On July 4, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but recently with the warming of the weather, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles. Domestic prices are declining. As of the 5th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was between 1900 and 2050 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance and accept environmental protection inspection. The price trend of ammonium nitrate in the field is temporarily stable.

Recent domestic nitric acid price fluctuation, as of the 5th day, the market price is 1793.33 yuan/ton. The fluctuation of nitric acid price has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upstream is stable, the market performance is weak, the market turnover is still acceptable, and the quotations of most manufacturers are stable. The price quotation of manufacturers in the northern region is maintained in the range of 2850-3600 yuan/ton. The price quotation in the northwest region is around 2750-2900 yuan/ton. The inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high. Normal shipment, rational purchasing of downstream manufacturers and declining price of raw materials in the upstream have a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

On July 3, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 109.26, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.20% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 103.88% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly on July 4. Up to now, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12070 yuan/ton. The domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect the shortage of spot supply of hydrofluoric acid in the field at present. Recently, the situation of goods in the field has improved. Because of the high raw material fluorite, some hydrofluoric acid plants The market price of hydrofluoric acid has risen with the increase of the ex-factory price. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 11500-12500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is about 12000-12500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices increased, spot supply decreased slightly, but demand did not change very much, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market rose.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product price shocks. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions have improved, R22 refrigerant plant surface started at 60%, R22 market device start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is not good, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the shortage of supply, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has risen.

Refrigerant market turnover is general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but the hydrofluoric acid spot supply is tight, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to rise slightly.

I. Lithium hydroxide price trend:

According to the data from the business associations’list, the average price of lithium hydroxide is 83500 yuan per ton as of July 1. The market of lithium hydroxide is mainly stable, while the quotation of industrial lithium hydroxide in some areas has been slightly reduced. At present, the mainstream quotation of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide is around 80000-88000 yuan/ton, down 0.99% compared with last Monday (June 24).

II. Market analysis:

Product: Lithium hydroxide market price slightly reduced. At present, Shanghai Yulun industrial grade lithium hydroxide is quoted at 88000 yuan/ton, Zigong Tongfarong industrial grade lithium hydroxide is quoted at 80000 yuan/ton, and Shanghai Oujin industrial grade lithium hydroxide is quoted at 82500 yuan/ton. The specific price is one-sided.

Industry chain: the upstream lithium carbonate market demand is weak, lack of obvious good support, low-end negotiation focus, strong willingness to ship factories, market prices in some areas slightly fell, downstream users just need to purchase.

3. Future market forecast:

According to business associations, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market in the short term will be mainly stable.

On June 30, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 103.51, which was the same as yesterday. It was 12.59% lower than the peak of 118.42 points in the cycle (2019-01-15), and 33.79% higher than the low of 77.37 points on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant shuts down more, domestic ammonium nitrate plant starts less, but with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappears. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles, and the price trend in the field declines. As of the 1st day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2050 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance for environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is temporarily stable.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1800 yuan/ton on the 1st day. The rising trend of nitric acid price has a positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has slightly declined. As of the 1st day, the price quoted by manufacturers in the northern region has maintained in the range of 3000-3400 yuan/ton, while the price quoted in the northwest region is above and below 290-3000 yuan/ton The decline of raw material price has a negative impact on ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market is shaking at a low level because of the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material market price shocks, but the downstream demand is not good, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain shocks in the later period.

Price trends:

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: Since mid-June, the external market of pure benzene has continued to rise, especially in the United States, which has greatly boosted the market mentality. This week, the price of pure benzene has risen 50-200 yuan for three consecutive days, with a weekly increase of 6.5%. Downstream hydrobenzene enterprises followed the rise, and the ex-factory price generally increased by 100 to 200 yuan. On the supply side, Shandong Province has a relatively large capacity limit this week. The coke enterprises in Hebei and some parts of Shanxi Province have a 30-50% production limit. The output has declined, and the tender sentiment is strong. As of Friday, the quotation range of crude benzol for processing in Shanxi Province is 3400-3450 yuan/ton, up by 150 yuan/ton; and the quotation range of crude benzol for processing in Shandong Province is 3650-3700 yuan./ About 200 yuan per ton.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: This week’s oil price shocks rose, compared with last week’s overall rise. US crude oil was close to $60 per barrel due to the sharp decline in US crude oil stocks and the negative impact of the decline in refined oil stocks. Pure benzene: Domestic pure benzene prices continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene rose 50-200 yuan for three consecutive days, sustained by the good downstream styrene market last week and the decline of pure benzene port stocks. Beginning on Thursday, as most contracts have been completed, the market is not hot to catch up with, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the pure benzene market recovers flat.

3. Trend forecast:

In recent years, the operating rate of hydrobenzene enterprises has been relatively stable, some units have been started one after another, but the demand for crude benzene has not been substantially increased. The pressure of crude benzene is relatively high, the future market of hydrobenzene is limited, and high consolidation is dominant.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, zinc prices in China fell sharply this week, with the biggest drop in non-ferrous products this week. As of June 21, the price of zinc was 20153.33 yuan/ton, down 3.29% from 20840.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Zinc prices fell 15.56% over the same period last year. Overall, cobalt prices fell sharply this week, while zinc market was negative.

II. Market Trend Analysis

In terms of products:

This week, the price of zinc in LME market fell sharply. In June, the price of zinc dropped much more than that of other non-ferrous metals, and there was limited space for zinc price to fall. Inventory of zinc decreased and supply of zinc declined in the future, and zinc market had some momentum to rise.

Zinc prices fell in Shanghai. The June contract closed at 20425 yuan/ton, down 615 yuan/ton, or 3.01%. This week’s futures price of zinc is 21040 yuan/ton, and the lowest price is 18575 yuan/ton. Shanghai futures zinc stocks fell. This week, futures zinc inventory growth, zinc supply increase, zinc market downward pressure still exists, but the recent zinc market demand warmed up, zinc inventory began to decline, zinc market in the future still has an upward momentum.

Data statistics:

The report released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) shows that the global zinc supply shortage increased to 84,000 tons in April and 48,700 tons in March.

According to a report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global zinc market was oversupplied by 4,600 tons in January-April 2019, compared with 67,000 tons in the whole year of last year. Global refined zinc production declined by 4% from January to April 2019, and consumption decreased only slightly from the same period last year. Apparent demand in Japan was 177,700 tons, down 2.7% from January to April 2018. Global zinc demand declined by 1,000 tons from January to April 2019. China’s apparent demand is 1969,000 tons, accounting for about 46% of the global total. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. In the first four months of this year, the global supply shortage of zinc increased to 97,000 tons, compared with 53,000 tons in the same period last year.

The data show that the growth of global supply is declining faster than that of demand. Zinc supply shortage is increasing, and the driving force of Zinc market is greater.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Business analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that: Shanghai futures market zinc ingot inventory rises, domestic zinc supply is sufficient, international zinc market zinc price fell this week, the domestic zinc price is negative, but statistics show that the global zinc supply shortage increased, good for the zinc market, zinc prices in the future have a driving force, expected future zinc price shocks rise.

On June 23, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 54.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.04% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 11.54% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has risen slightly, the market price of phthalic anhydride in eastern China has rebounded, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory is still under pressure, high-end transactions are blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiation is 5600-5700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiation is 5300-5400 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride in North China is 5600-5700 yuan/ton and the market price is small. The price of phthalic anhydride plant in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride is rising slightly.

In recent years, the domestic price of phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec o-phthalic acid is 5900 yuan/ton. The import market of o-phthalic anhydride in port area is temporarily stable, and the quotation is stable. In recent years, the market of o-phthalic anhydride in port is general, and the port stock is low. Upstream raw materials mixed xylene price shocks, phthalic turnover is general, port phthalic inventory is low, phthalic external quotation is low, import phthalic cost shocks, the actual transaction price is detailed, upstream price trend remains low, phthalic anhydride market price rise is limited. Downstream DOP raw material phthalic anhydride prices temporarily stabilized, isooctanol prices rose, DOP costs rose. DOP price shocks maintain stability, DOP downstream demand is general, customer purchasing enthusiasm is general, downstream PVC market shocks maintain stability, DOP market mainstream transaction price around 7100 yuan/ton, DOP downward pressure weakens, there is a certain upward momentum, the market price of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise slightly later.

Price Trend

Business associations: MTBE market prices fell first and then rose this week (June 16-June 21)

According to data from business associations, MTBE’s price this weekend was 4600 yuan/ton, up 1.47% from the previous week’s price.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Gasoline market prices fell first and then rose. Some operators started replenishment operations, and the domestic MTBE market improved somewhat during this period.

Industry chain: At present, domestic gasoline market liquidity has maintained a downturn, but in the middle of this week, supported by the surge in crude oil, market mindset has improved slightly, downstream replenishment willingness has increased, MTBE manufacturers’quotation has rebounded slightly under the improvement of shipment. MTBE market prices also rose this week from a decline.

3. Future Market Forecast

MTBE product analysts from the Energy Branch of Business Association believe that the demand for gasoline has not improved yet, but MTBE manufacturers still have a lot of intention to push up, combined with the rising price of crude oil market, MTBE market prices are expected to rise steadily next week.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, zinc ingot stocks in Shanghai futures market have soared recently, and zinc supply has risen. Affected by this, domestic zinc prices have fallen sharply and continued to fall sharply in June. As of June 17, the price of zinc was 20840.00 yuan/ton, down 1.93% from 21250.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Zinc prices fell 14.63% over the same period last year. Overall, in June, zinc market supply growth demand is limited, zinc market is negative.

II. Market Trend Analysis

As can be seen from the chart, the inventory of zinc ingots in LME market fell slightly in June, the supply of zinc ingots in the global zinc market was basically stable, while the demand remained unchanged, and the price of zinc was insufficient; the stock of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market rose sharply, the supply of zinc in domestic market rose sharply, and the price of zinc was obviously short. Without a big change in the demand of domestic zinc market, the supply rose sharply dragged down the price of zinc. The international zinc price has fallen sharply, and the downward pressure is greater.

Policies and regulations:

On June 6, the State Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Ecological Environment and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Renewal and Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods and Unobstructed Recycling of Resources (2019-2020) (hereinafter referred to as the “Plan”), which takes the structural reform of the supply side as the main line, and focuses on promoting the upgrading of automobile, household appliances and consumer electronics products from four aspects of “consolidation, enhancement, promotion and smoothness”. Promote the recycling of old products. It is expected that the demand for zinc ingots in automotive and household appliances industries will rise sharply in the future, and the demand of zinc market will rise in the future, which will benefit the price of zinc obviously. However, the impact of policies and regulations has a certain lag, and the momentum of zinc market’s rise in the short term is insufficient.

Zinc production capacity:

Data released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Organization predict that China, the world’s largest producer of zinc, will increase production by 5.3% this year and refined zinc production by 3.6%. But according to the data, the actual output of refined zinc in China dropped by 0.67% in the first four months of this year. The main reason for the decline in production is that some large factories are relocated due to environmental protection problems, which is related to the sudden overhaul of smelters, but not to small zinc smelters. With the weakening of environmental protection and relocation in the future, zinc production is bound to rebound, and domestic zinc production capacity is expected to be released in the second half of the year.

Statistics of automobile sales

On June 12, the China Automobile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the “China Automobile Association”) released data showing that in May 2019, domestic automobile sales completed 1913,000 vehicles, down 16.4% from the same period last year. Passenger car sales were 1.511 million, down 17.4% year-on-year. From January to May, automobile sales totaled 10.266 million vehicles, down 13% year-on-year; from January to May, passenger car sales totaled 8.399 million vehicles, down 15.2% year-on-year, a slight increase over January to April. From January to May 2019, car sales declined by 15.8%, 13.77%, 5.2%, 14.6% and 16.4% respectively. China Automobile Association said that due to the downward pressure of macro-economy and the early implementation of the Sixth Emission Standard in some regions, automobile production and sales are still at a low level. It is expected that in the second half of the year, with the increasing number of car models meeting the Sixth National Standard and the continuing effect of a series of policy measures such as tax reduction and fee reduction, the car market will all improve. Automobile sales fell, demand for zinc fell, domestic zinc price shocks fell, and zinc prices were negative in the future.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with business associations, believes that the stock of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market has risen sharply and the supply of zinc in China is abundant, but zinc price has a favorable negative effect, and the demand of zinc market is slightly inadequate due to the continuous decline in automobile sales. The pressure of zinc market’s decline remains. However, with the introduction of the National Implementation Plan for Promoting the Upgrading and Upgrading of Key Consumer Goods (2019-2020), It stimulates consumption and has a better demand for zinc in the future. There is space for zinc in the future. However, due to the lagging influence of policies and regulations, the outbreak point of zinc demand rise or the lack of momentum for short-term zinc price rise in the second half of the year. It is expected that the fluctuation of zinc price will fall in June, and the downward trend will be alleviated or warmed up at the end of June.

Price trends:

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate ex-factory price trend is temporarily stable this week. The average weekend price is 1966.67 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the early weekend price of 1966.67 yuan/ton, down 2.45% from the same period last year.

II. Market analysis:

Products: This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is temporarily stable. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plant start-up is limited and domestic ammonium nitrate plant start-up is less. However, due to more shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start-up is limited, and the price trend in the field remains weak. By the end of the weekend, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiation was 1850-2050 yuan/ton. Affected by environmental protection and the cancellation of gas restriction, manufacturers in many areas are now forced to limit production or stop production for maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection. The demand for ammonium nitrate in the downstream has decreased, but the prices of the upstream raw material nitric acid and liquid ammonia Market are declining, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable affected by raw material prices.

Industry chain: This week’s domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1760 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend, and this week’s price trend is stable; the upstream raw material liquid ammonia price trend is slightly declining, the market price of liquid ammonia by the end of the weekend is 3286.67 yuan/ton, this week’s price is lower, the upstream raw material price trend is low for ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Recently, the downstream civil explosion industry is in the off-season. The demand for ammonium nitrate Market is weakening, the inventory of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is increasing, the market of nitric acid is not good, and the price of nitric acid market remains low.

Industry: In recent years, ammonium nitrate Market in general, downstream civil explosion industry fully parked, but the upstream raw material market price slightly declined, ammonium nitrate market price trend is stable.

3. Future market forecast:

Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the recent upstream raw material nitric acid market price decline, but the downstream demand is poor, ammonium nitrate market prices are expected to maintain low volatility in the later period.