Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, nickel prices fluctuated downward again this week (8.10-8.16) and continued to weaken. As of the weekend, spot nickel was reported at 129683 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1.51% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.35%.

Macroscopically, the US PPI in July increased by 2.2% year-on-year, with an estimated 2.3%, compared to the previous value of 2.6%. The consumer survey report released by the Federal Reserve shows that US consumers’ one-year and five-year inflation expectations remained stable in July, while three-year inflation expectations fell sharply, reaching the lowest 2.3% since records began in 2013. Household spending expectations were weak, and unemployment expectations unexpectedly improved. The data released on Tuesday showed that the decline in bank loans in China in July exceeded expectations, reaching the lowest level in nearly 15 years, raising concerns about the demand outlook. The market expects the trend of basic metals to be suppressed as a result.

Supply side: Global pure nickel production continues to increase. It is reported that in July 2024, the national refined nickel production reached 28900 tons, a month on month increase of 8.2% and a year-on-year increase of 33.87%. The expectation of nickel oversupply remains unchanged, and global inventories continue to accumulate. As of August 16th, LME nickel inventory was 114060 tons, with a further increase of 1656 tons compared to the previous week; Shanghai nickel inventory is 18111 tons, an increase of 1612 tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand, alloys are the main downstream of pure nickel, and there is good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Due to price fluctuations and abundant supply of goods, enterprises purchase at low prices. Stainless steel prices are running at a low level. On August 16th, the benchmark price of stainless steel plates in Shengyi Society was 12707.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% from the beginning of the month. Stainless steel factories have high expectations for the peak season of gold, silver, and silver, but the pressure of supply and demand restricts the upward space of prices.

Market forecast: Under the current macro background, demand remains weak, and there is still oversupply and high inventory pressure in the nickel market. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on August 14th was 906 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.45% from the average price of 920 yuan/ton on August 7th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices fluctuated and fell. The operating rate of coking enterprises is relatively low, while the operating rate of internal level enterprises is relatively high. The enthusiasm for market procurement has weakened, and on-site trading is weak. At present, the granule factory has a large inventory and the shipping market is not good. The export market has not improved, and the confidence of exporters has been dampened. As of August 14th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 870 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 880-950 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the ammonium sulfate market has been fluctuating and declining recently. At present, the domestic and international market conditions are not good, and the trading atmosphere in the market is quiet. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will continue to operate weakly and consolidate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market fluctuated and fell this week. On Monday, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8090 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 7796 yuan/ton. The price dropped by 1.94% during the week.

This week, the domestic isopropanol market fluctuated and fell. Overall, there has been a shift in market sentiment this week, with price flexibility adjustments within the market. Some factories have foreign trade orders to execute, and there is no obvious inventory pressure in the factories. The manufacturer’s quotation has been raised. Some holders have tight inventory, unable to sell at low prices, and offer at high prices. The prices of some holders who mainly focus on profit taking are still mostly maintained. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 7600-7700 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol market prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8100-8200 yuan/ton, while prices in the South China region are around 8200-8500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone has fallen this week. The average price of acetone on Monday was 6962.5 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 6802.5 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.3%. At present, the inventory at the port continues to accumulate, and the overall trading atmosphere downstream is not high.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market has experienced a decline this week. On Monday, the average domestic propylene price was 7135.75 yuan/ton, and on Friday, the average price was 7000.75 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.89%. At present, enterprises are actively shipping, offering discounts and making downstream purchases at low prices according to demand. It is expected that the market will be more cautious in the short term, and market prices will be weak.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price has fluctuated and fallen this week, and there is a lack of clear guidance on the market news. From the supply side, the manufacturer’s operating rate is not high, and there are foreign trade orders being executed, so the factory does not have obvious inventory pressure. From a demand perspective, downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, with a focus on essential needs. There is still a lack of substantial positive guidance in the market, and it is expected that the short-term isopropanol market will mainly fluctuate, with attention paid to changes in the news.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market in July first fell and then rose, with a slight overall decline. From July 1st to 31st, the domestic market price of aggregated MDI increased from 17683 yuan/ton to 17616 yuan/ton, with a monthly price drop of 0.38% and a year-on-year price increase of 7.2%.

In the first half of the month, the domestic aggregated MDI market continued to decline due to weak downstream demand and sluggish upstream sales, resulting in a weak MDI market.

In mid month, with the decline in MDI prices, downstream procurement entered the market at a low price, and under the game of supply and demand, prices entered the stage of maintaining stability and consolidation.

In the latter half of the month, there were frequent reports of upstream maintenance, tightening supply, and prices began to rebound at the bottom. With prices rising, trading volume in the market followed slowly. At the same time, the cost of aniline and pure benzene both experienced varying degrees of decline, with clear bearish constraints. The market stopped rising and stabilized, and the market remained stable until the end of the month.

On the supply side, the Wanhua plant in Yantai will be shut down for maintenance on July 16th, lasting about 45 days. On July 26th, the Dongcao Rui’an plant was shut down for maintenance, which lasted for about 35 days. Some devices maintained low load operation, which effectively boosted the MDI market in late July.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market has been declining. As of July 31st, the benchmark price of pure benzene in Shengyi Society is 8408 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: Currently, the domestic aniline market is accelerating its decline, falling below 10000 yuan. As of July 31st, the benchmark price of aniline in Shengyi Society is 9825 yuan/ton. The negative impact of cost factors on aggregated MDI.

On the demand side, downstream markets are slowly following suit, but with prices rebounding after falling, the buying atmosphere in the market has improved, resulting in an increase in transactions. Recently, the cold and formaldehyde free board industry has continued to follow up, while other industries have been slow to follow up, and the overall market is driven by a strong trend. The short-term aggregation of MDI demand is influenced by favorable factors.

The future forecast shows limited follow-up from downstream demand, market digestion of price increases, significant cost side bearish constraints, and gradual weakening of supply side support. Business Society’s aggregated MDI analyst predicts that the domestic aggregated MDI market will be weak and mainly follow suit.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average market price of baking soda is 2144 yuan/ton. On July 29th, the baking soda commodity index was 142.43, a decrease of 0.14 points from yesterday, a decrease of 39.61% from the cycle high of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 61.36% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of baking soda is running weakly, and the company’s shipments are still acceptable. Domestic baking soda prices are operating steadily, with a factory price of around 1600-1700 yuan/ton in Henan, 1750-1950 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 1700-1800 yuan/ton in Jiangsu. Downstream demand is average, and it is expected that baking soda will consolidate and operate in the market. Upstream: According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of soda ash has been running weakly this week. The average market price is 1904 yuan/ton.

Business analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been weak recently, and the upstream raw material soda ash has been weak recently. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been purchasing on demand recently, with average demand enthusiasm and a supply-demand game. It is expected that the price of baking soda will be weak in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the overall domestic titanium dioxide market remained stable in July, with an average price of 15783.33 yuan/ton yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the domestic titanium dioxide market remained stable overall, with little upward fluctuation in market prices. In the first half of the year, the price of raw material titanium concentrate continued to rise, while the price of sulfuric acid remained high and firm. Some companies’ maintenance plans were delayed until August, and the market price of titanium dioxide remained stable. In the middle of the month, due to production restrictions and shutdowns by some titanium dioxide companies, there was a slight increase in the prices of scarce brand sources within the field, and manufacturers’ quotations were mainly stable. In the latter half of the year, some maintenance companies resumed production one after another, and Longqi implemented preferential policies for distributors. Most manufacturers’ quotations were mainly stable. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid method pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15300-16200 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is mostly around 14500-15000 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

According to customs data, China’s titanium dioxide exports in June 2024 were 176400 tons, an increase of 18.14% compared to the previous year and a year-on-year increase of 40.42%; Among them, the export of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide in June was 146900 tons, a month on month increase of 16.31%. The cumulative export of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide from January to June was 789800 tons; In June, the export of chlorinated titanium dioxide was 29500 tons, a month on month increase of 28.17%. The cumulative export of chlorinated titanium dioxide from January to June was 182800 tons.

In June 2024, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China was 7547.60 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.54% and a month on month decrease of 16.90%; Among them, the import of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide in June was 2961.09 tons, a month on month increase of 34.93%. The cumulative import of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide from January to June was 14000 tons; In June, the import of chlorinated titanium dioxide was 4586.50 tons, a decrease of 33.41% compared to the previous month. The cumulative import of chlorinated titanium dioxide from January to June was 33700 tons.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the market price of titanium concentrate in the Panxi region remained strong and upward in July. At present, the spot market is tight, and the price of titanium ore is running at a high level. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises are generally in the market, and they are more cautious about titanium concentrate, with a focus on urgent needs and cautious procurement. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1600-1630 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2260-2300 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate is around 2500-2630 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to operate at a high level, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

According to customs data, China exported 9133.48 tons of titanium ore in June 2024, a year-on-year increase of 184.55% and a month on month decrease of 31.44%; From January to June 2024, China’s cumulative export of titanium ore was about 44300 tons, an increase of 163.45% year-on-year, and the export volume increased by about 25500 tons.

In June 2024, China imported 301600 tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year decrease of 5.07% and a month on month decrease of 28.51%. The monthly average price was $284.51 per ton; From January to June 2024, China imported approximately 222.70 tons of titanium ore, a year-on-year increase of 2.14%, with an increase of approximately 46800 tons in import volume.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price of titanium concentrate has continued to rise this month, while the price of sulfuric acid remains high and strong, providing strong cost support. However, downstream market demand remains weak, and the pressure on titanium dioxide companies to ship remains high, with both supply and demand sides in a stalemate. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will remain stagnant in the short term, depending on downstream market demand, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated on a case by case basis.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of July 26th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China was 7966.67 yuan/ton. This week, the price of cyclohexane remained weak and stable, while downstream demand was average, resulting in a narrow decline of 2.05% in price. Currently, the cyclohexane market inventory is running at a high level, with downstream purchases mainly focused on essential needs.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost, the upstream pure benzene market has experienced a narrow decline, and the current spot market price is difficult to boost, which has dragged down confidence in the pure benzene market and a poor market mentality. Currently, the supply side will gradually return in August, and the operating load will remain high, resulting in a poor overall market trading atmosphere.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the short-term cyclohexane market price is expected to remain stable with a weak trend. Currently, the upstream cost support is average, and downstream demand is weak. The mainstream price range for cyclohexane is 8000 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic isopropanol market continued to decline in mid July. On July 11th, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8550 yuan/ton, and on July 19th, the average price was 8520 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.35%.

The domestic isopropanol market continued to decline in mid July. The overall market situation is relatively light, with poor trading and a strong wait-and-see attitude. Downstream inquiries are average. The recent operating rate has increased compared to before. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 8400-8600 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu Zhejiang region are around 8600-8700 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market first rose and then fell in mid July. On July 11th, the average price of acetone was 7767.5 yuan/ton, and on July 19th, the average price was 7747.5 yuan/ton. Overall, the price decreased by 0.26%. At present, the acetone market continues to decline, downstream demand is limited, on-site follow-up of actual orders is limited, and trading is average.

In terms of propylene, the propylene market has fluctuated and risen this week. On July 11th, the average domestic propylene price was 7190 yuan/ton, and on July 19th, the average price was 7220.75 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.42%. At present, the inventory of enterprises is low, and downstream demand is still acceptable. It is expected that the market will operate steadily with a moderate to strong trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price will continue to decline in mid July. The acetone market is weak, while the propylene market price is fluctuating and rising, with average cost support. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement is poor, with a focus on essential needs. It is expected that the isopropanol market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of July 12th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4250 yuan/ton. This week, the DMF market price was mainly weak, with an overall price drop of 2.07%. Currently, the mainstream price is around 4300 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced. Enterprises mainly offer discounts and take orders, and the overall market negotiation focus is stable.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the overall market price of DMF is mainly running in a narrow and weak range, with a narrow downward trend in prices. Currently, downstream demand is poor, with a mainstream price range of 4300/ton. Manufacturers are actively shipping and logistics are smooth, but downstream demand is weak. Currently, the cost side of DMF is slightly supported, and it will maintain a stable, medium, and strong operation in the near future. Downstream enterprises purchase against rigid demand.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market will maintain its current trend in the short term, with mainstream prices remaining at 4700-4800 yuan/ton.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the domestic PC market was weak in early July, with spot prices of various brands falling narrowly. As of July 9th, the benchmark price for the mixed PC of Shengyishe was around 16416.67 yuan/ton, an increase or decrease of -0.20% compared to June 1st.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic price of bisphenol A fell in early July. The upstream pure benzene market has fallen, causing a certain drag on bisphenol A in the raw material end. Downstream stocking enthusiasm is poor, and the flow of goods is slow. Overall, bisphenol A has weakened its support for PC cost.

In terms of supply: In early July, the overall operating rate of PC in China remained stable with little movement, and the industry average operating rate decreased by about 1% to 74% compared to the end of last month. There were relatively few news about industry maintenance and resumption of work within this period. There is abundant supply of goods on site, and there are also reports that the main brands of Hengli Petrochemical are about to be put on sale, which has negatively affected the mentality of the operators and generally resulted in weak factory pricing. The overall supply side of the market lacks support for PC prices.

In terms of demand: In early July, PC consumption continued the previous weak pattern, with the main logic leaning towards maintaining production and digesting inventory for just needs. Downstream enterprises have seen a decline in load, reduced stocking enthusiasm, and a decrease in consumption. Buyers have some resistance to high priced goods, and there is an upward trend in social inventory. The demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

The PC market has been weak and volatile recently. The upstream bisphenol A market has weakened, and PC cost support has weakened. The load of domestic polymerization plants is generally sideways, and the news of new product sales increases supply expectations. The demand side consumption has a strong off-season market trend, with poor on market trading. Although some companies are approaching maintenance in the future, the momentum of the PC market is weak, and it is expected that the PC market may not rise in the short term, with continued consolidation and operation as the main focus.