Futures:
Figure 1: Trend chart of main contracts of natural rubber futures in late February, 2023
In late February, the rubber futures continued to fluctuate slightly, generally from top to bottom, and currently remain at around 12450-12500.
goods in stock:
Figure 2: Trend chart of natural rubber spot commodity index this month
According to the data monitoring of the Business News Agency, the natural rubber commodity index on February 27 was 35.64, down 0.18 points from yesterday, down 64.36% from the highest point of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 30.65% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)
Figure 3: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market in the last three months of 2022
Commodity market: The monitoring of the business agency showed that the spot market of domestic standard rubber in the East China market of natural rubber continued to fluctuate slightly in late February 2023: the main market price was 12020 yuan/ton on February 21, and rose to 12120 yuan/ton on February 23, and then continued to fluctuate, first fell and then stabilized, and ended this month at 12020 yuan/ton on February 28. The highest point of the stage price was 12120 yuan/ton on February 23, and the lowest point was 11996 yuan/ton on February 22. The maximum amplitude so far this month is only 0.2%.
Industrial factors: At present, the global natural rubber production has been at the annual low point: in foreign production areas, the continuous rainfall in southern Thailand and most parts of Malaysia in the last two months of the year has reduced the production of new rubber, and the main production areas in Vietnam have been in the cutting period this month, and the cutting and production reduction in northeastern and southern Thailand have been stopped; Malaysia and northern Indonesia have entered a period of production reduction, and the global natural latex production has reached an annual low in March. In late February, the demand of China’s downstream latex products enterprises began to recover. First of all, the consumption of stocks prepared before the year began to dominate. The purchase of new orders was small, the market turnover was weak, and the market rebounded from the increase after the Spring Festival. It is expected that the sharp adjustment of the market will be possible when the annual supply is at the lowest level next month and the inventory of product manufacturers is exhausted.
macroscopic:
Figure 4: Trend of the mainstream international crude oil prices in the last three months of 2022
In late February, the crude oil market fell first, then rose and then fell. On the 21st, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.87/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.07/barrel; On the 27th, international crude oil futures closed lower: the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 75.68 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 82.04 dollars/barrel. The global economic recession is expected to be superimposed with high oil inventories in the United States to limit the rise of oil prices.
Industry hotspot:
1. According to the recent report of ANRPC, the global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2.2% to 14.672 million tons in 2023; In 2023, global natural rubber consumption is expected to decrease by 0.1% to 14.738 million tons. The decline in consumption is mainly due to the uncertainty of the global economy in 2023.
2. According to Yunnan Daily, in order to promote the high-quality development of the natural rubber industry in Yunnan Province, the Office of the Leading Group for Rural Work of the Yunnan Provincial Party Committee, the Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the Provincial Bureau of Agricultural Reclamation recently jointly issued the “Implementation Plan for the Three-year Action of the Natural Rubber Industry in Yunnan Province (2022-2024)”, which made it clear that by 2024, the planting area and output of natural rubber in Yunnan Province will be stabilized at 8.5 million mu and 460000 tons respectively, The output value of the whole industrial chain increased from 18 billion yuan in 2021 to 25 billion yuan.
3. According to foreign media reports on February 20, an insider said that the increase in rubber production in Bangladesh is helping local tire manufacturers reduce their dependence on imported rubber. It is reported that, according to the data of the Bangladesh Rubber Bureau and producers, 67939 tons of raw rubber were produced in 2022 due to the increase in planting area, an increase of 58% from 43000 tons in 2021.
4. According to the data, Vietnam exported 41000 tons of natural rubber in January 2023, down 37% year on year. In terms of various varieties, the export of standard rubber was 23000 tons, down 41% year on year; Tobacco adhesive decreased by 67% year-on-year; Latex decreased by 25% year on year. The export of natural rubber to China was 13000 tons, up 30% year on year. Vietnam exported 94000 tons of mixed rubber to China in January, down 27% year on year. Overall, Vietnam exported 135000 tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber in January, down 30% year on year; Exports to China totaled 107000 tons, down 23% year on year.
Figure 5: Comparison of annual spot market trend of natural rubber in 2021-2023
Aftermarket forecast: At present, the global supply is at its lowest point in the recent year. The purchase demand of downstream product enterprises is gradually recovering and is in the pre-year inventory consumption stage. At present, the purchase order of Tianjiao is scarce, the market is weak, and the price of natural latex is declining. It is expected that the supply trough next month coincides with the increase of factory demand and the depletion of inventories, and the natural rubber market will usher in a big adjustment period.
