Price Trend

According to the business association’s list data, the price of pure benzene is between 5700 and 5750 yuan per ton, and the current price of pure benzene is between 5800 and 5900 yuan per ton, which is 2.26% higher than that of pure benzene last week.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident last Saturday, the price of pure benzene in the outer market rose sharply at the beginning of the week, which led to a bullish domestic market. In the latter half of the week, oil prices and external markets both fell, and the market attitude was cautious.

2. Crude oil: Saudi Arabia’s largest crude oil facility was attacked by unmanned aerial vehicles last Saturday, causing more than 5 million barrels per day of oil production to be suspended, which affected international oil prices by more than 10% on Monday. In response to the incident, Saudi Arabia said it would use its stockpiles to ensure that crude oil exports were not affected, restore oil supply to pre-attack levels at the end of September, and oil prices fell sharply. Brent rose 4.59% and WTI rose 4.23% from last week.

3. Related industries: Downstream styrene fell by 2.04% compared with last week; downstream aniline rose by 13.13% compared with last week, benefiting pure benzene.

4. External market: At the beginning of the week, due to the favorable influence of the Saudi Arabian incident, the external market rose sharply. On Thursday, the positive effect began to fade and the price of the external market weakened.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude Oil: Despite Saudi Arabia’s efforts to restore crude oil supply, and the United States is ready to take appropriate measures to deal with it, the Middle East risk has a greater impact, and oil prices are still likely to rebound.

2. Domestic market: The risk of crude oil supply has subsided, and the downstream follow-up is insufficient to restrain the later growth.

Considering comprehensively, pure benzene is expected to stabilize and weaken the shock next week.

Price trends:

According to the data of business associations’list, the domestic PA6 market was stronger in mid-September, and most brands’ quotations were raised. Traders’mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 for China-Viscose is about 14666.67 yuan/ton, up 6.28% from the first week of September.

2. Analysis of influencing factors:

The caprolactam liquids in PA66 upstream showed a strong trend in mid-September with strong prices. Low-priced spot gradually decreased, the market shocks and rises. Influenced by the severe turbulence of international crude oil, pure benzene at cost is expected to be optimistic, and producers and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. The downstream inquiry atmosphere has improved. The enthusiasm of raw material purchasing in the slice Market has been slightly improved under the influence of “two-section” inventory, and the mindset of the operators is still acceptable. It is anticipated that the caprolactam market will be in operation or shake the whole market at a high level; caprolactam has good support for PA6 cost, and traders have strong willingness to bid. At present, the downstream demand of the traditional peak season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” is limited. In addition, the supply of PA6 in domestic factories tends to expand. Affected by this trend, the supply and demand of PA6 are closely watched by the industry, and the buyers and sellers are gradually cautious in their operation.

3. Future market forecast:

Business analysts believe that the domestic PA6 market is stronger in mid-September. The upstream caprolactam oscillation is rising, which supports the cost end of PA6 well. Spot supply of domestic PA6 has an expanding trend. The pace of follow-up of downstream PA6 stock is general, demand improvement is limited, and traders of aggregate factories are willing to bid more. PA6 is expected to be adjusted in the near future.

On September 24, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 24th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily. The operation is stable for the time being. As the market supply of p-xylene is normal when the new unit is put into operation, the market price trend of p-xylene is stable for the time being. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene market in Asia rose 2 US dollars/ton on September 23. The closing price is 787-789 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 806-808 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The fluctuation of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene. However, the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On September 23, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose to $58.64 per barrel, an increase of $0.55. Brent crude oil futures rose to $64.77 per barrel, an increase of $0.49. Uzakbe Karabalin, deputy chief executive of Kazakhstan Energy Association, said that Kazakhstan’s annual oil processing capacity would exceed that of Kazakhstan. Seventeen million tons. Karabalin made the above speech at the 6th International Conference on Petroleum Processing and Petrochemical Industries in Caspian Sea and Central Asia. The rising price of crude oil has limited impact on downstream petrochemical products and higher price of xylene. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA market start-up rate maintained high, PTA price trend temporarily stable, the average price of East China in the vicinity of 5200-5300 yuan/ton self-raised, as of 23 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 90%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 89%, due to PTA market supply increase, trading atmosphere is general, to traders to buy. Mainly, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, affected by crude oil price shocks downstream PTA market prices remain low, it is expected that the PX market price will maintain 6600 yuan/ton in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data of business associations, the price trend of cryolite market was stable this week, and the average price of cryolite market was stable at about 6333.33 yuan/ton during the week, down 1.55% from the same period last year. The Cryolite Commodity Index on September 20 was 76.92, unchanged from yesterday, down 24.00% from the cyclical peak of 101.21 points (2011-10-31), and up 15.93% from the lowest point of 66.35 on September 05, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cryolite prices have been running steadily this week, and there is no obvious price adjustment for manufacturers. As of the 20th, Zibo Kunyu Industry and Trade Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Changshu Hongjiafu Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7200 yuan/ton; Jiaozuo Civilian Benefit Industrial Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton; Zhengzhou Tianrui Cryolite quoted 6500 yuan/ton; Shandong Botao Group Co., Ltd. Cryolite quoted 7000 yuan/ton, the enterprise shipped smoothly. The deal is still acceptable.

Industry chain: This week, the price of fluorite in the upstream of cryolite slightly declined. At the beginning of the week, the average price in the domestic market was about 2888.89 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average price in the domestic market was about 2877.78 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.38%, an increase of 7.41% over the previous year. The price trend of fluorite in the upstream continued to decline, mainly due to the imbalance between domestic supply and demand. In recent years, the demand for fluorite in the downstream hydrofluoric acid and refrigerant industries has declined. At the end of the peak season of the refrigerant industry, the market of fluorite on-site is poor. In addition, the operating rate of fluorite devices on-site remains high, but the downstream demand situation is general. The spot supply of fluorite is sufficient, and the price of fluorite in the site has a downward trend. For downstream electrolytic aluminium, this week’s price trend slightly declined, with the price remaining at about 14413.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 14296.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with the price falling by 0.81% in the week.

According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 weeks of 2019 (9.16-9.20), 41 commodities rose annually in the chemical sector, of which 11 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities increased were hydrochloric acid (157.14%), caustic soda (18.47%) and acetone (13.86%). There are 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-5.19%), trichloromethane (-4.17%) and sulfuric acid (-2.98%). This week’s average rise and fall was 3.64%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of cryolite products from business associations believe that the current multi-dimensional and stable quotations from cryolite manufacturers are the main ones. The equipment is running normally, the stock is sufficient, and the shipment is acceptable. The market of cryolite is expected to operate steadily in the later period, with specific attention to market demand.

Price Trend

This week, the domestic ethyl acetate Market showed a weak performance. After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the plant started to work steadily and the market supply increased significantly. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market offer of ethyl acetate in eastern China was 6176 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, while the market offer of ethyl acetate in eastern China was 6066 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling by 1.78%.

II. Analytical Review

Products: The domestic ethyl acetate Market has a downward trend. Considering the inventory pressure of manufacturers during the National Day holidays, manufacturers are actively conceding profits and delivering goods, which has pushed the market down. At present, the market with relatively high stock is still down next week. Up to now, the market offers are as follows: the mainstream reference offer in East China is 5950-6050 yuan/ton, the North China offer is 5850-5950 yuan/ton, and the mainstream offer in South China is 6000 yuan/ton. The market as a whole fell 150-200 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: As for acetic acid, the domestic acetic acid market shocks and weakens, dropping by 2.37% in a week. At present, the quotation in Henan is around 3150-3200/ton; in Shandong, it is about 3350-3500 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it is about 3500-3550 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is about 3350-3450 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it is about 3500-3600 yuan/ton. 。 The acetic acid Market in North America has been running steadily, with flat market turnover and weak purchasing gas, currently around US$360 per ton. Affected by poor demand, the price of acetic acid in Asia has continued to fall, currently at US$435-475 per ton, with strong bearish sentiment in the future. The supply and demand of the acetic acid Market in Europe has been stable and has been running steadily within a week, with the current quotation of about 650 euros per ton.

In the aspect of ethanol, the overall stability of the alcohol market before the National Day. With the shortfall in the cost of new grain listing, the start-up of enterprises remained stable and the market was stable with a slight downward trend.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the cost support is weak, the market bearish atmosphere is more and more strong, and the downstream demand just needs to be followed up. Considering the transportation pressure during the national day and the demand to reduce inventory, it is expected that the downstream ethyl acetate market still has downward space, and the reference market in East China is 5900 yuan / ton.

Trade Name: Phenol

East China Market (September 17): 8750 yuan/ton

Domestic phenol market continues to rise. Crude oil boom pulls pure benzene up, raw materials go up, cost side is supported, and the supply of goods in the northern market is still tense, supplier mentality is strong, continue to operate high offer mainly, many mainstream traders have scarce supply, market afternoon shipments increase, downstream participation in buying just needed, trading is limited. As of yesterday’s closing date, East China offered 8750-8800 yuan/ton, Shandong maintained 8800-8850 yuan/ton, the whole Shandong market has less supply; Yanshan around 8850-8900 yuan/ton; Henan and South China offer more than 9000 yuan/ton; Business associations expect the domestic phenol Market to be strong today, and East China phenol market price reference is 8800 yuan/ton. Near yuan/ton.

Market Price Trend Chart of Domestic Phenol

Commodity Name: Acetone

Market Price (East China September 17): 4950 yuan/ton

Analysis Points: Domestic acetone market continued to rise. The soaring crude oil boosted the raw material market, the industry’s mentality was good, the downstream inquiries increased, the acceptance of high prices was good, supporting traders to continue to push forward their offers. As of yesterday’s closing, the main negotiation area of East China market was 4950-5000 yuan/ton; the negotiation area of Yanshan peripheral market was 4700 yuan/ton; and the main negotiation area of South China market was 50 yuan/ton. 00-5050 yuan/ton. Business associations expect the domestic acetone market to be strong today, and the main negotiation range in East China market is expected to be 5000-5050 yuan/ton.

On September 17, the PX commodity index was 52.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.44% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 15.92% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

According to statistics, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable on the 17th. Hongrun 600,000 tons new plant was running steadily, Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant was running steadily, Urumqi Petrochemical Plant was started 50%, Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant was starting a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant was overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant was put into operation, and other units were running steadily. Temporarily stable operation, due to the normal domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX units in Asia is about 80%. The closing price of p-xylene in Asia rose by 41 US dollars per ton on September 16. The closing price is 804-806 US dollars per ton FOB in Korea and 823-825 US dollars per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The sharp rise of foreign prices has certain effect on the domestic market price of p-xylene. Good impact, but the domestic market price trend is temporarily stable.

On September 16, the price of WTI crude oil futures rose sharply to $62.90 per barrel, an increase of $8.05. Brent crude oil futures rose sharply to $69.02 per barrel, an increase of $8.8. As a result of terrorist attacks, Saudi Arabian Amy Company fired at its factories in Bugaig and Kules, resulting in 5.7 million barrels per day of crude oil. Stopping production, the supply of main production areas has been greatly reduced, and the price of crude oil has soared, which has brought some favorable support for downstream petrochemical products, and the price of external plate of p-xylene has been greatly affected. Recently, the textile industry has been on the rise, PTA market starting rate has risen slightly, PTA price has risen slightly. The average price of offer in East China is around 5400-5500 yuan/ton. As of 16 days, domestic PTA starting rate has risen to 97.7%, and polyester industry starting rate is about 91%. Due to the increase of PTA supply in the PTA market, the trading atmosphere is general, and the buying rate is about 91%. Traders dominate, sporadic polyester factories follow-up, driven by the rise in crude oil prices downstream PTA market prices slightly higher, is expected to maintain PX market prices in the short term or 6600 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride has been stable this week. This week, the average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation is 2260.00 yuan/ton, which is 0.29% lower than the same period last year. Overall, the market for potassium chloride was stable this week, with the commodity index of potassium chloride at 71.75 on September 13.

II. Market Analysis

This week, the quotation of the main potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride weekend ex-factory quotation is 2250 yuan/ton, compared with the early week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend distribution quotation is 227 yuan/ton, the quotation is temporarily stable. This week, the actual turnover of potassium chloride market is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction in the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic market of potassium chloride is stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium chloride Market in mid-September overall trend or low consolidation. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the equipment has been repaired and the production capacity has increased. However, the potassium chloride market is currently facing the pressure of three mountains, namely, the large stock of Hong Kong, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. Potassium chloride analysts believe that short-term potassium chloride Market in the supply and demand and raw materials and other aspects of the impact of the potassium chloride market or low consolidation.

On September 12, the rare earth index was 381 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 61.90% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 40.59% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of Neodymium in rare earth metals increased by 2,000 yuan per ton to 415,500 yuan per ton, Dysprosium by 2,325,000 yuan per ton and praseodymium by 695,000 yuan per ton. The average price of praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 330,500 yuan/ton, 193,000 yuan/ton, 382,500 yuan/ton and 332,500 yuan/ton respectively. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 415,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of dysprosium-iron alloys was 1.93 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the prices of some products in the rare earth field have been rising continuously. The domestic rare earth market has a general trading market. The prices of dysprosium and terbium metals and oxides have maintained a high level. Recent inquiries for neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide have increased in the field, and the prices of light rare earth oxides have maintained a rising trend. At that time, light rare earth merchants in the field were reluctant to sell and optimistic about the future market. Recent on-site transactions are general. The supply of rare earth is normal in China. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazards of some products, which make the environmental protection supervision stricter. Under strict environmental protection inspection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a general market of rare earth oxides. Especially some mainstream rare earth oxides are in normal supply. The price trend of rare earth market has risen. Recently, large enterprise groups in the field are reluctant to sell. The market of rare earth oxides is general and the turnover has not changed much.

Recently, the State Environmental Protection Department has been making strict investigations. Strengthening the supervision of the rare earth industry in Jiangxi Province has a great impact on the rare earth industry. The start-up of the rare earth industry is relatively low and the market is cold, which has brought some favorable support to the rare earth market. Recently, the Development and Reform Commission and the relevant departments have stepped up effective measures to regulate the industry, innovate and improve the relevant management mechanism, accelerate the construction of a rational industrial structure, advanced scientific and technological level, effective protection of resources, orderly production and operation of the industry development pattern, and give full play to the special price of rare earth as a strategic resource. Meanwhile, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and people in the domestic market are waiting for the good news of the policy and national reserves.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringency will not decrease in the near future, coupled with the domestic reorganization of the order of the rare earth industry, the supply of Jiangxi rare earth industry will be reduced, but the demand of rare earth downstream will be supported in the near future. It is expected that some prices of rare earth market will continue to rise slightly.

I. Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business associations, cobalt prices have soared recently. From September 6 to September 10, the average price of cobalt has risen by nearly 20,000 yuan in three trading days. As of September 10, the price of cobalt was 291,000 yuan/ton, which was 272,000 yuan/ton higher than the average price on September 5. The price of cobalt rose by 19,000 yuan/ton, or 6.99% in the three trading days. What causes the recent surge in cobalt prices? Can the cobalt market continue to grow?

II. Market Analysis

1. International Cobalt Price Rising Pressure Returns to Domestic

MB Cobalt Price Continuously Rises

As of September 6, MB standard grade cobalt is offered at US$16.8-17.5 per pound, alloy grade cobalt is offered at US$17.05-18.35 per pound, and MB cobalt is converted into RMB over 300,000 yuan per ton. The continuous increase of MB quotation is one of the main reasons for the recent soaring cobalt price. In the earlier period, the domestic cobalt price was too low and the international cobalt price was higher than the domestic cobalt price, which is conducive to the domestic cobalt export, accelerating the reduction of domestic cobalt stock and further leading to the rise of domestic cobalt price.

Cobalt Price Rising in LME Market

Since September, the cobalt price in LME market has risen sharply. The international cobalt price is obviously higher than the domestic cobalt price, which is conducive to the export of domestic cobalt and accelerates the de-stocking of domestic cobalt, which is good for the cobalt market.

2. Cost Pressure and Expected Supply Reduction Pressure of Cobalt Mines

According to the cost of cobalt ore, the cost of crude cobalt raw materials in domestic smelters may be 183,000 yuan/ton (excluding tax). The tax cost of electric cobalt products is higher than 260,000 yuan/ton. The high cost of raw materials pushes up the price of domestic electric cobalt. Jianengke KCC production reduction and Muanda shutdown, the active reduction of civilian mining, resulting in the expected reduction of cobalt production, cobalt prices in the future rise is better.

3. Cobalt enterprises in the stock market follow the trend

From the reaction of the stock market, we can see that the cold cobalt industry rose and stopped one day, Huayou cobalt industry rose 6.68% one day, and the stock market followed the trend of the spot market. The main reason is that after the cobalt price bottomed in mid-July, the spot cobalt price has continued to rise for nearly two months, which supports the cobalt smelting enterprises in China. Against the background of decreasing stock of cobalt raw materials and decreasing supply of international cobalt ore, cobalt smelting enterprises have a very low willingness to ship at a low price, which objectively promotes the rise of cobalt price.

4. Downstream Demand Expectation

New Energy Vehicles Keep Rising

According to the data of the Ride Federation, in August 2019, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars were 71,000 units, down 15.5% year on year and up 6% year on year. In August, the wholesale growth rate of pure electric passenger cars increased by 0% and 17% year-on-year. From January to August, 714,000 new energy passenger cars were wholesaled, an increase of 41.7% year on year. New energy vehicles still have good performance, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly. In the future, the demand for cobalt for new energy vehicles will still increase, but the growth rate may be difficult to anticipate.

Mobile phone sales are declining

According to the data of CITIC, in July 2019, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 34.19 million units, down 7.5% from the same period last year; in January-July 2019, the total shipment volume of domestic mobile phone market was 220 million units, down 5.5% from the same period last year. Domestic mobile phone sales declined, not with the advent of 5G, ushered in greater improvement. On the contrary, the imperfection of 5G infrastructure and the single model of 5G mobile phone affected consumers’enthusiasm for switching. It is expected that the 5G switching tide will indeed come in 2020. The demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market in 2019 is not obvious.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst with business associations, believes that the rising cost of cobalt ore has led to a series of changes in the follow-up market. The cobalt price of less than 200,000 yuan/ton in the earlier period has led to the loss of cobalt enterprises. The reduction of production of Glencore and the increase of prices of other cobalt enterprises are all acts of stress to enterprises with low cobalt prices. With the cobalt price approaching the 300,000 yuan mark again, it may be difficult for the cobalt price to continue the miracle of cobalt price. From the cost point of view, 300,000 yuan/ton cobalt price cobalt enterprises have enough profit space, too high cobalt price is bound to suffer unanimous boycott from downstream customers, affecting the rise of cobalt price; from the demand point of view, although the sales of new energy vehicles are still rising substantially, but the growth rate has declined significantly compared with previous years, NEW energy vehicles are the rising belt of cobalt market. The power has slowed down and it is difficult to support the rapid rise of cobalt price. The demand expectation of 5G mobile phone is one of the important supports for the continuation of cobalt price in the future. However, from the current performance of mobile phone market, it is difficult for the mobile phone market to rise significantly in a short period of time. On the contrary, the imperfection of 5G infrastructure and the selection of 5G models are less at this stage. It will reduce consumers’enthusiasm for switching phones. It is expected that the peak of mobile phone switching will come in 2020. The demand of cobalt market has not been better in the near future. In summary, the recent rise in cobalt prices is a comprehensive response to the cumulative transmission of cost pressures and supply expectations. In terms of demand, the future cobalt price has no effective support to sustain the rapid rise of cobalt price. There is still room for future cobalt prices to rise, but the slowdown is inevitable, and the future cobalt market will rise smoothly in a relatively long period of time.