I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

The average price of epichlorohydrin was 14100.00 yuan per ton (including taxes) as of June 14, up 1.20% compared with the beginning of the week, according to the data from the business associations’list. At present, the market price of epichlorohydrin in China is 13500 yuan per ton to 15000 yuan per ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: The domestic market of epichlorohydrin is rising this week. At present, the spot supply is tight, manufacturers offer high, low-price supply is difficult to find, downstream negotiation price tentative rise, but the actual follow-up is limited. At present, the mainstream quotation in the East China market is 14500 yuan/ton, which is delivered by acceptance. Shandong mainstream market quotation is 14300 yuan/ton, self-raised. The mainstream quotation in Huangshan area is 14500 yuan/ton, which is accepted and delivered.

Industry chain: Upstream propylene (Shandong) prices have risen rapidly in recent years and then stabilized and fell slightly. The downstream epoxy resin cost pressures remain unchanged, and the focus of the manufacturer’s discussion is rising.

3. Future market forecast:

According to business associations, the domestic epichlorohydrin market will be dominated by high-level finishing in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data from the commodity list of business associations, the domestic formaldehyde market fell this week, with the average price of formaldehyde at the beginning of the week (June 2) being 1206.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week (June 6), the average price of formaldehyde at the weekend (June 6) being 193.33 yuan/ton, down by 1.11%, and the current price fell by 21.75% compared with last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic formaldehyde market prices fell. At the weekend, Hebei mainstream factory quotation was about 1130 yuan/ton, South China mainstream factory quotation was about 1260 yuan/ton, Shandong mainstream factory quotation was 1120 yuan/ton, Jiangsu mainstream factory quotation was 1350 yuan/ton. Tianning Chemical 80,000 tons of formaldehyde plant was restarted, the supply of formaldehyde in the formaldehyde market was still acceptable, downstream manufacturers were affected by environmental protection, the start-up rate was reduced, and the price of formaldehyde fell.

Industry chain: The upstream methanol market was affected by macro and port inventory. The price at the beginning of the week was 2334.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week was 2234.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.28%. No support for formaldehyde products, formaldehyde manufacturers have a general mentality, downstream maintenance just need to purchase, on-site trading is more cautious, formaldehyde prices fell.

3. Future Market Forecast

The upstream methanol market has been declining in recent days, the cost support is insufficient, and the downstream start-up rate is general. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts of business, social and Chemical Bureau expect that domestic formaldehyde prices or weak consolidation will dominate in the near future.

Price Trend

In May 2019, the domestic BDO market continued to be weak and rigid. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the BDO price was 9064 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 8900 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a decrease of 1.81% in the month. Prices fell by 24.48% over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In May, the domestic BDO market continued to be weak and rigid. At the end of April and the beginning of May, the pre-maintenance plants were restarted one after another, while the short-term shutdown and maintenance of the BDO plant in Meizhou Bay, Fujian Province, during May 1, resulted in a relatively stable overall start-up load. In mid-January, Xinjiang Tianye BDO plant routine parking overhaul is expected to reduce the supply of goods in Xinjiang for about 20 days; downstream Yizheng Chemical Fiber PBT plant has been put into operation successfully, but considering the weak market of PBT, will adopt the “stop old and open new” mode, the overall demand for BDO growth is not obvious. In late January, due to rising raw material prices and serious cost inversion, some factories raised spot offer, but downstream demand continued to be depressed, limited digestibility, strong resistance to high prices. At the same time, due to cost pressure, Kaixiang PBT plant will stop, the demand for self-use BDO will decrease, and the market supply may increase. Under the pressure of supply and demand, middlemen follow up cautiously, keep the pace of shipment, and negotiate with the market. Although the long-rumored new BDO device failed to be put into operation this month, it has had a certain impact on the market mentality. At present, the favorable market support is not obvious and the rising power is insufficient. The focus is on whether the new PBT device in Tunhe, Lanshan, Xinjiang can be put into operation normally and whether the PBT device other than Kaixiang can be operated under normal pressure. In June, the domestic BDO market will still be weak and stable under the supply-demand pull-saw game, focusing specifically on device dynamics and downstream PBT demand.

Industry chain: raw materials: methanol: northwest methanol market rose this month, most of the shipments in Inner Mongolia this month were purchased by traders, due to the news of olefin restart in Jiutai and Datang, which brought some support. Guanzhong’s overall shipment is good this month. At the end of the month, due to a large number of orders not issued, the price was lowered. Although the market was still rising this month, there was no substantial increase in downstream demand in Lianghu, East China and the local market. In the future, the market has little chance to rise sharply, mainly by shocks. Calcium carbide: Domestic downstream PVC repair enterprises will start in early June, but the rest of the PVC manufacturers will be repaired soon, calcium carbide demand growth is limited, upstream active shipment. On the upstream, the price of orchid charcoal is high, and the profit of calcium carbide is compressed. Under the constant pressure of the market, the price of calcium carbide will be lower next month.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in May 2019, there were 21 commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The top three commodities were epichlorohydrin (11.73%), nitric acid (9.51%) and butadiene (9.15%). There are 48 kinds of products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 31.1% of the monitored products in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-60.56%), sulfuric acid (-42.25%) and TDI (-26.21%). This month’s average rise and fall was -3.9%.

3. Future Market Forecast

The domestic BDO market is stable and the supply of spot goods is abundant. However, due to the large environmental impact downstream, it is difficult to increase the overall demand, so it is more difficult to enter the market to counter the price and make up for the warehouse at the lowest price. Although the factory offer is firm, but based on the contradiction between downstream demand and supply and demand, the pull-up appears to be “more than one’s heart but less than one’s strength”. At present, the main focus of the market is in the downstream PBT industry. Whether it can produce under pressure is the key to the trend of BDO. On the whole, the cost support is not strong. The market news is not clear yet, and the good support is scarce. Under the situation of unbalanced supply and demand, is BDO Factory Limited production and guaranteed price or continue production to let it go down? These are all unknowns. In view of the uncertain information released by the market, BDO analysts of business associations expect that the operators dare not rush to operate, stable prices are still the mainstream, and the domestic BDO market is weak and stable in the short term, paying particular attention to the downstream PBT demand.

Price Trend

In May 2019, the domestic 1 Lead Ingot Market fluctuated lower. The average price of domestic market was 16762.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 3.36%.

The lead commodity index on June 3 was 98.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.43% from the cyclical peak of 134.01 (2016-11-29), and up 32.11% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: The spot lead market in eastern China has declined as a whole, mainly affected by environmental protection in May. 25 provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government have been affected by the shutdown of some manufacturers, and some manufacturers have been repaired. The overall market is weak. The price fell below 16,000 yuan in the middle of the month, and recovered to 16,000-16200 range after 15,950 yuan/ton hovering.

Supply and demand: According to data released Wednesday by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG), the global lead market oversupply expanded from 3,600 tons in February to 10,300 tons in March.

According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) on May 22, the global lead market supply gap was 119,000 tons in January-March 2019 and 278,000 tons in the whole year of 2018. Total inventory at the end of March was 7,000 tons lower than at the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to March 2019, the global production of refined lead was 3.09 million tons, an increase of 6.6% over the same period last year. From January to March, China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 1486,000 tons, an increase of 242,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 46% of the global total. From January to March, the US’s apparent demand increased by 10,000 tons over the same period last year. In March 2019, global refined lead production was 104.89 million tons and consumption was 109.93 million tons.

Domestic events:

Battery industry is at high risk! Eight lead-acid plants were shut down in one month, and the quality of lithium batteries was mixed. The introduction of the new national standard for electric vehicles is a fatal blow to the whole vehicle enterprise. A large number of businessmen shut down and the speed of brand shuffling is accelerated. But for the battery industry, the most important part of electric vehicles, there are two days of ice and fire.

Shanghai Municipal Lead Accumulator Regional Collection and Transportation Pilot Work Program: Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment and Municipal Transportation Bureau recently issued the “Shanghai Municipal Lead Accumulator Regional Collection and Transportation Pilot Work Program”. According to the plan, by 2020, the city’s lead accumulator centralized collection and trans-regional transport system was initially established to effectively prevent and control the environmental risk of waste lead accumulator. The standard recovery rate of lead-acid batteries (i.e. the ratio of the collection of waste lead-acid batteries to the renewal sales of lead-acid batteries) is over 40%.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

In May, Lun lead fell, while Shanghai lead slightly declined. With the reduction of demand from recycling manufacturers, the price of waste batteries also declined. With the arrival of the batteries replacement season in June, and many manufacturers will resume production, the willingness of batteries to purchase raw materials will also be better than the previous period. It is expected that the lead market will be mainly shocked in June.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic market of cyclohexanone shook. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone producers was 8 350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 8 600 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price dropped by 2.99% in the week, 28.33% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: Cyclohexanone market price rose slightly this week, then decreased slightly. Pure benzene market is weak and rising, and cost support is stable. On May 22, Bank of China of Jining parked and repaired but exported normally. The volume of cyclohexanone exported from western Shandong decreased slightly, and the spot production of cyclohexanone decreased slightly. In addition, the purchasing volume of chemical fibre factories downstream last week was still acceptable. Traders were in a high mood, actively purchasing in large quantities, manufacturers and markets took advantage of increased opportunities, and the price of East China market rose to 8950 yuan/ton cash delivery. During the week, the downstream caprolactam market continued to be weak. The caprolactam manufacturers with cyclohexanone gap still had production lines in the parking maintenance stage. The overall demand for chemical fibers was relatively small. The downstream market was not confident enough in the future market. Market shipments were blocked. Market prices began to yield slightly. The market mentality was pessimistic and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, this week the price of pure benzene in East China rose slightly, mainstream negotiations in East China in 4500-4550 yuan/ton, Shandong mainstream negotiations in 4250-4380 yuan/ton. Within a week, the number of ships arriving at the port decreased, and the inventory of East China Port decreased slightly to about 230,000 tons. Caprolactam: This week, domestic caprolactam liquid spot market declines slowed. As for raw materials, the price of pure benzene has little fluctuation, basically maintained at 4450-4500 yuan/ton, which has little effect on caprolactam; the price of cyclohexanone has risen slightly this week, and the cost pressure of manufacturers that take cyclohexanone outside is still high. In terms of supply and demand, the supply of caprolactam has decreased this week. In Shanxi Lubao 100,000-ton plant parking overhaul, Xuyang 100,000-ton plant parking overhaul, Yangquan 200,000-ton plant resumption of production, Hubei Sanning 140,000-ton plant short shutdown for three days, the spot supply has decreased, and some factories have low-price mentality.

3. Future Market Forecast

Short-term cyclohexanone plant silver May 22 parking overhaul, planned to start in early June, expected next week spot export volume will increase slightly, in addition to the current manufacturers still have spot inventory pressure. From the cost point of view, the pure benzene market is consolidated horizontally, and the cost support is relatively stable. On the demand side, there is no plan to restart Nanjing Dongfang in June. Yongrong cyclohexanone plant starts normally and can basically meet the demand for caprolactam. In the short term, Shenyuan’s purchase of cyclohexanone is unlikely. Shandong Haili’s 200,000-ton caprolactam plant has maintenance plan in early June, while cyclohexanone is still unclear. Overall, however, the supply of cyclohexanone may exceed the demand. Cyclohexanone analysts, a business firm, expect the market to remain weak next week.

Price Trend

Taking rutile titanium dioxide with sulphuric acid process as an example, according to the data of a large number of business associations, the average price of titanium dioxide decreased slightly in May, from 16 666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 16 333.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2%.

On May 30, the commodity index of titanium dioxide was 77.54, which was the same as yesterday. It was 22.46% lower than the 100.00 point in the cycle (2011-09-04), and 50.04% higher than the 51.68 point on December 29, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: This month, the market of titanium dioxide is weak, compared with the previous period, the price hardness is obviously weakening. In March, dragon enterprises jumped up, which has lasted for the past two months. At this stage, the surface price was stable, the actual market fell. Without continuous stimulation of dragon enterprises, the market was difficult to maintain. On the one hand, the demand of small and medium-sized coatings enterprises shrank due to the high pressure of environmental protection. The situation of producers is different. Most enterprises have increased inventories, and there are more low-priced Travelling Goods Enterprises that actually trade in a single negotiation. At present, most domestic mainstream quotations for sulfuric acid rutile are 15 500-16 500 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of anatase titanium dioxide is 13000-14000 yuan/ton (including tax).

Industry chain: The price of titanium concentrate in Panxi region dropped steadily and moderately this month. Recent downstream demand has slowed down, market inquiries have decreased, and the price wait-and-see sentiment of titanium ore is obvious. At present, the price of 46-grade 10-titanium concentrate for medium and small-sized miners in Panxi area is between 1150-1200 yuan/ton (excluding tax), while that for large-scale miners is about 1200 yuan/ton (excluding tax).

3. Future Market Forecast

This month, the domestic titanium dioxide price market is weak. Business analysts believe that the titanium dioxide market is weak, most enterprises have increased inventories, and some holders are short of the market, which has weakened and adjusted. In the short term, the price of titanium dioxide is mainly weak, while the actual transaction price or in the weak of a single proposal.

On May 29, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of 30 days, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was between 1900 and 2050 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price has risen. As of 30 days, the market price is 1726.67 yuan/ton. The rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has risen slightly. As of 30 days, the price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region has maintained in the range of 3200-3600 yuan/ton, while that in the northwest region is around 2900-3100 yuan/ton. The upward trend of raw material prices in the upstream has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to remain low in the latter part of the shocks.

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by business associations, the spot price of nickel on May 27 was 100766.67 yuan/ton, which was 3.17% higher than the previous trading day of 97666.67 yuan/ton, 12.58% higher than the beginning of the year, and 9.1% lower than the previous trading day. Spot nickel rose by about 3,200 yuan/ton today. The nighttime LME three-month nickel rallied sharply, closing in the early morning of May 25 at $12,380 per ton, or 4.12 per cent. Starting at 2:30 p.m. this afternoon, the non-ferrous inner and outer plates flushed red collectively. At one time, Shanghai nickel surged from 97,000 yuan per ton to 103,000 yuan per ton, an increase of more than 3%.

Indonesian elections sparked riots fearing an impact on nickel supply

The recent Indonesian coup coincided with the holidays in various mines during Ramadan (mid-May-mid-June), and the overall output of Indonesian nickel ore was reduced compared with April. Protests triggered by recent election results in Indonesia have killed at least six people, injured 200 others and arrested more than 250 people. The market generally believes that the riots in Indonesia are the main reason for the sharp rise in nickel prices.

As the largest supplier of nickel ore in China, Indonesia is highly dependent on imports of nickel ore and ferronickel from Indonesia. The data show that the proportion of imports of nickel ore and ferronickel from Indonesia in the first quarter of this year is more than 60%. The extreme actions of the anti-forces in Indonesia may affect the exploitation of nickel ore or lead to a further ban on the export of nickel ore in Indonesia in the future. In addition, the exaggeration of media news and the association of historical events with more serious consequences may make it difficult for Chinese and Chinese enterprises to invest in Indonesia in the future. As the world’s largest nickel mining area, as well as an important stainless steel and ferronickel producing area, Indonesia’s major political events are bound to have a long-term impact on the nickel market.

Reducing Vehicle Purchase Tax and Benefiting New Energy Vehicles

On the afternoon of the 24th, the Ministry of Finance issued the Announcement of Specific Policies on Vehicle Purchase Tax, which was calculated according to the actual transaction price, and was aimed at stimulating domestic automobile consumption, including new energy vehicles. Therefore, the demand for nickel from ternary batteries was improved and the price of nickel was boosted.

Nickel fundamentals are still weak

Fundamentals have not heard good news yet. New production capacity of ferronickel at home and abroad exceeds expectations. Supply will turn from tightening to a small excess situation. With the resumption of production capacity of ferronickel maintenance in June and the release of new production capacity, the degree of excess supply will be aggravated. At that time, production profits of high ferronickel will continue to decline. At the same time, the downstream nickel stainless steel market continues to be weak. Nearly the end of the month, some stainless steel factories on the market continue to arrive, stainless steel continues to basement, while the downstream demand has not improved, shipment by shippers is more difficult, the firm price attitude of stainless steel factories has been relaxed in the early stage, and the spot market turnover is still flat.

It is difficult to reverse the trend of nickel without significant terminal warming up

The sharp rise in nickel prices is caused by the political events triggered by the Indonesian riots, the reduction of vehicle purchase tax and the improvement of nickel prices. On the other hand, the weakening of the US dollar has boosted metal prices. But the riot was mainly in the capital Jakarta, not a nationwide campaign. The major producers of nickel ore, ferronickel and stainless steel were less affected by the riot and were basically in normal production. They returned to work on the 5th day and the situation is controllable. And the dollar may strengthen again. New energy vehicles are only a small part of nickel price demand. Fundamental factors will continue to be the driving force of nickel price trend. The short-term sudden rise in nickel prices is difficult to sustain. Only the improvement of downstream demand can support the real bottom rebound of nickel prices. However, stainless steel has accumulated counter-seasonally. At present, there is no sign of improvement in demand. Non-ferrous analysts of business associations believe that nickel prices will operate weakly in the short term.

First, the price trend

According to business figures, the overall price of domestic xylene fell this week, with an average of 5576 yuan/ton of business at the beginning of the week, and the average price of an enterprise on weekends was a weekly low price, 5550 yuan/ton, and a weekly amplitude of 0.47%.

Ii. Analysis and review 1. Crude oil: Increased concerns about global trade risks, a blow to capital markets, and the highest level of U.S. crude oil inventories since July 2017 offset the impact of OPEC production cuts and tensions in the Middle East, with U.S. stocks plummeting, international oil prices plunging and Brent 68.4-73.2 dollars/barrels.

It is expected that in the short term the crude oil market will still be the main shock, there is some upward possibility. 2, FOB South Korea xylene Reference price affected by crude oil, this weekend began to cut, Sinopec’s branch xylene listed prices reduced.

In terms of inventory, port inventories have been digested this week, with around 83,000 tonnes in eastern China.

3, following last week’s xylene market recovery, price rebound, this week xylene market weak, although there is a certain positive side support, but by the raw materials and demand side of the impact, the price of a decline.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Business Society Chemical Branch Xylene analysts believe that: next week, crude oil, focus on the United States crude oil 60 dollars/barrel pass can hold up, positive and negative factors affect the market at the same time, oil price mainstream fluctuation range or between 60-62 dollars/barrel. Second quarter at home and abroad more centralized maintenance, xylene estimated supply will be reduced, market expectations optimistic, next week xylene market or can stop falling and rise.

May 23, the mainstream price of ethylene oxide 7300 yuan/ton, South China 7500 yuan/ton, 7450 yuan/ton in central.

Ethylene price is higher, but downstream ethylene glycol and polycarboxylic acid water reducer monomer market supply and demand situation has not been significantly improved, the overall trading situation is light, ethylene oxide manufacturers loss pressure increased.

Liaoning is about to enter the maintenance period, the Tohoku Northeast EO Price. Market wait-and-see atmosphere is rich, short-term stability mainly.