According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of May 24, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 870 yuan / ton. Compared with May 1 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 763 yuan / ton), the price increased by 107 yuan / ton, or 13.97%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that in May, the domestic phosphorus ore market experienced several price adjustments, and the market focus continued to focus upward. The main reason for supporting the upward trend of phosphorus ore market is that at present, the supply of domestic phosphorus ore continues to be tight. Many large factories mainly use medium and high-end phosphorus ore for their own use, and some mining enterprises mainly send orders from core and old customers. There are basically no surplus goods for export. Most enterprises suspend quotation, there are few goods in circulation on site, and the tight supply situation has not been alleviated. Therefore, the market price has been rising repeatedly. As of May 24, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is around 880-930 yuan / ton, which needs to be discussed separately. At present, the average grade of phosphate rock in China is low. With years of mining, the average grade in China will decline in 2022, and the mining is limited. In addition, the price difference of phosphate rock at home and abroad is large, so some enterprises have a certain mentality of reluctant to sell. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of statistics, by March 2022, the domestic phosphate rock output had accumulated 2391.2 tons.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, in May, the domestic yellow phosphorus market price operated upward. At present, the operating load of yellow phosphorus enterprises is not high, and there is still no significant increase in on-site operation near the wet season. Manufacturers often send early orders, the spot is tight, and the transaction price in the overall market is further close to the high-end. Downstream enterprises are more wait-and-see, and most of them digest the early inventory. The turnover of new yellow phosphorus orders is relatively small, and the manufacturers mainly support the price, mostly stabilize, and some enterprises still have the intention to rise. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 40000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Sichuan is about 40000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 39500 yuan / ton., According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 39833.33 yuan / ton on May 23, an increase of 9.13% compared with May 1 (36500 yuan / ton).

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, the tense supply situation in the domestic phosphorus ore market still needs time to be alleviated. The phosphorus ore data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to be high and strong, mainly sorting and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners fell this week. On May 22, the average price in Shandong market was 4982.75 yuan / ton, down 3.16% from 5145.25 yuan / ton on May 16.

On May 22, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 387.55, unchanged from yesterday, down 5.17% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 479.38% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in the refinery fell, the market trading was general, the market supply increased, the refinery price decreased, the shipment was positive, the downstream carbon enterprises had a strong wait-and-see mood, and mainly purchased on demand.

Upstream: the international crude oil price fluctuates, and the market focus has gradually got rid of the fear of demand, and the focus has gradually returned to the expectation of supply tightening. The short-term market is still affected by the expected impact of EU sanctions on Russian oil exports, and oil prices are strongly supported. The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) warned that the market would see more than 7 million barrels of Russian oil and other liquid oil export losses per day. As the ability of many oil producing countries in the world to increase production rapidly is limited, the oil price may remain high in the foreseeable future, and the crude oil market price is strongly supported. Especially at present, the epidemic still plays a role, and the future demand may become the biggest constraint on the oil price. Of course, under the background of the Russian Ukrainian war, Russia’s oil supply is affected by intensive Western sanctions. The current situation is more complex. The impact of oil prices from the supply side will play a role in the long term to further offset the negative impact of the demand side.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week; The market price of metallic silicon has been lowered; The price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream rose. As of May 22, the price was 20520.00 yuan / ton. At present, the supply of petroleum coke in the market has increased, and the downstream carbon enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood and purchase more on demand.

Petroleum coke analysts of business agency believe that imported coke is concentrated in Hong Kong this week, the supply of petroleum coke market increases, refineries actively reduce prices and ship goods, and downstream carbon enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood and focus on demand. It is expected that the price of refined petroleum coke may continue to decline in the near future.

From May 13 to May 20, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene increased as a whole, from 6901 yuan / ton last weekend to 7157 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 3.71%.

On May 19, the international crude oil futures rebounded and rose significantly. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $109.89/barrel, up US $2.85 or 2.66%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $112.04/barrel, up US $2.93 or 2.70%. Oil prices rebounded after falling for two consecutive days, mainly due to the fall of the US dollar exchange rate, which raised the valuation of commodities denominated in US dollars. In addition, the epidemic situation in Asia improved and restrictions relaxed, boosting demand expectations.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

May 5, 8850.,+150

May 7, 8950.,+100

May 13, 9100.,+150

May 17, 9200.,+100

May 19, 9300.,+100

Sinopec raised the ex factory price of pure benzene. On May 19, 2022, Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene by 100 yuan / ton and implemented 9300 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical offers 8800 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 9350 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8953 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 8950 yuan / ton.

Crude oil prices rose as a whole this week, and the external price of pure benzene rose, which provided good support for the fundamentals of the industrial chain. This week, Sinopec continuously raised the production price of pure benzene, once again boosted market confidence, and local refining enterprises rose one after another. Over the weekend, market news said that an accident occurred in a factory in South Korea, resulting in the shutdown of about 380000 tons of pure benzene production capacity, and the market speculation was positive. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China decreased significantly, and the overall support of the market was strong. However, Shandong was dragged down by poor downstream demand. Although the price actively followed up this week, there was still a certain price difference with East China, and the actual transaction was weak. At present, the mainstream price of domestic pure benzene is 8750-9350 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrogenated benzene fluctuates with that of pure benzene. At present, the market price in East China has risen to about 9200-9300 yuan / ton.

The crude benzene market is the main player in the bidding price this week. In terms of supply, at present, the operation of coking enterprises is relatively normal. Although the profit of coke enterprises has declined after three rounds of coke lifting and lowering, the raw coking coal has declined, the coke enterprises as a whole are OK, the operation rate has changed little recently, and the supply of crude benzene is relatively stable. In terms of downstream demand, hydrobenzene enterprises have been boosted by profits recently, with an overall start-up of more than 70%, and the demand for crude benzene is well supported. In terms of the future market, at present, the fundamentals are good, the support is strong, and the downstream demand is OK, which boosts the overall trend of the industrial chain. It is expected that the market will maintain a stable, medium and strong trend in the near future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of the international crude oil market, the external market, the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of May 16, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton. The overall market operated stably and the supply and demand were balanced. Compared with the same period last week, the price had no significant change. The overall market was stable, the trend was stable and the supply and demand were balanced. At present, the supply side of the market is normal and the purchase is just needed.

The market price of white carbon black has a stable trend. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed. The overall market supply and demand is balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics is smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere is flat,

Upstream hydrochloric acid: as of May 13, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid was temporarily stable, and the average price was 300 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 32.35% year-on-year. On May 12, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 78.95, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.74% from the highest point of 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 339.10% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

Ranking of chemical index: on May 15, the chemical index was 1194 points, the same as yesterday, down 14.71% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 99.67% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that the trend of rubber grade white carbon black is stable in the short term, and the price range is about 6000-6500 yuan / ton. (if you want to know more about the market dynamics of the industrial chain, you are welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business club, obtain commodity information and master commodity prices).

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of May 18, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 9933 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on May 15 (the average reference price of n-butanol was 10000 yuan / ton), the price was reduced by 67 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.67%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that this week, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fluctuated slightly. At the beginning of the week, the high-end price on the floor was generally traded. Some n-butanol factories in Shandong sold goods at a profit. The ex factory price of n-butanol was slightly reduced by about 100-200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of n-butanol was about 9800-10000 yuan / ton. Then, in the middle of the week, the low-end price on the floor was well traded, and the n-butanol market rebounded slightly. On the 18th, the n-butanol market in Shandong increased steadily and slightly, with an increase range of around 100 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 9900-10000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of n-butanol in South China was still above 10000 yuan, with a reference of around 10300-10400 yuan / ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol is mild, and the downstream inquiry atmosphere is good.

In terms of upstream propylene, since May, the domestic propylene market in Shandong has been rising as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of propylene was 8560.60 yuan / ton on May 17, up 1.74% compared with May 1 (8414.60).

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream demand of n-butanol is mostly purchased on demand, and the atmosphere of supply and demand is normal. The n-butanol Data Engineer of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes of supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6687 yuan / ton on May 9, and the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 6687 yuan / ton on May 16. The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable this week. The terminal demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere on the site is cold. This week, the operating rate of chlorinated paraffin enterprises was about 50%, and some enterprises stopped production for maintenance. The price of raw materials fluctuated slightly, and the cost support was acceptable. As of May 16, the ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui is about 7000 yuan / ton, that in Shaanxi is about 6800 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China is about 6500 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is about 6250 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fell first and then rose this week, and the shipment was stable. The market trading atmosphere is acceptable, and the downstream just needs to purchase. In terms of raw liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine rose and fell this week, fluctuated slightly in the range, and mainly operated inward and downward in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The chlorinated paraffin analyst of business society believes that the overall market of chlorinated paraffin is stable and the cost side support is weakened. The downstream demand is weak, the follow-up is insufficient, and the operating rate of chlorinated paraffin is reduced. In the case of weak supply and demand, the chlorinated paraffin market is expected to be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term.

Zinc prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fell sharply this week, and the zinc market fell back. As of May 16, the price of zinc was 25530 yuan / ton, down 2.94% from 26304 yuan / ton on May 9 at the beginning of the week; Compared with May 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of zinc was 27742 yuan / ton, down 7.97%. The supply of zinc market recovered and the demand was poor, and the zinc price fluctuated and fell this week.

Zinc ingot inventory in LME market continued to decline

Time, LME zinc inventory, Increase or decrease, Proportion of change, Register warehouse receipt, cancelled warrants

April 29, 95350., – 925., – 0.96., 33700., sixty-one thousand six hundred and fifty

May 3, 95350., 0 0 34475., sixty thousand eight hundred and seventy-five

May 4, 94075., – 1275., – 1.34., 34475., fifty-nine thousand and six hundred

May 5, 93175., – 900., – 0.96., 34475., fifty-eight thousand and seven hundred

May 6, 94375., 1200., 1.29., thirty-six thousand and fifty ., fifty-eight thousand three hundred and twenty-five

May 9, 92575., – 1800., – 1.91., 36050., fifty-six thousand five hundred and twenty-five

May 10, 89300., – 3275., – 3.54., 36125., fifty-three thousand one hundred and seventy-five

May 11, 88475., – 825., – 0.92., 36625., fifty-one thousand eight hundred and fifty

May 12, 86375., – 2100., – 2.37., 36000., fifty thousand three hundred and seventy-five

May 13, 86550., 175., 0.2., 37900., forty-eight thousand six hundred and fifty

May 16, 86225., – 325., – 0.38., 38325., forty-seven thousand and nine hundred

From the zinc ingot inventory data of LME market, it can be seen that the zinc ingot inventory in LME market stopped falling and stabilized this week, the number of registered warehouse receipts increased significantly, and the number of cancelled warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, the rising power of zinc price is weakened, and the downward pressure is great.

Zinc supply increases

In April, the average daily output and total monthly output of zinc sheet of Yunnan Copper Zinc Industry Company reached 303444 tons and 9406764 tons respectively, a new high in six years. The supply of zinc increased and the demand recovered slowly. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate and fall in the future.

Future forecast

In terms of zinc ingot supply, analysts believe that the zinc market is expected to recover this week, but the supply of zinc ingots is lower than that of the global zinc market, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to recover this week. However, analysts believe that the zinc market is expected to recover, while the supply of zinc ingots is expected to recover this week. In the future, the supply growth and demand of zinc market were lower than expected, and the zinc price stabilized after falling.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from May 6 to 13, the rise of domestic asphalt Market slowed down, and the average spot price rose from 4377 yuan / ton to 4421 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price rose by 0.99%, 11.44% month on month and 36.73% year-on-year.

Recent asphalt price trend chart of business agency:

Comparison chart of asphalt price trend of business society from 2018 to 2022:

This week, the domestic asphalt market price stabilized after rising. In terms of regions, the price increase in South China is the most obvious, mainly driven by the shortage of resources in the region and the rise of main prices; The second is East China, mainly due to Sinopec’s price increase of 100-140 yuan / ton during the week; Then, in the northwest, northeast and southwest, mainly the quotation of some brands rose, and the transaction range rose slightly; The price increase in Shandong and North China was relatively small, mainly affected by the wide range of crude oil shocks, and some low-cost goods sources still existed, so the overall increase was limited.

As of May 13, the factory quotation summary of major asphalt manufacturers in Shandong:

Enterprise, Device, Price

HSBC petrochemical, A 2.3 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit was started, with a daily output of 2000 tons, 5030 yuan / ton

Jincheng petrochemical, 1500 tons per day ., 4250 yuan / ton

Kelida., There are two sets of atmospheric and vacuum distillation, one set of 3.2 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation and one set of 1.2 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation ., 4100 yuan / ton

Dongming Petrochemical, A set of 3 million T / a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is currently converted to residue, and the inventory will not be shipped temporarily, with a daily output of 2500-3000 tons, 5050 yuan / ton

Shenchi chemical ., Normal shipment, 4650 yuan / ton

Comparison chart of crude oil and asphalt price trend of business society:

Price rise and fall chart of asphalt industry chain of business society:

Price rise and fall list of asphalt industrial chain products of business society:

List of price rise and fall of asphalt products of business society:

In the future, heavy rainfall in South China will affect the construction of downstream terminals, increase the scope of rainfall across the country, and the demand may be hindered. Asphalt analysts of business society expect that the domestic asphalt market is dominated by high-level consolidation.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline this week. On May 12, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 451000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.17% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 461000 yuan / ton on May 8). On May 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 468000 yuan / ton, down 1.68% from the average price at the beginning of the week (the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 476000 yuan / ton on May 8).

According to the observation of market changes, the price of lithium carbonate continued to decline this week. In terms of supply, the market supply rose steadily. With the gradual decline of the impact of epidemic control on production, some new production capacity is still being released, and the output of salt lake continues to rise. In terms of demand, affected by the epidemic, the commencement of downstream enterprises is still poor, and the market demand is still in a wait-and-see state. However, at the beginning of the month, some enterprises still have the willingness to purchase. There are more market inquiries, but relatively few transactions.

The downstream lithium hydroxide Market is stable. Recently, the upstream spodumene price is strong, and there is some support on the cost side. However, the price of lithium carbonate is still reduced, so the market wait-and-see mentality is strengthened. The foreign lithium hydroxide market price is relatively strong, the domestic downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the negotiation focus of lithium hydroxide market runs smoothly.

The price of lithium iron phosphate in the downstream remained stable, the supply of manufacturers was tight, the focus of negotiation was general, the overall market negotiation atmosphere was acceptable, the focus of the upstream market was high, the rise slowed down, the cost pressure of lithium iron phosphate market remained, and the overall market was under pressure.

Lithium carbonate analysts of business society believe that at present, with the gradual decline of the impact of epidemic control on production, the total supply of the industry is up month on month. The start-up of the downstream market is also gradually recovering, the market procurement atmosphere may be improved, the market trading atmosphere will be improved, and the short-term lithium carbonate price is expected to continue to fluctuate.

This week, the spot tin market price (4.29-5.7) fell as a whole. The average price in the domestic market was 336130 yuan / ton last weekend and 335130 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.30% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As can be seen from the above figure, the market price of tin ingots has continued to decline recently.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, there are six commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 18th week of 2022 (5.2-5.6). The top three commodities are magnesium (2.29%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (1.77%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (1.45%). A total of 9 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 1 kind of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were nickel (- 5.36%), silver (- 2.74%) and aluminum (- 2.48%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.36%.

Situation of tin futures market on May 6, 2022

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory (ton)

Hu Xi, 333000 yuan / ton- 2350 yuan / ton, one thousand seven hundred and forty

London tin, US $39450 / ton- $1150 / ton, three thousand one hundred and twenty

Futures market: this week coincides with the May Day holiday, with few actual opening days. The overall trend of Shanghai tin this week is weak and volatile, the US dollar index continues to rise, the basic metals are generally under pressure, most of the metal markets are falling, and the futures market is under pressure. Inventory data show that LME London Metal Tin inventory fluctuated last week, and the overall inventory rebounded compared with the previous period. At present, it is the highest inventory in nearly half a year. Shanghai tin inventory fell slightly to 1740 tons this week. As of this week, it has declined for three consecutive weeks, which is the low level of new inventory in recent March.

In terms of the spot market, the trend of the futures market continued to follow closely this week, mainly downward, with a weekly decline of 0.30%. From a fundamental point of view, affected by the improvement of the import situation at the mine end, at present, the operation of domestic refineries is basically normal, the domestic output has rebounded to a certain extent, which is significantly improved compared with the early stage, and most market people are optimistic about the future market. In the downstream, the production in the Yangtze River Delta is still weak recently, the demand for tin ingots is suspended, and the local tin ingot inventory has picked up to a certain extent, reflecting that most manufacturers currently consume the pre holiday stock, and their purchasing enthusiasm is low recently. The recent supply increase and downstream demand are suspended. At present, the main factor supporting tin ingots is low inventory. It is expected that the tin price will remain weak and volatile in the future.