Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has increased. As of the 21st, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3118.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.04% compared to the 14th price of 3056.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 12.64%.

Supply side: Difficulty in starting raw ore production, shortage of fluorite in stock

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is that upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be phased out, new mines will be added, and mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are undergoing safety hazard inspections. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises, As a result, it is difficult for fluorite flotation enterprises to improve their operations, and the spot supply of fluorite is tight, which has affected the price trend of the fluorite market.

On the demand side: The price of hydrofluoric acid is rising, and the refrigerant market is temporarily stable

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid has increased, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed by various regions in China has increased to 9400-9900 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices are still in shutdown, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers’ hydrofluoric acid is normal. Recently, the sulfuric acid market price has significantly increased, which has affected the hydrofluoric acid market. The rise in hydrofluoric acid price to some extent supports the rise of fluorite market.

The market for terminal downstream refrigerant products remains low, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has slightly decreased. In addition, the refrigerant market has experienced a long-term downward trend, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement needs to follow up, and the demand peak season is gradually turning weak. Currently, overseas export orders have not significantly improved, and the price of R22 has slightly decreased. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is temporarily stable. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality to sell low-priced orders. Currently, the demand for consumer orders has not significantly improved, and the market quotations for refrigerant R134a are mostly in the range of 24500 to 25500 yuan/ton. The market situation in the downstream refrigerant industry has not changed much, but the refrigerant operating rate remains low. For upstream on-demand procurement, it has to some extent limited the price increase in the fluorite market.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material in modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor industries, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market has risen.

Future Market Forecast: Recently, there has been an increase in imported fluorite mines from Mongolia, easing some of the tension in domestic fluorite mines. However, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, coupled with the rising trend of the hydrofluoric acid market, the industry maintains high expectations for pricing in September. The refrigerant quota plan has recently stimulated the market, and hydrofluoric acid companies hold an optimistic attitude towards the later stage. Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society, believes that the price of fluorite will still mainly rise in the later stage.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has slightly increased. As of the 18th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9566.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.88% compared to the 10th price of 9483.33 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.34%.

Supply side: Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly increased. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed in various regions in China is 9400-9800 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have been shut down for sale, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation for hydrofluoric acid from manufacturers is average, with anhydrous hydrofluoric acid starting at around 60%. Some enterprises have accumulated inventory, but the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid has increased recently due to strong support from raw materials such as fluorite and sulfuric acid.

Cost side: The price trend of domestic fluorite has increased. As of the 18th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3093.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% compared to the 10th price of 3056.25 yuan/ton. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises remains low, and upstream mining is still tense. Backward mines will continue to be phased out, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and fluorite mines are operating insufficiently, resulting in environmental protection The requirements of emergency management departments and others are becoming stricter, and the difficulty of starting mining has increased. Due to the tight supply of raw materials, the fluorite market is unlikely to improve in the short term. The focus of spot negotiations has strengthened, and downstream enterprises have followed up on demand. Cost support has led to a rise in the price of hydrofluoric acid in the market.

Recently, the sulfuric acid market has significantly increased. As of the 18th, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid was 252 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 41.57% compared to the price of 178 yuan/ton on the 10th. The upstream sulfur market of sulfuric acid has continued to rise recently, and cost support has increased. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and multiple positive factors jointly support the upward trend of sulfuric acid products. The significant rise in sulfuric acid prices has boosted the domestic hydrofluoric acid market.

On the demand side: The market for refrigerant products downstream of the terminal remains low, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has slightly decreased. In addition, the refrigerant market has experienced a long-term downward trend, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement needs to follow up, and the demand peak season is gradually turning weak. Currently, overseas export orders have not significantly improved, and the price of R22 has slightly decreased. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is temporarily stable. Some enterprises have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is no mentality of buying low-priced orders. Some merchants have temporarily stabilized the price trend, and the demand for consumer orders has not significantly improved. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 24500 to 25500 yuan/ton. Supply and cost factors have driven refrigerant enterprises to have a clear intention to increase prices, and refrigerant prices are stable. The market situation in the downstream refrigerant industry has not changed much, but the refrigerant operating rate remains low. For the hydrofluoric acid market, on-demand procurement is the main focus, which correspondingly suppresses the growth of the hydrofluoric acid market.

Future forecast: The market trend of upstream raw material fluorite is on the rise, fluorite enterprises have a strong intention to raise prices, and sulfuric acid prices are significantly higher; The downstream refrigerant industry is operating at a low level, with the main focus on on-demand procurement of hydrofluoric acid. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that in the short term, the hydrofluoric acid market is mainly affected by cost and the price trend is rising.

Since August, the domestic acetic acid market has shown a broad upward trend, with prices continuing to rise. The main reason is the tight domestic supply, which brings benefits to the supply, and the price of acetic acid continues to rise. At the beginning of the month, the Yankuang Lunan and Jiangsu Sopu plants unexpectedly malfunctioned and stopped short. Downstream follow-up was good, and the quotation of acetic acid manufacturers increased. Afterwards, Tianjin Soda Plant reduced its operating load and reduced its capacity utilization rate. At the same time, the factory had low inventory and mainly executed long-term contracts, resulting in a tight supply of goods in the market. Holders were hesitant to sell and rose significantly. In the later stage, as the bidding prices of the main factories in the northwest continued to rise, other regions also followed suit, As of now, the price of acetic acid has increased by over 500 yuan/ton within the month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, on August 16th, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3583.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.85% compared to the beginning price of 3066.67 yuan/ton.

The upstream raw material methanol market is weak and volatile. As of August 16th, the average price in the domestic market was 2331.67 yuan/ton, which is a 1.03% decrease compared to the price of 2355.83 yuan/ton on August 1st. Cost side coal prices have fallen, weakening support; Downstream, since August, the shutdown of acetic acid plants has affected the decline in operating rates, resulting in insufficient demand and weak supply and demand. Methanol prices have fluctuated and fallen.

The downstream acetic anhydride market continues to rise. As of August 16th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5400.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.37% compared to the price of 5125.00 yuan/ton on August 1st. The upstream acetic acid price has increased significantly, and the upward momentum of acetic anhydride has increased. The downstream demand for acetic anhydride is average, which to some extent limits the increase in acetic anhydride. Due to strong cost support, the price of acetic anhydride has increased.

In the future market forecast, acetic acid analysts from the Business Society believe that the domestic supply is currently tight, factory inventory is limited, and there is a strong intention of reluctant sales in the trade market. Coupled with the guidance of rising bidding prices in the northwest, and supported by positive supplier performance, it is expected that the acetic acid market may continue to rise in the future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market price has risen during the cycle. On August 14th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 10133 yuan/ton, mainly due to the high price of raw material coal tar market, which provides good support for the cost of carbon black.

Cost side: In terms of raw materials, as of August 14th, the market price of coal tar is 4955 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the supply of coal tar is tight, and the downstream construction starts at a stable high level. Most deep processed products and raw coal tar present a parallel situation, and they are actively receiving raw materials. The high performance of the raw material market continues to rise, providing strong support for the cost side of carbon black. It is expected that the high price of coal tar market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall operation of the domestic carbon black market is stable, with sufficient supply in the carbon black market.

In terms of terminals, downstream enterprises have a decent level of operation, but they have a strong resistance to the constantly increasing supply of carbon black. Moreover, downstream tire enterprises have already ordered a batch of raw materials at the beginning of the month, and recent price policies have remained unchanged. Factory procurement activity has decreased compared to the previous period, and terminal demand is in a weak and difficult to improve stage. The supply and demand game on the market is expected to see stable operation of the carbon black market in the short term.

Overall, carbon black has good cost support, low inventory levels, and no significant improvement in demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and it is expected that the carbon black market will operate at a high level in the short term.

The price of ortho xylene has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the price of ortho xylene was 9000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.65% compared to the 8600 yuan/ton price of ortho xylene on August 4th last weekend. The price of mixed xylene has increased, while the cost of ortho xylene has increased; The downstream market for phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, with stable demand for ortho xylene and cost support. This week, the price of ortho xylene increased.

The market for raw material mixed xylene rose this week

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of August 14th, the price of mixed xylene was 8630 yuan/ton, an increase of 410 yuan/ton or 4.99% compared to the price of 8220 yuan/ton on August 4th last weekend. Crude oil prices fluctuate and rise, while naphtha and mixed xylene prices rise, and raw material costs rise, supporting the rise of adjacent xylene market.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market stabilizes after rising

According to the market analysis system of phthalic anhydride products in the business society, as of August 14th, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8750 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.34% compared to the price of 8550 yuan/ton on August 4th. The market for phthalic anhydride is stagnant, and the price of phthalic anhydride tends to stabilize after rising. The decline in the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is bearish for phthalic anhydride, and plasticizer enterprises are operating at a low level. The demand for phthalic anhydride is weak and tends to stabilize, and the demand for phthalic anhydride is weak, increasing the downward pressure on phthalic xylene.

Future prospects

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the increase in crude oil will lead to an increase in the cost of raw materials for ortho xylene; However, downstream plasticizers are operating at a low level, with weak demand for phthalic anhydride and weak demand for ortho benzene. Affected by the increase in raw material costs in July, the cost supported prices of ortho benzene continued to rise. However, after entering August, the ortho benzene market remained stagnant, with insufficient cost support momentum. The market returned to demand dominance, while the downstream market remained stagnant, increasing the downward pressure on ortho benzene. In the future, there is insufficient support for the rising cost of ortho benzene, and downstream demand for ortho benzene is stagnant. It is expected that ortho benzene prices will stabilize in the future.

High consolidation of plasticizer DBP prices this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 11th, the DBP price was 9812.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.38% compared to the price of 9775 yuan/ton on August 4th. The price of DBP raw material butanol has fluctuated and decreased, while the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and increased. The cost of plasticizer DBP has not increased enough, and the operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is 40%. The supply of plasticizers has contracted, and the profits of plasticizer enterprises are at a loss. The plasticizer manufacturers are operating under low load, and many plasticizer enterprises have equipment shutdowns. Downstream demand is cold, and high prices of plasticizers are difficult to pass down, resulting in an increase in plasticizer inventory. This week, the price of plasticizer DBP has stabilized at a high level.

The price of isooctanol has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 11th was 11240 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.23% compared to the price of 10783.33 yuan/ton on August 4th. Planned and unexpected shutdowns of domestic octanol plants have led to a tightening of the supply of isooctanol and a continuous increase in octanol prices. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has surged, and the cost of plasticizer DBP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment has become cautious. In mid to late August, two sets of isooctanol units in Shandong and Jiangsu are planned to restart, and the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose. However, there is insufficient support for the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 11th, the price of n-butanol was 7900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47% compared to the price of 8100 yuan/ton on August 4th. In some regions of China, the centralized maintenance of n-butanol units has led to a reduction in on-site supply, and tight spot circulation has supported the upward movement of the n-butanol market. Downstream demand is flat, and downstream enterprises’ procurement enthusiasm is cold. This week, the price of n-butanol has fluctuated and decreased, and the cost of plasticizer DBP has decreased. In the future, the pressure on the price of plasticizer DBP to decline has increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that in mid to late August, the expected recovery of isooctanol enterprises’ construction is insufficient support for the sustained rise in isooctanol prices; Poor demand, fluctuating prices of n-butanol, continued support for the rise of phthalic anhydride market, and insufficient support for the cost increase of plasticizer DBP products in the future. The downward pressure is increasing; Downstream PVC demand growth is poor, and plasticizer DBP demand is cold. In the future, the support from rising costs is insufficient, and downstream demand is cold and plasticizer supply is shrinking. It is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels in the future.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices have risen during the cycle. On August 7th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 9266 yuan/ton, mainly due to a decline in raw material prices in the early stage, poor downstream shipments, weak demand side performance, and a gradual increase in bearish factors on the market.

Cost side: In terms of raw materials, the market price of coal tar has started to rise, with most deep processed products showing a parallel relationship with the raw material coal tar. The enterprise operates well, actively receiving raw materials, and coal tar has entered a tight supply and rising price situation, providing strong support for the cost side of carbon black; As of August 6th, the market price of coal tar is 4757 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall operation of the domestic carbon black market is stable, with sufficient supply in the carbon black market.

In terms of demand: The overall demand of downstream tire enterprises is weak, and they are still in the traditional sales off-season. Although the market is affected by buying up rather than falling, the enthusiasm of end users for inquiries has increased. However, recently, there has been a shortage of construction and infrastructure work, leading to further weakening domestic demand. Enterprises mainly need to purchase just now, and have a clear resistance to high priced carbon black sources, resulting in weak overall demand.

Overall, the high price of raw coal tar in the market provides good support for the cost of carbon black, with low inventory levels and no significant improvement on the demand side. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and it is expected that the carbon black market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price fluctuated and fell this week, with urea prices dropping from 2622.86 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2591.43 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.20%. Weekend prices increased by 6.82% year-on-year. On August 6th, the urea commodity index was 120.53, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 20.88% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 116.78% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient cost support, weakened downstream demand, and sufficient urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream prices of urea in China have fluctuated this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly declined this week. The price of liquefied natural gas has slightly decreased, from 3678.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3630.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 1.31%. The weekend price has decreased by 43.86% year-on-year; The price of anthracite has stabilized at a low level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) at 1130 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia fluctuated and fell, dropping from 3500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3483.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.48%. The weekend price fell by 9.68% year-on-year. The upstream raw material prices have slightly decreased, which lacks support for urea prices. This week, the downstream melamine price of urea has stabilized at a low level, with a price of 6875.00 yuan/ton.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. The use of fertilizers in summer has basically ended, with sporadic fertilizer supplementation being the main focus, and agricultural demand has weakened. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises are operating at a low level, with a focus on purchasing on demand. From a supply perspective, the daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late July, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has slightly declined, and the cost support for urea is insufficient. Downstream agricultural demand has basically ended, while industrial demand is average. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and decline.

The Nitrile rubber market fluctuated slightly this week (7.28-8.4). According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of August 4, the price of Nitrile rubber was 13825 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from 13800 yuan/ton last Friday. The price of raw material butadiene and acrylonitrile rose, and the focus of cost of Nitrile rubber moved up slightly; Downstream demand continues to be weak, and market transactions remain relatively flat.

The prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile rose slightly this week (7.28-8.4), and the cost of Nitrile rubber rose slightly compared with the previous period. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 4th, the price of butadiene was 7376 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.43% from last Friday’s 7201 yuan/ton; As of August 4th, the price of acrylonitrile has increased by 4.05% from last Friday’s 8025 yuan/ton at 8350 yuan/ton.

As of August 4, the domestic Nitrile rubber plant has been started stably, and the later maintenance and restart of the enterprise coexist.

Downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries mainly have small inquiries and small transactions in the market.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that the supply of Nitrile rubber is increasing slightly at present, and the downstream inquiries are general. It is expected that the market of Nitrile rubber will continue to weaken and consolidate in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic vitamin market lowered its low level in July, with most products experiencing minor adjustments to their low levels. Some varieties returned to a stable state after experiencing changes, and overall trading remained weak.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the price of vitamin C slightly decreased in July, with a price of 23.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 23.33 yuan/kg on the 31st, a monthly decrease of 1.44%. Affected by the continuous decline in demand, the market price of vitamin C has continued to decline. With the weather turning hot, there are more planned maintenance companies and a decrease in vitamin supply. Downstream demand remains small and rigid, controlling the market situation. The focus of consolidation trading has fallen.

The price of vitamin A slightly adjusted in July, with an average price of 91.75 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 90.75 yuan/kg at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.09%. The current mainstream market quotation is 88-92 yuan/kg, and the European market quotation is 20-24 euros/kg. The weak demand in the vitamin A market has led to prices dropping to their lowest levels in recent years, with limited room for further decline.

In July, the price of vitamin E slightly adjusted, and the mainstream market price remained stable around 70 yuan/kg. The quotation for the European market is 6.9-7.35 euros/kilogram. Large domestic factories have suspended production for maintenance, and the vitamin E market has started to stabilize in the middle of the year. The willingness of factories to increase prices is obvious, with downstream demand being the main demand.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some vitamin prices have already bottomed out, and there is limited room for upstream price reductions. The market is in the stage of finding support points, and without significant positive factors to boost it, most products are expected to maintain low volatility. In the future, we will closely monitor market trends and changes in enterprise production.