1、 Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cobalt price rose sharply this week and then fell sharply. The market of the cobalt market was adjusted by shocks. As of February 23, the price of cobalt was 273333.34 yuan / ton, down 1.50% from the average price of 277500.00 yuan / ton on February 18. The price of cobalt on February 18 was 1.34% higher than the price of 273833.34 yuan / ton at the end of last week. This week, the price of cobalt rose first and then fell, and the market of cobalt fluctuated and adjusted.

2、 Reason overview

After two weeks of continuous rise, cobalt prices fell sharply this week. And the performance of cobalt industry in the stock market was poor, and there were several consecutive stops. In the early stage, the performance of cobalt market is so eye-catching, why the performance of cobalt market is so bad this week, and whether the cobalt market can be sustained is the key research topic of cobalt Market in the near future.

The poor performance of the cobalt market this week and the sharp decline in cobalt prices are all based on the news: “Tesla is in-depth negotiations with Ningde times to use cobalt free batteries in vehicles made in China.”. As soon as the news came out, the spot price of cobalt fell sharply, and the performance of cobalt enterprises in the stock market was even more green, and many drop stops appeared.

The rise and fall of the spot market is obviously not determined by the supply-demand relationship. After the Spring Festival, spot cobalt prices rose for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to the production reduction and production suspension of cobalt mining enterprises, the establishment of state-owned companies in the DRC to increase the efforts to regulate artisanal mining and other news stimulus, and the future cobalt supply is expected to decline. However, in the spot market, due to the impact of the epidemic, domestic mobile phones, electronic products and other enterprises are limited to start work, the demand of cobalt market has declined significantly, and the logistics is limited, and metal cobalt transactions in the spot market are extremely limited. However, due to the fact that cobalt ore is mostly imported from abroad, and domestic cobalt smelting enterprises start work normally, domestic cobalt supply is sufficient, and domestic cobalt market inventory has increased. The supply and demand of domestic cobalt Market in the spot market is unbalanced, the rise of cobalt price loses support, and the bearish psychology of cobalt market appears. After Tesla announced the use of cobalt free batteries in Chinese factories, the market panic intensified, the bearish voice of the cobalt market soared, and the price of cobalt plummeted.

3、 Future prospects

Baijiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, thinks that from the cobalt Market after the festival, we can see that the rise and fall of domestic spot cobalt prices are all news stimulus, good news stimulus, and cobalt prices soared. Bad news stimulated cobalt prices to fall. However, in terms of supply and demand, affected by the epidemic situation, the start-up of mobile phone electronic products, new energy vehicles and other enterprises is limited. In the first quarter, the sales and production of mobile phone new energy vehicles will be significantly reduced, and the demand for cobalt will be significantly reduced. In terms of supply, many cobalt mining enterprises and cobalt smelting enterprises will stop production, and the DRC will intensify efforts to regulate the artisanal cobalt mines, so the global cobalt supply will be reduced. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of cobalt Market in the future are declining, but in the long run, new energy vehicles are still the development trend, 5g will also bring new growth point of cobalt use, and the long-term rise of cobalt price is still inevitable. However, in the short term, the momentum of cobalt price rise is insufficient, and it is not suitable for cobalt price to catch up with high. It is expected that cobalt price will fluctuate and maintain stability in the short term.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

 
Nitric acid price curve

 
According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China at the beginning of this week was 1566 yuan / ton, while the average price at the weekend was 1583 yuan / ton, up 1.06%.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the prices of some concentrated nitric acid enterprises have increased, and Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical industry has stopped reporting; Anhui Jinhe Chemical Co., Ltd. has offered 1450 yuan / ton, 50 yuan / ton higher than last time; Wenshui County Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. has offered 1860 yuan / ton, 110 yuan / ton higher than before; affected by the epidemic situation, the nitric acid market demand is light. Nitric acid enterprises began to work gradually, and market supply gradually recovered.

Industry chain: at the beginning of the week (2.17), according to the monitoring of the business agency, the market of domestic liquid ammonia was slightly lower than that of the previous weekend. Downstream aniline, the market rose this week.

3、 Future forecast

To sum up, it is supported by aniline, but the nitric acid market demand is limited, and the nitric acid analyst of the business society expects that nitric acid may be mainly sorted.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price trend of soda ash this week is stable. During the week, the average market price from East China to the weekend was 1550 yuan / ton, and the operation price was relatively stable. The commodity index of light soda ash on February 20 was 79.49, unchanged from yesterday, down 32.56% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 25.87% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic soda price this week is weak and stable, and the market trading atmosphere is general. The overall trend of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1570-1600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1550-1600 yuan / ton. The actual transaction is relatively flexible. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more narrow in the short term. The overall trend of soda ash in East China is temporarily stable. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1500-1700 yuan / ton. The downstream is mainly rigid and requires procurement. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more stable in the short term. The overall trend of soda ash in Central China is temporarily stable. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1350 yuan / ton. The mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1400-1500 yuan / ton. Most of the downstream soda needs to be purchased. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more sorted and operated in the short term.

Demand: affected by the epidemic situation, soda ash enterprises have not started enough. The market of soda ash is stable, and the market fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is constrained by the demand logistics. The downstream demand is general and the market is light. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the sixth week of 2020 (2.10-2.14), there is a total of 1 rising commodity, 1 falling commodity and 3 rising and falling commodities. The main commodities rising were caustic soda (2.16%); the main commodities falling were PVC (- 1.10%). This week’s average was 0.21%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of the business association, the recent domestic soda ash manufacturers’ shipment situation is general, the downstream demand is general, and the traders are more cautious to wait on the market. It is expected that the market fundamentals will not improve significantly in the short term, the supply and demand of soda ash will not be smooth, and the market of soda ash in the next week may maintain a weak and stable market.

1、 Price trend

The mainstream price in GPPS market is RMB 8350-10500; the mainstream price in hips market is RMB 8900-11000.

2、 Market analysis

PS market situation: Jiangsu Lvan Qingfeng PS plant will be shut down for maintenance from January 10. Lv-t6 price is 8800 yuan / ton, Jiangsu chevron PS price is stable, benzene permeable mc3100 is 9800 yuan / ton, ea3300 is 9900 yuan / ton, benzene modified ma5210 is 10700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

PS continues to be dominated by air, and the lack of supply and demand is the biggest obstacle in the current market. It is expected that the short-term market still has room to fall.

On February 16, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 125.26, unchanged from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, 61.90% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

On July 17, the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market in China was temporarily stable, and the start-up of domestic ammonium nitrate plants was limited. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation, some manufacturers did not start work temporarily, the delivery market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers was general, the downstream purchase was on demand, and due to the impact of environmental protection control, the domestic downstream civil explosive industry still had many production stops, the start-up of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers was limited, and the market price trend was temporarily stable. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi Province is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, in Shandong Province is 2200-2400 yuan / ton, and in Hebei Province is 2400-2600 yuan / ton. Affected by the epidemic situation, some downstream manufacturers haven’t started work yet. The demand for ammonium nitrate is limited, but the price of raw materials is low, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is stable.

In the near future, the price trend of domestic nitric acid market continues to maintain a low level, and the quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu Province is 1500 yuan / ton. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui is about 1550 yuan / ton. Shandong manufacturers offer 1600 yuan / ton or so, the price trend is weak. The delivery of nitric acid is general. The low price of nitric acid has a certain negative impact on the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable temporarily. The market of upstream domestic liquid ammonia is declining, while the market of domestic liquid ammonia is slightly declining, most of which are lower than the last weekend’s quotation. Some enterprises in the northern region are slightly declining, but the range is not large, at 50-100 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of the business society, today’s liquid ammonia The decline was 0.64%, which was 5% in total compared with the beginning of last week. However, compared with the year before, the price of liquid ammonia dropped significantly, generally by 500-600 yuan / ton, a decline of more than 8.5%. On the one hand, affected by the epidemic situation, the start-up of enterprises was generally delayed after the year. Although the start-up rate of liquid ammonia manufacturers remained stable, the dealers’ return rate was not high, and the market entered an empty window period, and generally fell into a pause In addition, transportation is still the primary problem that puzzles the industry. Liquid ammonia transportation has also entered a bottleneck period. Long distance and high-speed transportation has been restricted, and multiple factors have been superimposed, resulting in liquid ammonia still not getting rid of the weak situation. The quotations of enterprises in Shandong and Hebei, the main production areas, have been continuously lower. On February 17, some manufacturers still made a downward move, but the range has been narrowed. Shandong mainstream news The price is 2500-2550 yuan / ton, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is stable temporarily. Analysts of ammonium nitrate of business association think that in the near future, the price of upstream raw material nitric acid market remains low, and the downstream demand is not significantly improved, and it is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will be stable in the later stage.

1、 Market Overview

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite market is stable this week. The weekend price is 2900 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price of 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 17.38% year-on-year. Recently, fluorite price is mainly volatile.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the price trend of fluorite in China this week remains high. Recently, the supply of fluorite in China is tight. Affected by the epidemic situation, some fluorite manufacturers have not resumed production. The on-site operating rate is not high. In addition, the downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industries purchase fluorite on demand. The price of fluorite remains high and fluctuates. The price change is not big. The market of fluorite on-site is getting better. However, the price of fluorite is not high At the high level, fluorite price trend is stable. By the end of the week, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2800-3000 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2800-3100 yuan / ton, that of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2800-3000 yuan / ton, and the price trend of fluorite was stable temporarily.

Industry chain: the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite rose this week. As of the end of the week, the ex factory price of hydrofluoric acid was 10720 yuan / ton, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid rose 2.88% this week. The market price rise of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream is a good factor for fluorite market, and the price trend of domestic fluorite market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is slightly light. At present, the automobile industry is in holiday, the domestic R22 supply is tight, the domestic refrigerant R22 market price trend is stable, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production device is still not high, the supply situation of the market supply is general, the downstream air conditioning manufacturer stops more, the demand changes little, and the price mainstream of the domestic large enterprises rises to 15500-18500 Yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is temporarily stable, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. However, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, and the price remains stable, while the downstream purchase is still on demand, and the price trend of fluorite market is mainly stable.

Industry: the unit operating rate of fluorite industry is not high this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is rising, the spot supply of fluorite products is tight, and the market price of fluorite remains volatile.

3、 Future forecast

In the future, there are few domestic fluorite manufacturers to start construction in the near future, and the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid industry is higher. In addition, the downstream refrigeration industry has not yet started construction. Chen Ling, an analyst of fluorite in the business agency, thinks that the price of fluorite will rise slightly in the later stage, and the price may be around 3000 yuan / ton.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber fell this week (2.3-2.7), with the price at the beginning of the week at 11350 yuan / ton and the price at the end of the week at 11000 yuan / ton, down 3.08% overall.

2、 Market analysis

Stable reduction of petrochemical ex factory price: this week (2.3-2.7)), the ex factory price of domestic Shunding rubber petrochemical factory is reduced by 300 yuan / ton. As of February 7, the ex warehouse price of Daqing Shunding of CNPC Northeast sales company is 10800 yuan / ton.

The price of raw materials was lowered, and the support strength of cost side was weakened: the price of butadiene was low, and the support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was weakened. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene at the beginning of the week was 8056 yuan / ton, while the price of butadiene at the end of the week was 7773 yuan / ton, slightly down 3.51%.

Traffic is blocked and demand is light: according to the business association, during the Spring Festival, the provincial and municipal governments issued a notice to postpone the resumption of enterprises. It is reported that the resumption of tire enterprises is postponed accordingly, most of which are initially scheduled to be on February 10 (the 17th day of the first month of the lunar calendar). The downstream resumption of work was delayed, and the overall demand was light.

3、 Future prospects

Business analysts believe that at present, on the one hand, the price of raw materials is low, on the other hand, downstream demand is light, and it is expected that the overall performance of the market in the later period is light and the price is weak.

On February 9, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 93.92, unchanged from yesterday, down 33.12% from 140.43 (2018-02-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 75.26% from 53.59, the lowest point on November 30, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has increased slightly. Up to now, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 10420 yuan / ton, and the operation rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is maintained less than 50%. The enterprises report that the supply of spot hydrofluoric acid in the field is tight at present. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation, the units in Zhejiang, Henan and other provinces have not been started, and the market of hydrofluoric acid in the field has improved recently, because of the downstream demand Generally, the factory price of hydrofluoric acid is increased, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly increased. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is about 10500-11000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 10000-10500 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid rose slightly, the supply of spot goods was tight, but the demand situation was not clearly improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid rose little.

The price of upstream fluorite market remains high. In recent years, fluorite manufacturers are limited in construction, and fluorite supply is very tight. Fluorite price has been at a high level. As of the 10th day, the price of fluorite is 2900 yuan / ton. The high price of upstream raw materials brings certain cost support to hydrofluoric acid market. The price of hydrofluoric acid market is slightly increased due to the price support of raw materials fluorite. In the near future, the transaction market of the downstream refrigerant market of the terminal is slightly light. At present, the automobile industry is in holiday, the domestic R22 supply is tight, the domestic refrigerant R22 market price trend is stable, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production device is still not high, the supply situation of the market supply is general, the downstream air conditioning manufacturer stops more, the demand changes little, and the price mainstream of the domestic large enterprises rises to 15500-18500 Yuan / ton. The price trend of domestic R134a market is temporarily stable, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is general. However, the supply of R134a in the market is a little tight, the price remains stable, the downstream market changes little, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rises slightly.

Generally speaking, the turnover in the refrigerant field is not very big. For the upstream hydrofluoric acid market, the unit operation rate of the refrigerant industry has little change. However, with the shortage of fluorite supply and certain support for the cost, Chen Ling, an analyst of the business club, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

Enterprise’s production on January 20 price on January 20

Shandong Jinling normal production 2000 yuan / ton

Normal production of a 40000 ton / year unit in Jinmao, Dongying: 2000 yuan / ton

Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. starts construction at 60% of 2000 yuan / ton

Jiangxi Liwen man negative production: 2150 yuan / ton

Jiangsu Liwen full negative production: 3400 yuan / ton

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, on January 20, the price of chloroform in Shandong increased by 2.56% compared with the previous trading day. At present, the average price in Shandong is about 2000 yuan / ton.

2、 Cause analysis

Product reason: at present, domestic trichloromethane enterprises are operating normally as a whole, with low inventory. Affected by the high prices of methanol and liquid chlorine in the upstream, the price of trichloromethane has slightly reversed. Towards the end of the year, the downstream and trade companies continue to take a vacation, with insufficient support at the demand side, and the market trading is slightly cold.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the methanol price in the methanol market is high and firm, and each region adjusts its price according to its own supply and demand and downstream stock up rhythm. At present, the price is about 2262 yuan / ton; in the liquid chlorine market, the supply is tight, and the enterprise has a strong attitude of pricing, and the transaction is flat, at present, the price is about 300-500 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is in weak and stable operation, and the market is basically closed before the festival, so there is little room for price adjustment; the pharmaceutical and agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be flat, and the price of chloroform is generally supported.

Industry: on January 20, 2020, there are 8 commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the chemical industry sector. The top three commodities are acetic acid (3.14%), acetone (2.76%) and chloroform (2.56%). There are 8 kinds of goods falling on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of goods falling by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of goods monitored in this sector; the top 3 products falling are hydrogen peroxide (- 7.96%), propylene (- 3.34%) and acrylic acid (- 3.24%).

3、 Future forecast

According to the methane chloride data analyst of the business association, with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the industry is basically closed, and the market trading is slightly cold, coupled with the Limited Logistics and transportation, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend:

On January 19, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 61.07, unchanged from yesterday, down 40.13% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 37.05% from 44.56, the lowest point on August 31, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

2、 Market analysis:

Domestic market: the pressure of hydrobenzene enterprises is still strong this week, and the willingness to ship is strong. As of Friday, the price of hydrobenzene in East China is 5600-5650 yuan / ton. In terms of operating rate, the overall operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is about 50% this week, with heavy snowfall in North China, the main production area, which increases the difficulty of transportation due to bad weather conditions, and the general delivery by manufacturers.

Industry chain: crude oil: this week, oil prices fell in shock. Early in the week, the impact of tensions in the Middle East subsided, and the focus of the market turned to the impact of the surge in US oil product inventories. On Wednesday morning, the United States and China signed the first stage trade agreement, which was good for oil prices, and oil prices began to pick up. WTI fell 0.7% and Brent 3.78% compared to January 10. Pure benzene: near the Spring Festival, the port stock of pure benzene has accumulated. With the completion of downstream replenishment of inventory, the completion of traders’ replenishment of empty space and insufficient crude oil support, the operation of pure benzene is weak this week. Downstream: styrene price is stable this week compared with last week. Due to the downstream stock up before the festival, the shipment of aniline was smooth, and the price was increased by 1.56% compared with last week. Most of the downstream products of pure benzene are in the loss of theoretical production and lack of support for the price of pure benzene.

3、 Trend Forecast:

With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the delivery volume of coke enterprises has increased, but due to the impact of logistics and transportation, the overall transaction situation is general, and the market price before the festival is difficult to fluctuate greatly.