ton. Internationally, on July 7, the U.S. isopropanol closed down, while the European isopropanol market closed down.

In terms of raw acetone, the price of isopropanol rose this week. The average price of acetone in China was 6140 yuan / ton last Friday and 6160 yuan / ton this Friday. The price was increased by 0.33% during the week. At present, the phenol ketone plant is still close to the profit and loss, and the enthusiasm for pushing up still exists. However, the operators in the field have a stable mentality, the offer remains firm, and they always pay attention to the trend of the plant. After the festival, it is the beginning of the month, and the downstream mainly digests contracts. The terminal has little enthusiasm for replenishment, and the trading volume may not be high. According to the prediction of the business club, the acetone market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range in the short term.

As for raw propylene, as of the end of this week, the mainstream quotation of propylene (Shandong) market was 7800-7900 yuan / ton, and the price fell below 8000 yuan. It is reported that. Due to the production of new units and the resumption of overhaul units, the supply of propylene has increased, the market competition has intensified, and the enterprise has been forced by the sales pressure to give up profits and goods, and some process routes are even in a state of loss. Downstream market demand is mainly just demand, fast in and fast out, and the overall market is in a situation of supply exceeding demand. Propylene analysts from the chemical branch of the business community believe that the cost of raw materials is high. At present, the supply of propylene market is loose and the demand side follows up slowly. It is expected that the propylene market will be weak and downward in the near future.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of the business club believes that: at present, domestic factories mainly export orders, and the domestic isopropanol market demand is general. The downstream just needs to receive orders, and the demand lacks support. It is expected that the adjustment space for isopropanol will be limited in the short term.

DOTP prices fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price fell sharply this week, and the overall DOTP market fell back. As of June 13, the price of DOTP was 12112.50 yuan / ton, down 1.22% from 12125 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month and 12262.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. This week, the pressure on raw materials was great, the cost of DOTP fell, and the DOTP market fell violently.

The price of isooctanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic isooctanol price fell violently this week, and the overall isooctanol market fell. As of June 13, the isooctanol price was 12166.67 yuan / ton, down 3.18% from 12566.67 yuan / ton on June 6 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell. The cost pressure of DOTP increased, and the downward pressure of DOTP increased.

PTA prices rose at a high level this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the PTA price fluctuated and rose this week, and the overall PTA market rose. As of June 13, the PTA price was 7720.83 yuan / ton, up 6.73% from the PTA price of 7234 yuan / ton on June 6 at the beginning of the week. Crude oil prices rose at a high level, PTA prices rose in shock this week, DOTP cost support increased, DOTP positive momentum increased, and downward pressure remained.

Aftermarket expectation

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, this week, crude oil prices rose at a high level, PTA prices rose in a volatile manner, isooctanol prices fell, DOTP costs fell, DOTP rising momentum weakened, and downward pressure increased. In the future, the cost of DOTP raw materials decreased, the upward momentum of DOTP weakened, and the downward pressure increased. It is expected that the price of DOTP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

This week, the zinc price fluctuated and fell

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fell violently this week, and the zinc market fell back. As of June 13, the zinc price was 25924 yuan / ton, down 0.95% from 26172 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with the zinc price of 26416 yuan / ton on June 6 at the beginning of the week, the price fell by 1.86%.

Reduction of zinc smelting cost

Recently, the processing fee of zinc smelting has decreased, the cost of zinc smelting has decreased, and the support of zinc price rise has weakened; The price of natural gas in Europe has dropped, the cost of zinc smelting in Europe has dropped, the profits of European refineries have been repaired, the operating rate of refineries may rise, the processing fee of imported zinc concentrate will decline at a high level, the supply at the outer ore end is relatively loose, and the tight supply situation of zinc ingots may be relieved. At the weekend, the natural gas port in the United States exploded, and the price of natural gas in Europe rose. In the future, the cost of zinc smelting in Europe rose, and the supply of zinc in the market may decline due to the impact, which increased the momentum of zinc price rise.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of the business agency, the supply of zinc in the market rose this week, the cost of zinc smelting fell, the support of zinc price rise weakened, and the shock of zinc price fell; However, the explosion of natural gas ports in the United States has caused a rise in zinc smelting costs, and the supply of zinc in the city may be affected. In the future, the zinc smelting cost is expected to rise, and the supply of zinc may decrease. It is expected that the zinc price will rise slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic neopentyl glycol market price rose slightly this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream domestic neopentyl glycol market rose from 16833.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 17500.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 3.96%. On June 10, the commodity index of neopentyl glycol was 84.34, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.60% from the highest point of 103.61 in the cycle (September 22, 2021), and up 31.25% from the lowest point of 64.26 on January 3, 2022. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The prices of the mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol were temporarily stable this week: the distribution price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17300 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the end of last week; Zibo de synthetic Feng neopentyl glycol sold at a price of 17200 yuan / ton over the weekend. Compared with the previous weekend, the quotation was temporarily stable. The delivery price of Chongqing Kaiyin Vanuatu neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 18000 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market this week fell from 15866.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 15366.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 3.15%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

In the middle of June, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may fluctuate slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was weak. The neopentyl glycol analyst of the business agency believes that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may suffer a small shock and decline under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the domestic market of PA6 rose in early June, and the spot prices of various brands rose. As of June 9, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for Zhongtong viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 16666.67 yuan / ton, up or down by +1.63% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam rose steadily this week. Far point crude oil rose due to the tension in Eastern Europe and the contraction of other oil producing countries, and pure benzene and caprolactam continued to be supported. Downstream procurement is based on demand and production is maintained. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to be strong in the short term.

The upstream caprolactam market trend is positive, and PA6 cost side support is stable this week. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is generally stable at 70%. In terms of news, the tension between Russia and Ukraine is still tense, and the strong operation of international crude oil prices has a fair supporting and conducting effect on the cost side of PA6. The supply side of PA6 is relatively abundant, but the profit of the manufacturer is under pressure. The load of downstream enterprises fell in a narrow range, and the demand slowed down. The purchaser is cautious in taking the goods, mainly in small order purchase to maintain production, and the delivery is not good.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the analysts of business agency, the spot price of PA6 rose in early June, the trend of caprolactam rose steadily, and the cost support of PA6 was stable. Downstream enterprises mainly take small orders to maintain production. There is resistance to high price goods in the market, and the trading volume shrinks. It is expected that the trend of PA6 market may fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

Zinc price fell on June 8

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price rose on June 8, and the zinc market recovered. On June 8, the zinc price was 26296 yuan / ton, up 0.75% from 26100 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; On June 8, the zinc price rose and warmed up; Compared with 2021, the zinc price increased by 14.98% year-on-year.

Key points of analysis

Compared with the first quarter, the European energy crisis has eased, the cost of zinc smelting has decreased, the extreme market of zinc has eased, and the historical high of zinc price is difficult to break; Downstream enterprises have resumed production and work, enterprises in the zinc industry chain have started to increase, and the supply and demand of zinc city has slowly warmed up, but the supply and demand of zinc city has not yet recovered to the expected level, and the downward pressure of zinc city still has great upward momentum.

Aftermarket forecast

The high cost of zinc smelting is alleviated, the supply and demand recovery is less than expected, and the zinc price is difficult to reach a new high. The momentum for the rise of zinc market still exists. It is expected that the high zinc price will be adjusted in the future.