I. price trend

II. Market analysis

This week, the weak domestic potassium sulfate did not change. Manheim potassium sulfate factory offers about 2650% powder, 2750% particles and 52% water-soluble powder in Hebei Province; and about 2550% powder, 2700% particles and 52% water-soluble powder in Shandong Province. The price of potassium sulphate in the water salt system is small and backward, and the sales situation has not changed significantly for the time being. Although Manheim manufacturers have reported more inquiries recently, and some manufacturers have reported a slight drop in their inventory, the overall sales pressure is still large. It is understood that at present, 50% of the powder supply agents of Qinghai factory quote 2500-2550 yuan / ton at the station, and 52% of the powder in Xinjiang is about 2620-2650.

III. future forecast

According to analysts of potassium sulphate of the business association, the volume of new potassium sulphate orders in various markets is flat, the upstream support is general, the demand is not strong, and the volume and price in various regions are still weak. It is expected that in the near future, low-end prices will stabilize and consolidate temporarily, while high-end prices will continue to decline.

On December 9, the HFA commodity index was 91.20, unchanged from yesterday, down 35.06% from 140.43 (2018-02-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 70.18% from 53.59, the lowest point on November 30, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

According to statistics, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in China has increased slightly. Up to now, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in China is 10140 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of hydrofluoric acid in China is less than 60%. The enterprise reflects the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field. In the near future, the market of hydrofluoric acid in the field has improved. Because the downstream demand is not small, the price of some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers has increased, and the price of hydrofluoric acid has increased Market prices rose slightly. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is about 9500-11000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 9500-10500 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly higher, and the spot supply is available, but the demand situation is not clearly improved, and the price of hydrofluoric acid market is not rising much.

The price of fluorite in the upstream market kept fluctuating. As of the 10th day, the price of fluorite was 2883.33 yuan / ton. The fluctuating price of raw materials in the upstream brought a certain cost support to the hydrofluoric acid market. The price of hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly due to the price support of raw fluorite. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal has increased slightly. At present, the automobile industry has entered the cycle of goods preparation. The supply of R22 in China is tight. The market price of R22 in China has increased. The starting load of the manufacturer’s production unit is still not high. The supply capacity of the market source has declined. The downstream air conditioning manufacturer has maintained the demand, but the supply is tight. The price of domestic large enterprises is mainly Flow rose to 14500-17500 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China has increased slightly, and the unit operating rate of production enterprises has maintained a low level. At present, the automobile industry has entered the stock cycle, and the demand for R134a has slightly improved, while the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price has slightly increased, the downstream market has improved, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has slightly increased.

The transaction situation in the refrigerant yard has improved, and the unit operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. For the upstream hydrofluoric acid market, purchase is on demand. However, with the decrease of fluorite supply and the support of cost, Chen Ling, an analyst of the business agency, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise slightly.

I. price trend:

According to a large number of data from the business club, the market of PA6 in the first week of December was stable for the time being, and the prices of various brands were up and down. The main offer price of traders for Zhongzhu 2.75-2.85 is about 12666.67 yuan / ton, which is the same as the level at the beginning of the month.

II. Analysis of influencing factors:

The domestic market of PA6 upstream caprolactam continued to decline this week due to weak terminal demand. On the upstream side, the domestic cyclohexanone market is weak, the confidence in the industry is insufficient, the terminal procurement is cautious, and the market is down. At present, trading is cold and weak in the short term. The domestic pure benzene market, the East China pure benzene market remains firm, the import market negotiation goes up, the on-site wait-and-see increases, and the external market gains have not produced an effective boost. The upstream raw material cost pressure is still on, the downstream slice market atmosphere is cold, production and sales are flat, and the demand side has not changed. Although the equipment maintenance enterprises have been restarted one after another, there is still resistance. It is expected that the decline of caprolactam will gradually slow down in the later period, with low consolidation as the main trend; the upstream caprolactam will weaken, with poor support for PA6. In addition, at present, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient while the downstream purchase and documentary are insufficient, the volume of transactions is less, and the shipping resistance of merchants is greater. Affected by the above multiple empty, domestic PA6 spot prices have declined. At present, the domestic PA6 production, trade and e-commerce are operating at a low price.

3. Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in early December, the domestic PA6 market was weak and stable, while the spot price was stable for the time being. Upstream caprolactam continued to decline, poor support for PA6 cost end. Downstream factories just need replenishment operation, the demand is flat and the list is light. It is expected that PA6 will continue to be weak in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market is stable. As of December 6, the average price of the domestic methanol market is 2152 yuan / ton. The price is 0.12% higher than that of the same period last month and 9.56% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: methanol market in China is stable, with slight adjustment in some areas. Most enterprises in the domestic market offer stable prices, and some units in Southwest China are shut down. Under the tight supply, the market price of methanol in this region has moved up, and some enterprises have stopped selling due to low inventory. In the port market, futures prices continue to move up, supporting the rise of spot prices. In the short term, we need to continue to pay attention to the changes in port inventory.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: the domestic formaldehyde market is light and stable. The company’s offer is stable temporarily, the upstream methanol narrow range finishing operation has no impact on the formaldehyde market temporarily, the downstream market just needs to purchase, and the overall transaction is relatively general. In the near future, there are environmental regulations in some areas, formaldehyde and downstream markets may be lower, and the cost is difficult to support. It is expected that the formaldehyde market will be weak in the short term.

Acetic acid: the atmosphere of domestic acetic acid market is waiting. The price offered by the northwest suppliers still gives way to the profit and aggravates the bearish mentality of the North China market. However, the price offered by the suppliers in the East China and central China markets is temporarily stable and aggravates the wait-and-see mentality of the market. The market is still biased towards supply over demand, and the market is in a passive phase of decline.

Dimethyl ether: the domestic dimethyl ether Market Trading atmosphere improved, and the price went up. At present, the price of dimethyl ether keeps a small rising pace in a short term, but due to no substantial change in terminal demand, after a short replenishment, traders or continuous wait-and-see, there is little room for the price to continue to rise.

III. future forecast

From the perspective of Business Club: on the positive side, supply: some units in Southwest China have been parked and supply in the yard is tight; olefin: new olefin units put into operation in Shandong Province operate smoothly and purchase materials in stock in the near future; futures: the futures market continues to rise, boosting the spot market. On the negative side, inventory: at present, the external price is low, the port has plenty of spot goods, and the inventory is still high; demand: the traditional downstream demand is weak, the local market is not good, and the actual order is loose. The methanol analyst of the business association predicted that the domestic methanol market will continue to be consolidated in the short term.

Magnesium market trend

In November, the price of magnesium ingot went down step by step. According to the data of business agency, the average market price of magnesium ingot (9990) as of November 29 was 14133.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.53% compared with the average price of 14650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (09.01). At present, the price has been in the annual trough, which is 17.03% lower than the price at the beginning of the year..

Weak demand magnesium price moves down

In November, the demand for magnesium ingots was relatively weak as a whole, with domestic rigid demand mainly purchasing, and traders mainly waiting or short order fast in and fast out. Although there is a short-term external purchase within the month, the overall purchase volume has not changed significantly.

At present, the actual transaction price of magnesium ingot in the main production area is below 14000 yuan / ton, the price is low, the willingness of some manufacturers to hold up the price is strengthened, and the supply of low-cost goods is reduced compared with the previous period.

According to the tracking data of the business agency, on November 29, 2019, the price range of ex factory cash including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in the main domestic production areas is as follows:

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 13900-14050 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 14100-14200 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 14100-14300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 13950-14100 yuan / ton.

Forecast for future market

In the short term, it is difficult to change the declining trend of fundamentals, but with the low price, approaching the cost line, magnesium companies’ willingness to stand up for the price increases, the long short game will become increasingly fierce, and it is expected that the operation will be stable in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business association, as of December 2, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9780 yuan / ton, with a 2.73% increase on a month on month basis and a 7.74% decrease on a year-on-year basis.

II. Market analysis

Products: the BDO market in China is narrowed, the starting load of the factory is steadily increased, coupled with the recent impact of imported goods, the supply side is good and the support is limited, the downstream demand is weak, the market price is reduced, the factory’s intention to support the market continues, the offer is firm, and the market single negotiation atmosphere is general. East China and North China’s mainstream negotiations refer to 9000-9400 yuan / ton bulk water delivery, and the barrel acceptance negotiation price is 9900-10500 yuan / ton. South China’s mainstream negotiation refers to 9100-9400 yuan / ton, and barrel acceptance negotiation price is 10000-10500 yuan / ton.

In terms of the market, the BDO market in North China was in a high-level consolidation, and the factory had a strong attitude towards the market. The downstream just needed to make up the position. The buying enthusiasm was low, and the resistance to high prices was strong, and the on-site waiting atmosphere was strong. The BDO market in East China was narrowed and the on-site start-up load was slightly increased. However, the factory inventory was not under pressure, and the intention to support the market continued. The offer from the middlemen was stable, the downstream demand was general, the price depression was strong, and the on-site small single negotiation price was on the high side. The BDO market in South China was in shock and consolidation, the downstream demand was weak, the buying enthusiasm was low, the factory’s intention to keep the price was high, the price was low, and the atmosphere of large single negotiation was relatively cold.

Industry chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the northwest price this week may be relatively strong; pay attention to the external procurement of new MTO units in Luxi; Shaanxi Kaiyue and Yigao units plan to resume sales this week; Ma narrow range adjustment. Although last week partial snow, but enterprise inventory is not high, this week Inner Mongolia and other places price or relatively strong. The downstream is cautious in receiving goods, and the trader’s mentality is stable for the time being. Port inventory remained high, arbitrage between port and Shandong existed in different stages, and Ma was adjusted in a narrow range. It is expected that the methanol market in China will be mainly consolidated in a narrow range in the short term.

Calcium carbide: the market price range of calcium carbide in Ningxia is sorted out. The main factory price of the first-class calcium carbide is about 2550-2650 yuan / ton. The overall operating rate of the enterprise is acceptable, and the downstream reception level is acceptable. It is expected that the calcium carbide Market in Ningxia will not fluctuate much in the later stage.

III. future forecast

On the whole, on the positive side, the manufacturers are willing to support the market, and some of them are under maintenance. On the negative side, downstream demand is weak. BDO analysts predict that the short-term domestic BDO market is stagnant and needs to focus on the restart of Tianye and downstream buying.

I. price trend

The average price of cryolite as of November 27 was 6100 yuan / ton, down 3.68% month on month and 5.18% year-on-year, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On November 27, the cryolite commodity index was 74.09, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.80% from 101.21 (2011-10-31), the highest point in the cycle, and up 11.67% from 66.35, the lowest point on September 5, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Products: at present, the factory quotation of cryolite in Henan Province is stable, the market price is 5000-6900 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is flexible, mainly through negotiation; the price of cryolite in Shandong Province is temporarily stable, the factory quotation is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly through negotiation. By the end of July 27, the price of cryolite of Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. was 6900 yuan / ton; that of Zhengzhou Tianrui crystal technology cryolite was 6400 yuan / ton; that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. was 5000 yuan / ton. As a whole, the shipment of the enterprise was smooth and the transaction was fair.

Industrial chain: the upstream raw material sulfuric acid market operates in a differentiated way, with market ups and downs showing each other. In the heating season, the environmental protection and transportation inspection efforts in Shandong, Hebei and Henan are still the same. After the national day, the small factories in the lower reaches are under normal operation, and the weak demand situation is hard to change. At present, the supply and demand of acid city are still strong and weak, and the good support is limited. In terms of upstream fluorite, the price trend of domestic fluorite is stable temporarily. In the near future, the domestic fluorite device starts normally, the mine and flotation device in the field starts normally, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream stays at a low level in the near future. For the fluorite market, the purchase on demand is common in the fluorite field. The domestic performance of the downstream aluminum market is relatively flat, and the export performance of aluminum materials is poor, and the fundamentals are complete The body is weak.

Industry: at present, the cryolite manufacturer’s devices are in normal operation, the manufacturer’s inventory is sufficient without pressure, and the shipment is acceptable. The downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises have slightly increased the start-up, the overall inventory is good, and the manufacturer’s mentality is optimistic.

III. future forecast

According to the cryolite product analyst of the business association, at present, cryolite manufacturers mainly offer multi-dimensional and stable ex factory quotations, the devices are in normal operation, the inventory is sufficient, and the shipment is acceptable. It is expected that the market of cryolite in the later period will be weak, and the market demand will be specifically focused.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency (100ppi. Com), on January 1, 2019, the average domestic market price of natural rubber (standard I) in China was 10650 yuan / ton, and on November 25, the average market price was 12116 yuan / ton, an increase of 13.77%. 12116 yuan / ton is the highest average market price of natural rubber in 2019 so far monitored by business agency. As can be seen from the above figure, since 2019, the market of natural rubber has fluctuated from 10000 yuan / ton to 12200 yuan / ton; there have been three times of high price: 12070 yuan / ton on March 4 is the first high price, 12020 on June 11 is the second high price, and the price of 12116 yuan / ton on November 25 is the current highest price in the year; two times of low price: 10700 yuan / ton at the end of April and the beginning of May is the second high price A low price, 10260 yuan / ton at the end of July and the beginning of August is the lowest price this year. On the whole, the maximum price difference between high and low points since 2019 is about 1856 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of about 18%.

After eight years, the price of natural rubber fell by three quarters. In 2019, the market trend of “falling constantly and feebly” has gone through the first 11 and a half months. Finally, when it was over two-thirds in November, it stopped rising. As shown in the above figure, Shanghai rubber has a large amount of capital attention, and the market has been strongly pulled up. A set of “slightly visible” market has come to the industry. These days, the industry jokingly said that after waiting for more than half a year, it’s a few days to come. It can be said that the impact of economic environment and the fundamental imbalance between supply and demand make the price of natural rubber in the first 11 months of 2019 exhausted the market confidence and enthusiasm, and the current upward trend in a few days is a little relieved for the industry; the key is that in the later stage, the market generally believes that the locking of production will promote the further upward space of natural rubber market in the next days. However, the current price rise, strong wait-and-see mood at the purchasing end, the actual transaction is not very active.

II. Market analysis

In terms of supply, in domestic production areas, the local rubber cutting in Yunnan will be stopped at the end of November. At present, the amount of rubber is very small, and the cutting in Hainan will be stopped in mid December. Foreign producing areas, Thailand and Malaysia suffer from fungal diseases, which have a certain impact on their output; the latest report of the international tripartite rubber Council (ITRC) shows that in the first half of the year, 382000 hectares of rubber plantations in Indonesia are affected by fungal diseases, which is expected to lead to an expected decline of 540000 tons of rubber exports in Indonesia this year. Meanwhile, in the second half of the year, narativa, which borders Malaysia in the south of Thailand, was also attacked by fungal viruses. It is estimated that at least 50000 hectares of plantations will be affected. Combined with the damage in the three countries, ITRC believes that rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decrease by 800000 tons this year. On the whole, the gradual tightening of natural rubber production is the biggest price influencing factor for the market. Since the 20th, Shanghai rubber has risen sharply, and the spot price of natural rubber has gradually increased.

In terms of inventory, as of November 22, 2019, the natural rubber inventory in the previous period decreased by 11000 tons to 489500 tons, and warehouse receipts increased by 4300 tons to 460900 tons.

In terms of import and export, China’s customs data shows that in October 2019, China’s imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 500000 tons, down 8.4% from 546000 tons last month; from January to October, China’s total imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 5213000 tons. In Southeast Asia, Thailand’s natural rubber exports in October fell 24% year-on-year and rose 8% month on month, benefiting from the expiration of Thailand’s four-month export restriction order at the end of September, and Thailand said it would adopt policies to support rubber farmers.

In terms of demand, the data shows that in October, the production and sales of heavy trucks were 91000, 12.3% and 8.3% month on month, 25.8% and 14.1% year on year. From January to October, the production and sales of heavy trucks were 942000 and 980000, up 2% and 0.4% year on year. It is reported that the current operating rate of downstream tire enterprises is about 70%, and the influence of seasonal factors and environmental protection factors should also be taken into account in rubber purchasing demand.

III. future forecast

According to the natural rubber analysts of the business club, the output of the natural rubber market has been tightened in the near future, and the inventory has also been slightly reduced. The downstream demand is in the off-season stable period. The overall supply and demand Bureau has short-term favorable factors, and the recent trend continues to rise, but the fundamental contradiction cannot be fundamentally changed in the short term. Considering that the overall rubber price is still in a low price area, but in recent days, the price has increased by as much as 1000 yuan compared with the first and middle of November, the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the actual results are average. In the future, we should consider the possibility of short-term technical callback, as well as the influence of merger factors that China’s domestic regions stop cutting in succession and Southeast Asia’s production areas come into peak season. In the later stage, the possibility of large decline is not great, the short-term callback pressure is large, the medium-term upward space is still available, and the long-term fundamental change in demand still needs to be noted.

1. Trade name: magnesium ingot (9990)

2. Latest price (November 25, 2019): 14200 yuan / ton

The ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 14000-14100 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 14100-14300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 14200-14300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 14000-14200 yuan / ton.

3. Key points of analysis: in the near future, the price of magnesium ingot is mainly weak and stable, and the quotation of magnesium enterprises in the main production areas has not changed much. It is reported that the actual volume of trade is not large at present. Some manufacturers wait for the market changes and do not offer to the outside temporarily. The low price supply of small factories happens from time to time. At present, the amount of inquiry is not large, and it is expected to maintain stable operation in the near future.

4. Future market forecast: the overall market is weak. It is expected that the price of magnesium ingot will be weak and stable in the near future, and the actual transaction situation in the market will be paid attention to in the later stage.