This week, the domestic propylene market stabilized first and then rose, while Shandong propane market rose slightly at the weekend. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 5675 yuan/ton on October 31, and 570 yuan/ton on November 4. The weekly increase was 0.96%, down 10.41% compared with the same period last year.

As of November 4, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region., November 4

In South China, 5550-5700 yuan/ton

North China, 5500-5750 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5650-5780 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5700-5800 yuan/ton

This week (10.31-11.4), the domestic propane market was weak as a whole, and Shandong propane market rose slightly. In November, the CP price rose, boosting the confidence of the industry. On the market trading was active, with more inquiries, and the trading atmosphere improved. However, due to the escalation of domestic security incidents in some regions, the transportation is limited and the goods are not transported smoothly. In terms of cost, crude oil rose slightly in shock, and liquefied gas declined in general weakness, with average cost support.

Saudi Aramco introduced CP in November 2022, and propane was 610 dollars/ton, up 20 dollars/ton from last month; Butane is 610 dollars/ton, up 50 dollars/ton from last month.

Overall, the strong performance of the international market further boosted the domestic market, and the demand side is expected to improve. It is expected that the propane market may rise in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business community, in October, the domestic adipic acid market went out of the trend of surging and falling. After the festival, affected by the rising market of suppliers and tight supply, adipic acid rose sharply, with a weekly increase of more than 12% (see the weekly K-bar chart). After the middle of the month, due to the lack of good support on the demand side, the price fell back, erasing some of the previous gains. At the end of the month, the market price range of adipic acid was 10400-10600 yuan/ton. Adipic acid rose 5.93% in the whole month.

Supply side

In terms of market supply, in the first ten days of the year, suppliers were generally in the market, and the operating rate of enterprises was generally low, maintained at 50%, a slight drop compared with that before the festival. The pressure on manufacturers’ inventory eased, supporting prices to rise. Since the middle of the year, the increase in the operating rate of enterprises has brought more supply. Supply is excessive from tight to loose.

Cost side

On the cost side, it can be seen from the figure above that adipic acid is highly related to the trend of upstream pure benzene. Pure benzene has gone out of the market that rose first and then fell. During the 11th National Day, international crude oil prices rose sharply, boosting downstream chemicals. The price of pure benzene also rose driven by crude oil. The supply of pure benzene in East China is tight, and spot prices are generally higher. In the middle and late ten days, the price of pure benzene fell, which had a significant impact on adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business community, pure benzene fell by 10% from October 11 to the end of the month.

Demand side

The downstream demand of adipic acid has not changed much, and the demand remains rigid. According to the monitoring of the business community, the downstream PA66 rose by 2.02% in October, with a significantly slower pace of growth (up to 11.2% in September). The downstream demand did not bring much benefit to adipic acid. The lack of demand increment and the lack of cooperation from the downstream purchasing end foreshadowed the high level of adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business community, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was 25250 yuan/ton at the end of October.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that adipic acid is stronger than the upstream and downstream. The main raw material, pure benzene, has dropped significantly, easing the pressure on the cost side of adipic acid, and the manufacturer’s profits have been improved, but at the same time, some downstream profits have been squeezed.

Future outlook

The business agency believes that at the end of the month, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and the settlement of the big factory is imminent. In addition, the decline of pure benzene has entered a certain platform period, and the power of decline is not strong in the later period, mainly due to the positive impact of the supply side. At present, there is too much equipment maintenance, and it is difficult to resume and improve the load of many devices in the later period. But it is difficult to improve the demand too much. To sum up, adipic acid may maintain a weak shock, and the game between supply and demand will lead to a stalemate in the market.

Zinc price fell nearly 800 yuan/ton on the 31st

According to the data of the business agency, the economy was weak, the metal plate fell generally, and the zinc price led the decline on the 31st. As of October 31, the zinc price was 23730 yuan/ton, down nearly 768 yuan/ton, or 3.13%, from 24498 yuan/ton on the previous trading day; Shanghai futures zinc closed at 22610 yuan/ton, down 5.4%. In the near future, the current price of nonferrous metal plate continued to fall, and the current zinc price fell sharply. On the 31st, the zinc price led the metal plate down.

Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index in October

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) in October was 49.2%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month. In October, affected by the frequent outbreaks of domestic epidemics, China’s purchasing manager index fell back, the PMI of energy intensive industries fell to the contraction range, and the demand for nonferrous metals contracted significantly. The demand of zinc market shrinks, and the downward pressure of zinc price increases.

Increase in domestic zinc concentrate processing cost

As of October 31, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 4500-5000 yuan/ton, 500-800 yuan/ton higher than that in September, and 1000 yuan/ton higher than that in June, 3500-3800 yuan/ton. The zinc concentrate processing fee continued to rise significantly, and the smelting profits became more and more rich. The zinc smelting enterprises’ enthusiasm to start the business rose, and the supply of zinc was expected to increase. Recently, the epidemic situation around the country has increased, and the demand was slightly affected. Weak demand and supply warmed up, and the downward pressure on zinc price increased.

Future market forecast

According to the data analysts of the business community; Macroeconomic weakness and contraction, non-ferrous metal plate prices fell; The processing cost of zinc concentrate rises sharply, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase, the demand for zinc ingots remains weak as the supply increases, and the downward pressure on zinc price increases; Although the sharp drop in European natural gas prices has limited impact on the supply of zinc smelting in Europe, the cost of European zinc smelting enterprises has declined, and the zinc price has a certain negative effect; In the future, the recent epidemic situation has worsened, the processing cost of zinc concentrate has continued to rise, and the supply of zinc market has increased and the demand is weak. However, in November, the European Glencore zinc smelting production is expected to stop production for maintenance, and the zinc market is still supported by growth. It is expected that the zinc price will be adjusted in a wide range in the short term.

In October, the mainstream factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China rose slightly. The price of calcium carbide rose from 3700.00 yuan/ton on October 1 to 3950.00 yuan/ton on October 28, an increase of 6.76%. The price at the end of the month fell by 50.83% year-on-year.

On October 27, the carbide commodity index was 103.93, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.03% from the peak of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 87.30% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the supply side, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China rose slightly this month.

From the weekly K column chart of calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide rose slightly in October, with the highest weekly increase of 4.05%.

Cost end: the price of charcoal fell first and then rose

The overall price of carbon dioxide in the upstream of carbide rose slightly this month. In October, the average market price of domestic semi coke feedstock rose from 1703.33 yuan/ton on October 1 to 1778.33 yuan/ton on October 27, an increase of 4.4%. Due to the shortage of coal and winter storage, the price of lump coal continues to rise, the cost of coke enterprises is under pressure, the price of upstream coke continues to rise, and the cost support of calcium carbide increases.

Demand side: PVC market price drops

The PVC market price in the downstream of calcium carbide fell sharply this month. The PVC market price in this month fell from 6265.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6042.86 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.56%. The price at the end of the month fell 42.45% year-on-year. The ex factory price of 1,4 butanediol in this month was high and fluctuated narrowly, with the ex factory price of about 14600.00 yuan/ton. On the whole, the downstream market of calcium carbide rose and fell with each other this month, and the downstream demand was average.

In the future: in the first ten days of November, the carbide market may fall slightly, mainly finishing. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has risen slightly recently, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. However, the downstream 1,4 butanediol and PVC markets declined slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that carbide prices in northwest China will fall slightly in the first ten days of November, mainly finishing.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic caprolactam liquid market on October 1 was 11450 yuan/ton. On October 31, the average price of domestic caprolactam liquid market was 12466 yuan/ton. The domestic caprolactam price rose 8.88% this month.

2、 Market analysis

Domestic caprolactam prices rose this month. After the National Day holiday, the market price of caprolactam continued to rise. The price of raw material pure benzene rose, the cost side of caprolactam was well supported, the market supply was tight, downstream procurement was active, and the manufacturer operated at a high price. The caprolactam market was consolidated and operated well in the second half of October. The price of raw material pure benzene fell, the cost end support of caprolactam weakened, the market supply remained tight, and downstream procurement was based on demand, mainly on wait-and-see. The operating rate of downstream polymerization plants increased, and the demand for caprolactam was stable. As of October 31, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 12800 yuan/ton, which was withdrawn by acceptance.

Raw material pure benzene rose after the festival and fell continuously this month.. Due to the wide rise of crude oil during the festival, the price of pure benzene in Asia has risen, which is good for boosting the domestic pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene has risen. However, with the increase of downstream maintenance, the overall demand side has weakened. In addition, the market of styrene, the main product, has dropped continuously, and the focus of market negotiation has weakened. The downward channel has been opened in the middle of the month. The pure benzene inventory of East China ports rose again in the late ten days, and a large number of ships are expected to arrive at the port in the later period. The industry is bearish on the future market, and the decline at the end of the month expanded. In this month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was raised twice and lowered four times, down 400 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton in Hebei and Shandong).

The domestic market of downstream PA6 fluctuated this month, and the spot prices of various brands rose in a narrow range. As of October 31, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprise for China Bond 2.75-2.85 was about 14233.33 yuan/ton. This month, the cost support of PA6 was strong, and the distal upstream gradually weakened. In terms of demand, the industry is relatively lagging behind. At the same time, the industry is worried about the negative impact of PA6 capacity expansion and lagging downstream demand, and the market has a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere. At present, the market is long and short, and it is expected that PA6 will operate in a narrow range in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

The caprolactam analysts of the business community believe that the on-site supply of caprolactam is tight at present, and the supply side is well supported. Raw material pure benzene continued to fall, with weak cost support. The downstream fluctuated slightly, the demand for caprolactam was stable, and the wait-and-see mood was obvious. It is expected that the short-term caprolactam market will be dominated by stable consolidation and operation.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 28, the average price of domestic power premium lithium iron phosphate was 165000.00 yuan/ton. In October, the market price of lithium iron phosphate rose by 6.45%, slightly higher than the price in the same period last month. The price of lithium iron phosphate is stable and strong. At present, the focus of the market negotiation is stable, the operating rate is normal, the downstream just needs to purchase, the main contract customers, and the number of new orders is limited, In the short term, the price is mainly stable.

In the first ten days of October, the price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, was 160000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate was mainly stable, and the price range remained at 155000-160000 yuan/ton. The upstream lithium carbonate: as of October 13, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 521000 yuan/ton, up 3.95% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (October 9, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 501200 yuan/ton). Stable operation is the main factor. The industrial grade is 505000 yuan/ton, and the battery grade is 530000 yuan/ton. With the arrival of the fourth quarter, there is a strong bullish atmosphere. In late October, as of October 24, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a superior power product, is 160000 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate remains stable, and the mainstream price range is 155000-160000 yuan/ton.

Chemical index: On October 27, the chemical index was 966 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 31.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 61.54% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the analysts of LiFePO4 from the business community, the LiFePO4 market is expected to operate stably in November.

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, as of October 27, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9766.67 yuan/ton, down 13.31% from October 1, and 51.33% from the same period last year.

The market price of epichlorohydrin fell in October. From the perspective of supply and demand: after the festival, the factory is active in shipping, but the downstream mainly consumes the raw materials in stock, and only small orders are needed to replenish at low prices. The shipment of the cargo holders is not smooth, the operators are under pressure, and the price of epichlorohydrin is falling. The demand side is still poor in the middle and late days. Some units in Hebei, Shandong and Zhejiang are in shutdown state, but the downstream purchase intention is not high, the buying is cautious, the cargo holders are under pressure, and the weak demand continues to drag down the price.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream, the reference price of upstream propylene was 7426.60 on October 26, down 2.55% compared with October 1 (7620.60). The cost of propylene method was not supported enough this month. The market of raw glycerin fell this month, but the cost pressure of glycerin method remained. The reference price of downstream epoxy resin was 18433.33 on October 26, down 10.23% compared with October 1 (20533.33), which was insufficient to support the epichlorohydrin market.

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the current cost support is insufficient, the demand is weak, and the factory is mainly active in shipping. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 26, 2022, the domestic butanone market price reference was 8800 yuan/ton, and compared with the price on October 1 (the butanone reference price was 9900 yuan/ton), the average price decreased by 1100 yuan/ton, or 11.11%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since October (10.1-10.26), the domestic butanone market as a whole has shown a weak and declining trend. The factors that influence the continuous downward exploration of the center of gravity of butanone mainly come from the following three aspects:

1、 From the perspective of demand, after the National Day holiday, the downstream demand of butanone was cautious, and the pace of shipment was slow. Some butanone factories had accumulated stock. Insufficient demand led to pressure on the overall inventory on the site, and most of the operators began to yield profits for shipment.

2、 In terms of cost, in October, the C4 market after the raw material ether ran in a narrow range, and the cost support given to butanone was also average. Therefore, it was difficult for the cost side to support the firm offer of butanone.

3、 In terms of supply, in October, the overall operating rate of domestic butanone units remained at about 60%. This month, the operating rate was not adjusted much. However, due to the constraints of demand, the supply side still had shipping pressure, and the market focus continued to decline.

As of October 26, the domestic market price of butanone was around 8200-9200 yuan/ton, with a large difference between high and low prices on the market, with a drop of about 800-1500 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month.

In terms of upstream, since October, the domestic market of liquefied gas for civil use in Shandong has been operating in an overall shock. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of liquefied gas was 5424 yuan/ton on October 25, a decrease of 0.59% compared with October 1 (the reference price of liquefied gas was 5456 yuan/ton).

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, the trading atmosphere in the butanone market is still weak, the overall market remains weak, and the downstream demand side is generally boosted. The butanone data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the butanone market is weak and mainly operates, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific interest consumption changes on the supply and demand side.

The market situation of nitrile rubber continued to be weak. The price of nitrile rubber fell slightly this week (10.14-10.21). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 21, the price of nitrile rubber was 16300 yuan/ton, down 2.10% from 16650 yuan/ton last Friday. After the festival, the ex factory price of nitrile rubber enterprises has been lowered successively. As of the 21st day, the listing price of Lanzhou Petrochemical N41 nitrile rubber was 15400 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of Shunze 3355 nitrile rubber was 16000 yuan/ton, according to the monitoring of the business community; Sinopec Sibul nitrile rubber 3365 factory report 15800 yuan/ton.

Since October, the price of raw material butadiene has declined, the price of acrylonitrile has risen, and the cost of butadiene acrylonitrile rubber has differentiated. In addition, the downstream demand is weak, the merchants ship at low prices, and the market price of nitrile rubber is gradually lower.

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 21, the price of butadiene was 7608 yuan/ton, 1.95% lower than that of 7760 yuan/ton last Friday; As of October 21, the price of acrylonitrile was 10790 yuan/ton, up 5.27% from 10250 on Friday.

The domestic nitrile rubber plants are basically operating normally, with the industry starting at around 80%, and the supply of nitrile rubber in the market is loose.

After the festival, the construction of nitrile rubber downstream is mainly stable. There are few new orders for nitrile enterprises, the market turnover is light, and the demand for nitrile rubber is insufficient.

Future forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that the cost of NBR is differentiated at present, and the demand support is insufficient. It is expected that the NBR market will be weak in the short term.

This week (10.1-10.21) metal silicon was consolidated and operated, and the poor logistics and transportation led to a weak trading and investment atmosphere in the market. However, there was cost support, and it was difficult for raw materials to enter the market. At the same time, the futures market was imminent, and the silicon factory’s quotation remained firm. As of October 21, according to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the domestic market was 21690 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

On the 21st, the price of 441 # silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Huangpu Port is 21600-21800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21700 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Tianjin Port is 21600-21800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 21700 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Kunming is 21300-21500 yuan/ton, with an average of 21400 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Sichuan is 21300-21400 yuan/ton, 21350 yuan/ton on average; The price range of # 441 silicon metal in Shanghai is 22200-22400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 22300 yuan/ton.

Factors Affecting the Price Fluctuation of Silicon Metal

Supply side: There is no obvious change in the supply disturbance factors this week. Under the influence of a new round of power rationing policy, Yunnan has significantly limited its production, and it is still possible to further limit its production as the dry season approaches. The epidemic situation in Xinjiang is repeated, the transportation is blocked, and the supply continues to be disturbed. It is understood that there are 399 sets of metal silicon being fired at present. As of October 20, the rate of metal silicon being fired is about 56.83%, 135 sets in Xinjiang, 71 sets in Sichuan and 84 sets in Yunnan.

Demand side: the price of aluminum alloy is stable, the mainstream quotation is 18700 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy is the same as last week. Due to repeated outbreaks in some regions, the recovery of aluminum alloy starting is limited due to economic downturn, and there is still a stock of metal silicon in the aluminum plant, and a small amount of metal silicon is still needed to maintain the main procurement; The price of organic silicon DMC is temporarily stable, and the mainstream quotation is 17580 yuan/ton. The supply and demand transmission of organic silicon in the field is deadlocked, and each monomer factory suffers from serious losses, mainly purchasing metal silicon.

The mainstream price of polysilicon is 297666.66 yuan/ton, the price is stable, the unit operation rate of silicon material enterprises is normal, and the output of domestic large factories has increased significantly this month. The production of new capacity continues to climb, the demand continues to be strong, and the demand for metal silicon continues to increase.

Future market forecast

There is no significant change in the supply and demand expectation. The supply side of the epidemic in Xinjiang and the production reduction and restriction in the southwest continue to be disturbed, and the demand side has no significant improvement. Although the demand for polysilicon remains strong, the overall demand expectation is consistent with the market, and the price of metal silicon is expected to be stable in the short term.