Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 3350.00 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell by 9.46% year-on-year. On September 10th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 87.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 58.64% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 58.17% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Increased upstream support and better downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream orchid charcoal market slightly rose, while the downstream PVC market prices fluctuated and rose. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1100-1230 yuan/ton, and the price has increased by about 100 yuan/ton, increasing cost support. The PVC market price fluctuated slightly this week, rising from 6254.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6376.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.95%. Weekend prices fell by 1.97% year-on-year. The PVC market price continues to rise, and downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate or rise in the aftermarket

In mid to late September, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal has slightly increased, with increased cost support. The downstream PVC market continues to rise, and downstream demand is good. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will rise in a narrow range in mid to late September, with consolidation being the main focus.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3980 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the week at 3980 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%.

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable, and the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices is stable. Recently, the supply of goods on the site has been normal, and downstream procurement has been normal. The situation of goods on the site is average, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable. Recently, the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizers has been average, and the procurement in the domestic downstream civilian explosive industry is normal. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the price of ammonium nitrate has been stable recently. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are between 5200-5300 yuan/ton, Shandong region is between 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is between 3900-4000 yuan/ton.

This week, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China has increased. As of the weekend, the average price of nitric acid in China was 2133.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.06% compared to the price of 2050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2100 to 2200 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 2000 to 2200 yuan/ton. At present, the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market has not changed much, and the cost trend has increased. The supply of the concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the market mainly relies on orders. The market trading volume has improved. Industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see, and the prices of nitric acid on the market have risen, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia has increased this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 3833.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.48% compared to the price of 3600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Recently, the domestic liquid ammonia market has risen, mainly due to a decrease in supply in the main production areas, and some units are still in shutdown, resulting in a decline in supply. Prices of large factories in Shandong, Hubei, Hebei, and other regions have increased. On the demand side, the current agricultural demand is moderate, with stable domestic and export demand for compound fertilizers and reduced inventory from manufacturers, which provides a certain positive support for the liquid ammonia market. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3800-3900 yuan/ton. The rise in upstream liquid ammonia prices has brought some positive support to the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of the ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand situation in the downstream civilian explosive industry has been normal, with a slight increase in demand for nitro compound fertilizers. The price trend of upstream nitric acid has increased, coupled with the rising price of liquid ammonia. The spot supply of ammonium nitrate is relatively normal, and ammonium nitrate analysts from Business Society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate will mainly rise in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic vitamin market continued to decline in August, with concentrated maintenance by vitamin manufacturers, tight supply, and weak production and sales during the off-season of demand.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the price of vitamin C slightly decreased in August, with a price of 23.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 22.33 yuan/kg on the 31st, a monthly decrease of 4.29%. Affected by the continuous decline in demand, the market price of vitamin C has continued to decline. With the weather turning hot, there are more planned maintenance companies and a decrease in vitamin supply. Downstream demand remains small and rigid, controlling the market situation. The focus of consolidation trading has fallen.

The price of vitamin A slightly adjusted in July, with an average price of 90.75 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 89.5 yuan/kg at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.38%. The current mainstream market quotation is around 85 yuan/kg, while the European market quotation is 20-24 euros/kg. The weak demand in the vitamin A market has led to prices dropping to their lowest levels in recent years, with limited room for further decline.

In July, the price of vitamin E slightly adjusted, and the mainstream market price remained stable around 70 yuan/kg. The quotation for the European market is 7-7.5 euros/kilogram. Large domestic factories have suspended production for maintenance, and the vitamin E market has shown a stabilizing trend. In July 2023, China’s vitamin E export volume was 5697.54 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%,

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some vitamin prices have already bottomed out, and there is limited room for upstream price reductions. The market is in the stage of finding support points, and without significant positive factors to boost it, most products are expected to maintain low volatility. In the future, we will closely monitor market trends and changes in enterprise production.

Price trend

The domestic POM market was strong in August, and spot prices continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the mixed price of domestic POM was 14350 yuan/ton, a decrease of+13.66% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region increased in August. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has been rising since the end of June and continues to rise this month. The raw material methanol market is fluctuating and rising, and formaldehyde manufacturers are operating normally. The demand for downstream panel factories is mainly maintaining demand, and production enterprises are under great pressure to ship. Formaldehyde mainly increases with fluctuations in raw materials, which provides reasonable support for POM costs.

On the supply side:

The overall operating rate of domestic POM enterprises decreased this month, and due to frequent maintenance, the industry load decreased to below 83%. Although the high load situation continued last month, inventory was low in August, and most companies had no inventory pressure, even experiencing negative inventory oversold. The tight supply of goods combined with supply contraction has led to sustained strong support for POM supply.

In terms of demand:

At present, the operating level of downstream POM enterprises in China is not high, but due to the stimulation of tight supply, the atmosphere of speculation on the market remains high. The enthusiasm for stocking is acceptable, and the transaction position of the order is high. Overall, the level of spot price support for POM on the demand side is acceptable.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market continued to rise in August. The high operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has declined, and the shortage of goods on site has worsened. There is currently no industry inventory pressure, and suppliers have strong support for spot goods. On the demand side, the impact of high temperatures, power restrictions, and other factors may lead to a decrease in the operating rate of terminal enterprises. However, there are frequent market chasing operations, and downstream users have slight resistance to high priced goods. Traders’ confidence remains strong, and the sentiment of speculation on the market remains strong. At the beginning of September, some enterprises still have maintenance plans, and it is expected that the POM market will continue to strengthen in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isopropanol increased in August. At the beginning of the month, the average price of isopropanol in China was 7580 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average price was 7700 yuan/ton. During the month, the price increased by 2.64%.

Overall, the market price of isopropanol increased in August. In the early days of the market, prices fluctuated and went up. Downstream procurement tends to be cautious, with on-demand orders being the main focus, and many businesses maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. In the middle of the month, the market price of isopropanol rose, while the upstream acetone market price first rose and then fell. The price of propylene increased, and cost support was still acceptable. The overall market trading is relatively active, with many inquiries on the market and difficult to find low prices, resulting in on-demand transactions. In late October, the isopropanol market declined and the trading atmosphere on the market was weak. The decline in upstream acetone prices has dampened confidence in the isopropanol market. Downstream orders are just in need, and the demand lacks support. They are cautious in picking up goods and mainly wait and see. The buying enthusiasm is not high, and the shipment from the holding company is relatively soft. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 7400-7700 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8000-8300 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw acetone, the domestic acetone market fluctuated and fell in August. At the beginning of August, the average price of acetone was 6987.5 yuan/ton, while at the end of August, the average price was 6850 yuan/ton. During the month, the price decreased by 1.97%. In August, the enthusiasm of terminal factories to enter the market was not high, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the market increased. Most factories were mainly based on contracts, while downstream processing enterprises entered the market with caution. The participation of intermediate traders was limited, and overall market trading was cautious. Business Society expects short-term adjustment of acetone range..

In terms of propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fluctuated in August and overall rose. At the beginning of August, the market average was 6713.25 yuan/ton, with an average price of 7000.75 yuan/ton on August 31st, a monthly increase of 4.28%. Due to the impact of maintenance on the propylene unit, supply has been tightened, and the enterprise’s inventory is under pressure, resulting in smooth production and sales. In terms of downstream demand, rigid demand is the main focus, with stable demand and a decent transaction atmosphere. Business Society predicts that the short-term trend of propylene will continue to be strong.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believes that the price of raw acetone has fluctuated downward, while the price of propylene has fluctuated upward, and overall cost support is still acceptable. At present, downstream orders are mainly received on demand, and many businesses maintain a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that in the short term, the trading volume in the isopropanol market will be relatively light, and the market will be weak in consolidation and operation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of 50% potassium sulfate content at the beginning of this month was 3283 yuan/ton, and the price of 50% potassium sulfate content at the end of this month was 3333 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.52%.

The domestic market price of potassium sulfate has risen with the price of potassium chloride. Recently, the number of inquiries for granular potassium sulfate in the northern market has significantly increased. Currently, Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturers have many pending orders in the early stage, and some factories have been taking orders until mid to late September. The factory continues to be in a state of tight supply and zero inventory. Resource based potassium sulfate manufacturers are mostly waiting for production to resume in September. Currently, resource based manufacturers are cautious about the resumption of production by Guotou Luo Potassium and Qinghai CITIC Guoan. Currently, the market has limited stock and prices are slightly chaotic.

The autumn market production is in full swing, with raw material prices continuing to rise, nitrogen fertilizer prices fluctuating, and phosphorus and potassium prices rising all the way. Downstream compound fertilizer factories have found it slightly difficult to purchase raw materials, and most factories maintain a “use and pick” model for potassium fertilizer, with cautious factory operations.

Prediction: In the domestic potassium fertilizer market, buying up is not buying down, and market inquiries are positive. Most regions are reluctant to sell, and it is expected that the market price may mainly show a slight upward trend.

In August 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market fluctuated and rose, with the average market price in East China reaching 75750 yuan/ton on the 1st and 79750 yuan/ton on the 29th, an increase of 5.28%.

On August 28th, the antimony commodity index was 111.02, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 8.60% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.46 points (2023 March 15), and an increase of 136.31% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently seen an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival. The price fell broadly in March, remained stable in April and May, and continued to decline for seven consecutive weeks after June. At the end of July, it continued to rise for four consecutive weeks.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market continued to decline in July, with a quote of $11750/ton as of the 29th, an increase of $300/ton compared to the same period last month.

In terms of the industrial chain, the antimony oxide market slightly rebounded in August following the trend of antimony ingots. Driven by the antimony ingot market, the monthly increase was 2000 to 3000 yuan/ton. Currently, market trading is light, and downstream demand is generally weak. Export orders have been affected by the summer break, which has led to poor performance. According to customs data, the export volume of antimony oxide in July decreased by about 30% compared to the same period last year, and the overall market demand performance is weak.

The market price of antimony ingots continued to rise slightly in August, ending the downward trend of the antimony ingot market in the past two months. Previously, under the long-term supply and demand game, downstream performance was lukewarm and tepid, and antimony ingot smelting enterprises gradually relaxed their mentality of price support. The antimony ingot market has been continuously declining in price since June. After entering August, the smelter took the lead in raising prices, and the antimony ingot market stopped falling. Subsequently, with the improvement of market mentality and the achievement of just needed transactions in downstream parts, market information improved compared to the previous period. The antimony ingot price gradually rebounded, and overseas prices rose, once again boosting domestic market confidence. The antimony ingot market rebounded by about 4000 yuan/ton within the month. However, there has been little change in domestic supply and demand compared to the previous period, with weak supply and demand. Downstream demand is still weak, and the principle of purchasing antimony ingots on demand is maintained. Refineries have raised prices for antimony ingots, but downstream demand is weak, and there is limited room for further upward growth in the future. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China increased in August. As of the 28th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9766.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.99% from the beginning of the month’s price of 9483.33 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.52%.

Supply side: Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has risen, and the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed in various regions in China has increased to 9700-10100 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have been shut down and waiting for the market, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation for hydrofluoric acid from manufacturers is normal, with anhydrous hydrofluoric acid starting at around 60%. Some enterprises still have inventory, but due to strong costs, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has increased.

Cost side: The price trend of domestic fluorite has increased. As of the 28th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3150 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.07% compared to the first day price of 3056.25 yuan/ton. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises remains low, and upstream mining is still tense. Backward mines will continue to be phased out, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and fluorite mines are operating insufficiently, resulting in environmental protection The requirements of emergency management departments and others are becoming stricter, and the difficulty of starting mining has increased. Due to the tight supply of raw materials, the fluorite market is unlikely to improve in the short term. The focus of spot negotiations has strengthened, and downstream enterprises have followed up on demand. Cost support has led to a rise in the price of hydrofluoric acid in the market.

In August, the market price of sulfuric acid skyrocketed. As of the 28th, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid was 294 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 83.75% compared to the price of 160 yuan/ton on the first day. The upstream sulfur market of sulfuric acid has continued to rise recently, and cost support has increased. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and multiple positive factors jointly support the upward trend of sulfuric acid products. The sharp rise in sulfuric acid prices has boosted the domestic hydrofluoric acid market.

On the demand side: The market for refrigerant products downstream of the terminal remains low, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has slightly decreased. In addition, the refrigerant market has experienced a long-term downward trend, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement needs to follow up, and the demand peak season is gradually turning weak. Currently, overseas export orders have not significantly improved, and the price of R22 has slightly decreased. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is temporarily stable. Some enterprises have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is no mentality of buying low-priced orders. Some merchants have temporarily stabilized the price trend, and the demand for consumer orders has not significantly improved. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 24500 to 25500 yuan/ton. Supply and cost factors have driven refrigerant enterprises to have a clear intention to increase prices, and refrigerant prices are stable. The market situation in the downstream refrigerant industry has not changed much, but the refrigerant operating rate remains low. For the hydrofluoric acid market, on-demand procurement is the main focus, and the price increase in the hydrofluoric acid market is limited.

Future forecast: The market trend of upstream raw material fluorite is on the rise, fluorite enterprises have a strong intention to raise prices, and sulfuric acid prices are significantly higher; The downstream refrigerant industry is operating at a low level, with the main focus on on-demand procurement of hydrofluoric acid. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that in the short term, the hydrofluoric acid market is mainly affected by cost and the price trend is rising.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the vitamin market has been in operation this week, with some products stabilizing after a decline, some products entering a maintenance concentration period, and most product prices running at the bottom, lacking upward momentum.

According to price monitoring by Business Society, the vitamin C market has been running smoothly this week, with mainstream feed grade vitamin C quotes of 20-22 yuan/kg. The overall trading volume in the vitamin C market is light, with a high proportion of small orders being traded. Downstream markets just need to enter the market, with weak demand. The overall market situation is mostly in line with the market, and there is currently no significant positive support, indicating a weak performance.

This week, the price of vitamin A is running at a low level. The mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A in the market is 85-90 yuan/kg, and the European market is quoting 20-24 euros/kg. The transaction volume in the vitamin A market is stable. Due to the extended maintenance of foreign vitamin A factories, the domestic export market has performed well and the export volume has steadily increased.

This week, the prices of vitamin E have been at a low level, with mainstream prices in the VE market ranging from 68 to 73 yuan/ton. The quotation for the European market is 7-7.5 euros/kilogram. Some large domestic factories are in the maintenance period and have suspended pricing. On August 1st, DSM VE products were suspended, increasing market attention.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some vitamins are currently in the bottom consolidation stage, with small and mostly single traded transactions on the market, lacking upward momentum. They will closely monitor the production, sales, and market trends of enterprises in the future.

Overview of the price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis for this week

According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of the 18th, the average market price of magnesium ingots in China was 21966.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.15% on a weekly basis. At the beginning of the week, there was a slight downward trend in the magnesium ingot market. Magnesium factories started to sell at high prices, and the magnesium price once again hit the 22000 yuan/ton mark. However, the market’s high prices were weak, and the price remained stable at 21900-22000 yuan/ton by Friday.

In terms of supply and demand

In terms of factories, considering the trend of inventory decline due to downstream restocking this week, and the slow resumption of production in magnesium factories, the market operating rate this week is about 47.52%. The factory has a strong willingness to raise prices, and it is difficult to find low-priced goods on the market. In terms of demand, downstream customers’ inquiry and procurement activity has increased this week, but facing rising magnesium prices, traders’ procurement enthusiasm has gradually decreased. In terms of overseas demand, the summer break abroad is about to end, and there may be a slight growth trend in overseas orders.

In terms of raw materials

This week, ferrosilicon futures have continued to decline, with only a slight rebound on Friday, and spot prices have slightly decreased by 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is relatively low, and the steel bidding prices generally increased in August, while the willingness of ferrosilicon manufacturers to further reduce is relatively low. The carbon market is operating steadily, and currently the overall inventory of the blue charcoal market is low, with stable market transactions being the main focus. The current prices of blue charcoal in the main national markets are as follows: the mainstream prices of small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market are 970-1100 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 700-780 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the supply side of magnesium ingots has further contracted, and under relatively low supply pressure from factories, they tend to hold a mentality of high prices and reluctance to sell. Considering the downstream wait-and-see sentiment, it is expected that the short-term magnesium price will remain stable and slightly strong.