1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda has been improving this week. The average market price on December 4th was 2635 yuan/ton, and on December 11th it was 2680 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.71% and a year-on-year increase of 6.03%. On December 10th, the baking soda commodity index was 176.95, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 24.97% from the cycle’s highest point of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 100.46% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22nd, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is strong and the downstream market is purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is strong and the mainstream market quotation is around 2500-2900 yuan/ton. According to the product analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash in the upstream of baking soda remains strong. The average market price on December 4th was 2680 yuan/ton, and on December 11th it was 2780 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.73%, up 5.3% from the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been strong in recent times, and the upstream raw material of soda ash has been strong in recent times. The downstream demand for baking soda, including pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, is still acceptable. Supported by raw materials, it is expected that baking soda prices will remain strong in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, this week the industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate in Shanxi was priced at 5475 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.92% month on month, and the current price has dropped by 6.81% year-on-year.

potassium nitrate

This week, the domestic potassium nitrate market has been volatile and consolidating. From the above chart, it can be seen that after a continuous slight increase in the potassium nitrate market, the market has remained basically stable this week. Domestic potassium manufacturers have sufficient supply, border trade sources have slightly increased, and prices have fallen. The potassium nitrate market is trading coldly, with average transactions and market consolidation. According to the statistics of Business Society, the mainstream domestic potassium nitrate manufacturers quoted 5200-5500 yuan/ton this week (for reference only), and the prices may vary depending on the procurement situation.

Recently, the prices of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers have fluctuated: 60% of the port’s large red particles are priced at around 3000-3150 yuan/ton, and 62% of the border trade’s Russian white potassium is priced at around 2850 yuan/ton, with prices temporarily stable. The domestic potassium chloride market has a large supply of imported goods, and it is expected that the potassium chloride market will be weak and consolidate in the future.

Recently, domestic potassium chloride prices have fallen, and cost support has been poor. Downstream demand for essential procurement is maintained, and it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly decline in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline this week, and the price of lithium carbonate can be said to have plummeted. On December 7th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 110000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.86% compared to the average price of 123400 yuan/ton on December 1st. On December 7th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 119400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.9% compared to the average price of 134000 yuan/ton on December 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that lithium carbonate prices have been in a continuous downward trend since December, and lithium carbonate futures prices have fallen deeply for several consecutive days, with the highest daily decline reaching 7%. In terms of supply, after the large salt lake factory released goods last week, the market has a relatively sufficient supply of spot goods. In addition, Zhili’s exports to domestic lithium carbonate in October have recently arrived in Hong Kong one after another. Although most of this lithium carbonate is reserved for long-term orders, it will still bring an increase in market supply in the short term. Trading companies are also continuously in a strategy of selling individual orders at low prices.

In terms of demand, downstream positive electrode material companies are still in a low mood for purchasing goods, only replenishing inventory sporadically during periods of low prices. However, due to the continuous decline in prices, downstream positive electrode material companies are also relatively cautious in their willingness to purchase loose orders. Some individual positive electrode materials have the idea of clearing their raw material inventory before the end of the year, making it difficult for short-term market procurement demand to increase.

The price of lithium hydroxide is showing a downward trend, affected by the decline in upstream spodumene concentrate prices and the weak operation of the lithium carbonate market. Cost support is weak, and downstream demand for high nickel materials is limited. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weak.

Downstream prices of lithium iron phosphate have declined, with few individual trades in the market, mainly long orders. On the cost side, the price of lithium salts has fallen, and the price of iron phosphate is also falling, leading to a decrease in the production cost of iron lithium materials. There is no significant increase in demand for the demand side, power side, and energy storage side, and the finished battery cells are still being stocked, resulting in limited procurement of lithium iron phosphate.

In terms of futures, lithium carbonate futures have fallen on 17 of the past 18 trading days, and hit the limit on November 22, November 27, and December 5, respectively. Futures prices have repeatedly hit new lows on the market. On December 7th, the main contracts and other contracts of lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose the limit one after another. On December 7th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract was 93300 yuan/ton, with the highest price of 95600 yuan/ton and the latest price of 95600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 6.99%. The transaction volume was 182000 lots and the position was 124068 lots.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Carbonate, in the current situation of imbalanced supply and demand of mobile lithium carbonate, spot prices will still be under pressure. However, the decline in lithium carbonate prices has already brought great pressure to some high cost lithium salt enterprises, and upstream lithium salt factories have a high proportion of losses. Therefore, lithium salt enterprises often formulate production plans based on long-term sales. With the arrival of winter, lithium carbonate is in the off-season of production, so the supply will slow down. It is expected that the spot price of lithium carbonate will continue to operate weakly under pressure in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of pure benzene has slightly declined this month, with a sharp decline in prices in the middle and late stages. On November 1st, the price was 7913 yuan/ton; On November 30th, the price was 7200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.01% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 10.05% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

Pure benzene: Yesterday, pure benzene in East China continued to decline, with active sellers selling. Downstream customers had a poor buying atmosphere, and market negotiations continued to decline due to news of unplanned parking in some downstream markets. The Shandong refinery reported a significant drop in prices, but the magnitude of the drop was lower than market expectations, resulting in weak transactions. The rebound of crude oil is expected to provide support for sentiment, and East China pure benzene is expected to consolidate at a low level in the morning.

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 850 yuan/ton to 7200 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil: Although US commercial crude oil inventories have increased for the sixth consecutive week, the market continues to focus on OPEC+meetings and supply side performance, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 01 rose $1.45 per barrel, or 1.90%, at 77.86; ICE oil futures contract 01 rose $1.42 per barrel, or 1.74%, at 83.10. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2401, rose 4.7 to 577.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 8.3 to 585.7 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

External market: FOB South Korea increased by 8 to 847 yuan/ton, CFR China increased by 7.5 US dollars to 871 US dollars/ton, FOB Southeast Asia increased by 8 to 822.5 US dollars/ton, FOB Rotterdam and CIF ARA increased by 20 to 871 US dollars/ton, FOB US Gulf stabilized by 326 US cents/gallon.

The fundamentals are showing a downward trend in the short term, with sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene may continue to decline in the short term, and we are waiting to see if the cost and demand sides can improve. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in demand and downstream equipment dynamics on the price of pure benzene.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the PP market in November first rose and then fell, with prices of various wire drawing brands fluctuating. As of December 1st, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of -1.29% compared to the average price level in early November.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, at the beginning of the month, market confidence was strengthened due to the impact of the third quarter economic data and external inflation easing signals, and upstream support for PP increased. But with the impact of Russia’s tariff adjustment and OPEC’s production reduction in the second half of the month, international crude oil prices have fallen, along with a decline in propylene prices. Due to the rising transportation costs of natural gas and propane, the price of PDH has increased. The methanol market is relatively stable. Upstream raw materials fluctuate, with overall support for PP initially increasing and then decreasing.

The direction of raw materials varies, and the cost side shows a weakening trend in supporting PP. In terms of industry load, although there were new production units in the polypropylene industry in November, some enterprises had unplanned maintenance, with an average load of around 77%, a decrease from October. The overall supply of goods is abundant, and it is expected that there will be a stable increase in production in the future, but the magnitude is not significant, and the pressure on on-site supply will remain. In terms of demand, downstream plastic weaving production is maintained at around 45%, while the production rate of film materials and injection molding enterprises is maintained at over 60%, and the overall position remains stable. Terminal enterprises maintain cautious operations in purchasing goods, with average trading activity on the exchange, and the overall market for wire drawing materials has initially increased and then decreased.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of December 1st, the domestic spot price of fiber PP also rose first and then fell. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7612.50 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of -0.81% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 4.84% compared to the same period last year. In November, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials saw an increase in load, with an operating rate level close to 39%. The digestion speed of end products has accelerated due to the frequent occurrence of influenza, and the demand for fiber materials in the market has only slightly increased. The price of non-woven fabrics follows the market trend. It is expected that the market for fiber materials will continue in the short term, and it is recommended to closely monitor the domestic supply and demand situation.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market in November saw a narrow decline after consolidation. As of December 1st, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 8237.50 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is -1.35%, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.47%. At present, the demand for facial protection in China has not increased significantly, and the impact of seasonal climate on the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials still needs to be transmitted for a while. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. It is expected that the melt blown material market will maintain a narrow consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market rose first and then fell in November. The trend of upstream raw materials fluctuates, and the cost side provides support for the market from high to low. Terminal enterprises maintain the initial level of production, and their procurement operations tend to be biased towards rigid demand. The new production of PP equipment in the second half of the month is on par with the temporary inspection. The current PP fundamentals are bearish, and it is expected that the PP market will maintain a narrow and weak operation in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor international crude oil related news.

The dichloromethane market fluctuated and weakened in November. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.72% from 2575 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point of the month was 2610 yuan/ton, and the low point was 2410 yuan/ton. Due to the tight supply side in the early stage, prices remained strong. In the later stage, on the one hand, the support for raw materials weakened, and on the other hand, the pressure on the supply and demand side further increased, resulting in a weak and downward trend in the dichloromethane market.

In the first half of November, the start-up of methane chloride plants was affected by the maintenance of some enterprise facilities, resulting in an overall decline. The lowest start-up value in the first half of the month was around 6.2%; In the second half of the month, with the resumption of production of early maintenance equipment, the operating rate gradually increased to around 7.6%.

The cost support for dichloromethane in November was strong before and weak after

In November, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and rose, while the price of liquid chlorine remained strong at the previous high level and significantly decreased at the end of the month. The cost support for dichloromethane weakened from strong to weak. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of November 30th, the spot price of methanol was 2510 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.50% from 2425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 2520 yuan/ton, and the low point was 2365 yuan/ton; At the end of November, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was 300 yuan/ton, which was lower than the price of 600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Affected by the low starting point of equipment maintenance in the first half of the month, the supply of dichloromethane was tight, and the price of dichloromethane remained firm; In the second half of the month, on the one hand, the construction will improve the recovery of the supply side, and on the other hand, the willingness of merchants to hoard goods is low. Downstream terminals are only supported by rigid demand, and the inventory of methane chloride enterprises has slightly increased, leading to a decline in prices.

Market forecast: According to analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data, the cost of dichloromethane still has support, but the demand side is weak. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

In November, the domestic acetone market first suppressed and then rose, showing a slight downward trend overall. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the national acetone market has experienced a decrease of 1.4 yuan/ton from 7162 yuan/ton on November 1st to 7062 yuan/ton on November 30th.

Average price trend chart of acetone in the national market

The acetone quotations in major mainstream markets across the country on November 30th are as follows:

Region/ Price on November 30th/ Monthly fluctuations

East China region/ 6800./100

Shandong region/ 6950./100

Yanshan region/ 6950./100

South China region/ 7600./50

At the beginning of the month, there was sufficient supply of domestic resources, timely replenishment of port volume, and a large flow of spot goods in the market. From a downstream perspective, more terminals were purchased according to demand, with more single orders being negotiated, and overall small orders being the main focus. Traders offered according to the market.

In the middle of the month, the maintenance equipment of the phenol ketone factory was relatively concentrated, and many large units reported parking plans. In the situation where the expected shortage of spot resources was approaching, the intention of traders to ship at a low level weakened, and the prices quickly increased. Terminal factories entered the market to supplement, and the trading atmosphere improved. Although the factories still controlled the shipping pace at the end of the month, the overall purchasing power of downstream was limited, and the market maintained a strong operation.

In December, the domestic acetone market may show a mixed trend of ups and downs. In terms of supply, the new production capacity of Hengli Petrochemical is expected to be released in December, and the expectation of import contracts being the main focus is relatively average. From the demand side, downstream bisphenol A may have new production capacity released, while other downstream isopropanol and MMA will follow up as needed. It is expected that the acetone market in East China will fluctuate within the range of 6600-7200 yuan/ton in December.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the domestic vitamin market continued to decline in November, with some products experiencing an intensified decline and the market remaining sluggish.

According to price monitoring by Business Society, the decline in vitamin C prices intensified in November, with a price of 20 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 18.67 yuan/kg on the 29th, a monthly decrease of 6.65%. Affected by the continuous decline in demand, raw material prices have continued to decline, and the market price of vitamin C has continued to decline. Upstream quotations are subject to market trends, while downstream prices are subject to demand and purchase, with a focus on immediate needs.

The price of vitamin A continued to decline in November, with an average price of 82 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 79 yuan/kg at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 5.14%. The current mainstream market quotation is around 70-75 yuan/kg, and the European market quotation is 18-20 euros/kg. The demand for vitamin A in the market is weak, and domestic and foreign enterprises have extended their parking time. The supply side is tightening, but due to the weak demand side, the price center of vitamin A continues to shift downwards.

In November, the price of vitamin E continued to decline, with the mainstream market price around 65 yuan/kg. The European market quotation is 6.5-6.6 euros/kg. Large domestic factories have suspended production for maintenance, and the vitamin E market continues to decline. In October 2023, China’s export volume of vitamin E reached 6079.5 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and a month on month decrease of 16.7%. The demand in the export market is steadily increasing.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believe that the current market for most vitamins is in a bottoming out stage, and the market is in the stage of finding support points. Without obvious positive factors to boost it, it is expected that most products will maintain low volatility. In the future, we will closely monitor market trends and changes in enterprise production.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong was volatile and consolidated in November. At the beginning of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1193.33 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1180.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12%. The current price has dropped by 12.16% compared to last year.

formaldehyde

In November, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region slightly decreased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the formaldehyde market has fluctuated less in the past three months, and orders were placed slightly this month. As of November 28th, the mainstream market price in Shandong region is 1100-1240 yuan/ton. In November, the raw material methanol market fluctuated and stabilized, with average cost support. The demand for downstream board factories continued to be weak due to environmental impact. Formaldehyde manufacturers started operating normally, and production enterprises faced significant shipping pressure, resulting in a downward trend in the market.

Upstream methanol situation: In November, the domestic methanol market was weak and consolidated, with weak coal prices and insufficient cost support. Although there was an expectation of a reduction in imports in December, overall imports remained at a high level, and supply side pressure remained. The total supply of methanol in the market is sufficient, and the downstream has entered the traditional off-season. For methanol, the main demand is for purchasing and the price is significantly reduced. Business Society Methanol Analyst predicts that the domestic methanol market is mainly weak and consolidating.

In recent times, the methanol market has been mainly fluctuating downward, with poor cost support and average demand from downstream sheet metal factories. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe predict that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly decline slightly in the near future.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the prices of stainless steel and nickel continued to decline in November. As of the end of the month, the spot price of stainless steel was 12628.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.16% compared to the beginning of the month. As of the end of the month, the spot nickel quotation for upstream nickel was 124700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.66% compared to the beginning of the month. In November, the new production of electroplated nickel continued to increase, and a large number of intermediate nickel products were put into production. Nickel sulfate and pure nickel were inverted, and the production of nickel sulfate by dissolving nickel beans was no longer advantageous. The electroplated nickel produced by nickel sulfate had more advantages. Driven by profits, production gradually transitioned from a shortage of supply to an excess situation in the pure nickel market, and nickel prices continued to decline. However, downstream stainless steel prices have further declined due to factors such as lower costs and weak downstream demand.

Macro surface bias

After Powell’s speech, US short-term interest rate futures traders postponed the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut from May next year to June. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices for residents in October decreased by 0.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month on month. Retail sales in the United States remained resilient in October, which to some extent offset recent optimism about a decline in US inflation. The US dollar index and US bond yields showed signs of peaking and falling in early November, supporting the momentum behind the high level operation of the US dollar index and US bond yields – the core CPI also showed a sustained weakening trend. The excess savings of current US residents are about to be depleted in the fourth quarter, and the tightening financial environment will gradually affect the judgment of residents on their balance sheets.

Nickel fundamental surface

Comprehensive oversupply of nickel

The new production increase of electroplated nickel can be continuously increased, and a large number of intermediate nickel products are put into production. Nickel sulfate and pure nickel are inverted, and the production of nickel sulfate by dissolving nickel beans is no longer advantageous. The electroplated nickel produced by nickel sulfate has more advantages. Driven by profits, production has gradually transitioned from a supply shortage to an excess situation in the pure nickel market. The growth rate of NPI project production in Indonesia, the reduction in production of Qingshan stainless steel project in Indonesia, the decrease in local consumption of nickel iron in Indonesia, and the increase in domestic flow back, have squeezed into the domestic nickel iron market with low cost. In the fourth quarter, Indonesian Chinese enterprises increased their production capacity and operating rates for high ice nickel and refined nickel from China and Indonesia. However, short-term oversupply still suppresses the potential for nickel price increases.

LME nickel inventory slightly increased

As shown in the above figure, LME nickel inventory slightly increased in November. As of the end of the month, LME nickel inventory was 44898 tons, an increase of 0.25% from the beginning of the month and a decrease of 18.92% from the beginning of the year. The global refined nickel explicit inventory maintains an accumulation trend.

Weak demand

Downstream 300 series stainless steel production stoppage and production reduction have expanded, and overall inventory remains at a high level, resulting in certain losses for stainless steel plants. Alloy is the main downstream of pure nickel, with better demand for military and ship alloys, and inferior demand for civilian alloys. The demand for electroplating is relatively stable.

Stainless steel basic surface

Steel mills shut down, reduce production, and expand production

Downstream 300 series stainless steel maintenance shutdown and production reduction have expanded, and overall inventory remains at a high level. Stainless steel plants have incurred certain losses, but production still maintains an incremental trend, and the steel market as a whole is showing a weak operation.

As of the end of the month, the total inventory of stainless steel was 995300 tons, a decrease of 5.43% compared to the beginning of the month. The overall inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased, but it is still at a relatively high level.

Downstream demand is sluggish

Although domestic macro policies have once again intensified, downstream demand is sluggish, and there is greater pressure on stainless steel. Due to the recent decline in nickel iron and nickel ore prices, the cost of stainless steel has decreased, and poor terminal demand has led to negative feedback in the industrial chain, resulting in weak mining prices.

Annual price comparison chart of nickel stainless steel

According to the annual price comparison chart of Business Society, in the past five years, the price of stainless steel has fluctuated in December, and the probability of nickel price increase in December is relatively high.

In summary, Indonesia’s nickel iron reflux remains high, nickel iron prices frequently decline, domestic nickel iron factories suffer losses, the industry chain shows negative feedback, nickel ore prices are under pressure and downward, demand for nickel in new energy batteries is low, battery grade nickel sulfate continues to decline, excess nickel element pressure continues to transmit towards pure nickel, and downward pressure on nickel prices to break through levels is expanding. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to operate in a weak and volatile manner.

For stainless steel, the cost side has moved downwards and there is no sign of a rebound. As we enter the low demand season in December, it is expected that stainless steel prices will continue to operate weakly.