1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the spot copper price was 67735 yuan / ton, down 3.31% from 70056.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 16.88% from the beginning of the year, and up 43.8% from the same period last year. This week, LME copper fell under pressure in March, closing at US $9219, down 7.75% for the week; This week, the Shanghai copper index fell sharply to close at 67440 yuan, down 6.24%. The international copper index closed at 59910 yuan, down 6.39%.

The bad news gathered this week. At the beginning of the week, it was rumored that the State Grain and material reserve bureau would put in copper, aluminum, zinc and other national reserves in batches. It was heard that the related non-ferrous varieties fell one after another. In addition, the state continues to pay attention to the rise in commodity prices. China has stepped up its monitoring of commodity prices and curbed speculative activities to ease the threat of soaring raw material costs to economic recovery. Copper prices have been the first to decline after the festival. After the Hawks’ statement at the meeting of the central and US Federal Reserve last week, the US dollar index continued to rise sharply, while the non-ferrous metal sector suffered a heavy decline. Recently, the center of gravity of copper concentrate processing fees has moved up slightly, suggesting that the supply side tension continues to ease. To sum up, at the turning point from the traditional peak season to the off-season, it is no doubt that the State Reserve’s dumping operation will form a more obvious pressure on copper, and it is expected that the copper price will still be weak in the short term.

Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

Latest price (June 16): 12208 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of styrene butadiene rubber was 12208 yuan / ton on the 16th, up 0.55% from the previous day. In June, the price of natural rubber continued to fall, bad for styrene butadiene rubber. At the beginning of this month, the overall start-up of styrene butadiene rubber industry increased, and the supply side pressure increased, which exacerbated the bad atmosphere. The raw material butadiene rose sharply, and the cost was slightly supported. According to the monitoring of the business association, the butadiene price was 8218 yuan / ton on June 15, up 10.19% from 7458 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Last week, the butylbenzene units of Yibang and Jihua were overhauled, which relieved the pressure of butylbenzene supply.

Future forecast: on the one hand, the sharp drop of butylbenzene since April has released some bad risks; on the other hand, the overhaul of Yibang and Jihua plants has also eased the pressure on butylbenzene supply to a certain extent. Overall, SBR is expected to stabilize in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on June 15 was 3603.333 yuan / ton, up 1.6% compared with that before the festival (on the 11th), down 0.64% compared with that at the beginning of the month, down 8.62% compared with that at the beginning of the month, and up 43.94% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In June, the price of domestic LNG market decreased frequently in the off-season. On the 15th, the first working day after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the domestic LNG market turned red in a large area. The price of liquid in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Ningxia and other places generally increased, with the range of 30-70 yuan / ton. The price adjustment mentality of liquid plants was more positive, and the overall market stopped falling and turned up. Starting from June 15, the price of raw gas in the direct supply liquid plant of northern PetroChina was 2-2.04 yuan / m3, and the cost price rose, boosting the market atmosphere. At the same time, after the festival, the logistics recovered, the demand for downstream replenishment increased, and the prices were continuously reduced in the early stage. Based on the cost consideration, the price of liquid plants increased after the festival, but restricted by the off-season factors, the increase was not big.

On June 15, the domestic liquefied natural gas market was booming, with 3500-3650 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 3580-3740 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 3650-3750 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 3560-3630 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 3750-3850 yuan / ton in Henan and 3620-3730 yuan / ton in Hebei. The liquid prices in various regions were increased to varying degrees.

region Specifications Quotation (yuan / ton) date

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 3500-3650 June 15th

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 3580-3740 June 15th

Shanxi liquified natural gas 3650-3750 June 15th

Ningxia liquified natural gas 3560-3630 June 15th

Hebei liquified natural gas 3620-3730 June 15th

Henan Province liquified natural gas 3750-3850 June 15th

Downstream products are mixed:

Methanol, the main closing price of methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on June 15 was 2514 yuan / ton, up 2.57% in the day. The atmosphere of domestic methanol spot market is warming up. Before the festival, some traders make up for the air and the downstream goods to support the mentality of the industry. After the festival, the new prices in Northwest China may be relatively strong, and at present, they are generally bullish. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of June 15, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2535 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 7.06% and a year-on-year increase of 56.48%. Crude oil is strong and the market mentality is good. Methanol analysts of business news agency expect that the domestic methanol market may continue to rise in a narrow range in the short term.

Urea, in the middle of June, the market of urea in Shandong may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand has declined, the industrial demand has risen slightly, and the urea supply is tight. It is expected that the domestic urea market will be in short supply in the short term, but the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea, and the market price will fluctuate slightly.

Dichloromethane, on June 15, the market quotation of methane chloride in Shandong area was slightly adjusted, and the quotation of manufacturers was adjusted. The main factory quotation of dichloromethane was about 3970 ~ 4050 yuan / ton, and the main factory quotation of trichloromethane was about 4350 ~ 4440 yuan / ton. A small number of downstream inquiries were received. The price of raw material liquid chlorine in Shandong is strong, and the cost is supported by dichloromethane; In addition to the current low inventory of methane chloride, it is expected that dichloromethane will continue to be high and strong in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency believe that: after the Dragon Boat Festival, logistics recovery, downstream replenishment demand increase, at the same time, the price of raw gas rises, the cost support is strong, coupled with the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the liquid plant is in a strong price support mood after the festival based on the cost consideration, and it is expected that it will continue to push up in the short term, but in the off-season, the power to continue to rise is insufficient.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the domestic price of vitamin C rose this week, with the price of 50 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 50.33 yuan / kg at the end of the week, up 0.66%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business association, the price of vitamins rose slightly this week, but the downstream did not buy it. The market transaction atmosphere was general. Manufacturers mainly finished the orders of old customers, and mostly stopped quoting and did not receive new orders. The price of traders is stable, and the downstream consumption does not increase significantly. In summer, the temperature rose, and the manufacturer began to plan maintenance. On the whole, the price of raw materials such as corn in the upper reaches rose, and the support from the lower reaches was insufficient, which led to the flat performance of vitamin C market this week and the lack of rising power.

3、 Future forecast

Vitamin C analysts from the chemical branch of Shangshe think: in general, the overall supply of vitamin C market is still greater than the demand, and the sufficient production capacity leads to the difficulty of rising the price of domestic VC market. It is expected that the vitamin C market will run steadily in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 7, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 14500 yuan / ton, which was increased by 700 yuan / ton or 5.07% compared with the price on June 1 (13800 yuan / ton).

In June, the domestic n-butanol market gradually recovered, and the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in Shandong Province continued to rise. In 2, 3 and 4 days, the cumulative price rise of n-butanol market was 500-1000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this month, supported by some delays in construction, the spot supply of n-butanol plants was tight, the downstream demand was good, and the trading atmosphere was gradually warming up, The reference price of n-butanol in Shandong is 14400-14700 yuan / ton, of which the ex factory price of n-butanol in North China of Shandong Yantai Wanhua chemical increased to 14600 yuan / ton, 600 yuan / ton higher than that in early June. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of June 6, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 14500 yuan / ton, which was 700 yuan / ton higher than that on June 1 (13800 yuan / ton), an increase of 5.07%.

Upstream, in the first two days of early June, the price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. From the 3rd, the price of propylene increased by 150-250 yuan / ton, and then increased slightly by 50 yuan / ton on the 4th. At present, as of the 7th, the transaction volume of propylene market in Shandong increased to 7850-8250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 8050 yuan / ton.

Inventory low, just need replenishment, short-term market stable and strong operation

In June, the domestic n-butanol market rebounded steadily, the market turnover was stable, the manufacturers’ inventory was low, the downstream just needed to replenish, and the overall trading atmosphere was good. The n-butanol analysts of the business community believed that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market would continue to be stable and relatively strong.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the dimethyl ether Market as a whole showed a downward trend in late May, and there was a sharp downward trend in this week’s market. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3675.00 yuan / ton on June 6 and 3540.00 yuan / ton on June 7, with a one-day drop of 3.67%, up 57.80% over the same period last year. As of June 7, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% June 7th 3680 yuan / ton

Hebei Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% June 7th 3650 yuan / ton

Henan Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% June 7th 3480-3530 yuan / ton

In early June, with the introduction of CP price rise in June, the civil price of LPG was slightly higher, and the dimethyl ether Market was temporarily positive, and the price was stable and upward. However, due to the small increase of CP price, the positive effect on the market is limited. Then the DME market returned to the downward trend again. At the end of the week, the market began to decline, especially in Henan, with a decline range of 140-170 yuan / ton, Hebei and Shandong fell by 80-100 yuan / ton, and Jiangxi fell by 50 yuan / ton.

Affected by the traditional off-season factors, the decline is not unexpected. In the first ten days of May, the dimethyl ether market continued to rise, pushing the price up to a high level. Since the end of last ten days, dimethyl ether has not been good enough and has been greatly reduced. The overall decline of methanol cost was the main trend, while the trend of LPG civil market was weak, which brought bad news to the market. On the supply side, some manufacturers have recently restarted their devices, and the market supply has increased. On the demand side, the poor terminal demand has brought obvious constraints to the market, the downstream replenishment cycle has been lengthened, the replenishment is mostly on demand, and the enthusiasm is not good. There are many negative factors in the market, leading to a sharp drop in prices.

In recent years, the domestic methanol market has declined in many regions, which has brought bad news to the market. June 7, Henan methanol market offer lower, trading in general. The main enterprises in Henan offer 2360 yuan / ton factory withdrawal acceptance, other enterprises refer to 2380 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash, Luoyang market offer reference 2330 yuan / ton can cash. The mainstream transaction price of Linfen in Shanxi fell by 30-80 yuan / ton to 2150-2220 yuan / ton in cash; Changzhi area offline price to 2400 yuan / ton factory cash; The mainstream transaction price in Jincheng area was stable at 2300 yuan / ton in cash.

At present, there are many negative factors in the dimethyl ether Market. The raw material methanol market and the liquefied gas civil market are weak. Affected by the traditional off-season factors, the demand is weak, and the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is limited. Moreover, the supply of dimethyl ether Market has increased compared with the previous period. Under multiple negative factors, the dimethyl ether Market is weak. Overall, dimethyl ether market lacks obvious positive support, and it is expected that there will still be room for decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

Hips market prices fell slightly this week. According to the big data list of business society, the average domestic hips price on June 4 was 12966.67 yuan / ton, down 3.71% from the beginning of the week, and 0.31% on month.

2、 Market analysis

Hips market has continued to decline since the second half of May, while weak market has continued to this day, and hips prices fell 3.7% this week. The raw styrene market has been in a weak market recently, with the cost side support declining, adding the influence of power limit in some regions, reducing some demand. The overall market investment atmosphere is relatively weak, and the sales of the stockholders has some pressure to make the profit and shipment better. In addition, the short-term hips market is weak and the price will continue to weaken. Up to now, the main price of benzene penetration in China is mainly about 10900-11200 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of hips is about 12700-13500 yuan / ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical 660 reference price is 12700 yuan / T, Zhanjiang China and the United States 990 reference price is 12700 yuan / T, Shanghai Secco 622 reference price is 13500 yuan / T, CITIC Guoan 688 reference price is 13100 yuan / ton, and the market market is stable and downward, and the cooling is significant.

International crude oil market, June 3, international oil price was stable and the price changed little. The settlement price of main contract in WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was US $68.81/barrel, down slightly by 0.02 US dollars. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was $71.31/barrel, down slightly by $0.04. Oil prices rose significantly in two consecutive trading days, and oil prices stopped rising on Thursday, mainly due to a sharp drop in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, but the inventory of finished oil depots unexpectedly increased.

In terms of raw materials, the Styrene Market in North China declined slightly on June 3. Qingdao refining and chemical and Qilu Petrochemical quoted 9700 yuan / ton today. At the cost end, crude oil rose, and the price of pure benzene increased. The repair unit of pure benzene is restarted and the supply will rise, but the low inventory will continue, and the supply and demand gap will be maintained, which will support the styrene price. On the supply side, the domestic supply of styrene is increasing steadily, the maintenance unit is about to restart, the new unit is about to produce products, and the starting rate continues to rise. With the increase of domestic domestic trade and the amount of imported into East China, the inventory of styrene East China terminal has been expected to be exhausted. Downstream, EPS commencement rate has decreased, PS start rate has picked up slightly, ABS maintains high opening rate, ABS enters the off-season demand, EPS terminal demand is weak, waiting for a while to fall psychology is strong. It is expected that the styrene will weaken in the short term, and the trend of crude oil and pure benzene, the dynamic of the unit and the demand change of downstream should be concerned.

3、 Future forecast

The business agency believes that the raw material shock is weak, the cost side support gradually declines, and the downstream demand is not followed up enough to maintain the purchasing demand. The overall market investment atmosphere is general. Therefore, hips price is falling, and the short-term market is still weak, and the change of raw material price should be concerned.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the market of chloroform rose slightly this week (5.31-6.4). The price of chloroform was 4190 yuan / ton on the third day of the week, and 4310 yuan / ton on the third day of the week, with an overall increase of 2.86%.

This week, the overall operation rate of domestic methane chloride plants increased slightly. According to the business news agency, this week, the Jinling Dongying plant was in high load operation, the Dongyue methane chloride plant was in full load operation, the Jinmao methane chloride plant was in shutdown, and about 90% of the projects were started in Luxi, Jiangsu Liwen methane chloride overhaul was completed, and Jiangxi Liwen started at full load, The construction of Meilan Juhua is about 70%.

The price fell slightly, and the cost side was still supported. According to the business news agency, as of June 4, the price of methanol was 2672 yuan / ton, down 1.87% from 2622 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; As of June 4, the main factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province was about 2100 yuan / ton.

At present, the domestic temperature generally rises and enters the high temperature stage in summer. The demand for refrigerant has a certain rigid support, which also forms a support for chloroform.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that the current cost side, demand side have a certain support, is expected to maintain a high and stable price of methane chloride next Wednesday.

The increase of export volume drove the butadiene market up rapidly in May. The widening price gap between Europe, the United States and Asia boosted the increase of butadiene export and domestic spot market. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic butadiene market price was 6787 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 7378 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an increase of 8.71% within the month and a year-on-year increase of 76.34%.

In May, the domestic butadiene market fluctuated upward, and the price increase increased at the end of the month. Recently, the external market rose strongly, and the price difference between the internal and external markets boosted the export increment of domestic sources of goods, alleviated the pressure on domestic supply to a certain extent, and boosted the domestic butadiene market to rise gradually in the middle and late May. We heard that the production of new production capacity was delayed in the middle and late ten days, and the butadiene market went out of a wave of rising trend with the help of high external market and export. During the month, some of the devices were gradually restarted, and domestic production increased. In addition, businesses had poor expectations for the mid-term market from June to July, and the market trading was more cautious. However, the short-term market atmosphere was strong, and the market focus was dominated by suppliers, so it was difficult to find low-cost goods in the market.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec East China butadiene supply price has increased by 600 yuan / ton month on month, with 7500 yuan / ton as of May 31; The 50000 T / a butadiene extraction unit of Yantai Wanhua was in normal operation, and a small amount of goods were limited for export. As of May 31, the price was 8000 yuan / T; The 64000 T / a butadiene plant of Shenhua Ningshan coal has been in stable operation, and some of the goods are exported. As of May 31, the price was 7800 yuan / T; During the month, a total of 940 tons of goods from Huajin and Bora petrochemicals were sold through online auction. Fushun Petrochemical plant was restarted, but there was no export for the time being.

External price: as of June 1, the external price of butadiene in Asia was adjusted: FOB Korea closed at US $1045-1055 / T, stable; CFR China closed at US $1055-1065 per ton, up US $10 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1410-1420 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 1155-1165 euros / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Korea USD 1045-1055 / T 0 USD / ton

Asia CFR China 1055-1065 USD / T US $10 / T

Europe FOB Rotterdam 1410-1420 USD / T / USD / T

Europe FD northwest Europe 1155-1165 euro / ton / EUR / T

At present, the domestic butadiene market has been rising rapidly in the early stage, and the transaction needs to be followed up. The downstream synthetic rubber market is weak, and the new production capacity of China and South Korea is expected to be put in. Business community butadiene analysts expect short-term domestic butadiene market consolidation.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic EVA market was 20466.67 yuan / ton on May 24 and 20466.67 yuan / ton on May 31. During the period, the price was flat, up 2.58% compared with March 30. This week, EVA manufacturers continue to run steadily, the market price trend is still weak.

As of May 31, EVA factory quotation is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 20000 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 21500 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2045 21500 yuan / ton

EVA BASF, Yangtze V5110J RMB 19900 / T

This week, EVA petrochemical enterprises had little change, most of them continued to be stable, and the market offer continued to fall, but the range narrowed compared with the previous period, with a decrease of about 100-300 yuan / ton within the week. At present, the price of hard material is 20000-20500 yuan / ton, and that of soft material is 20500-20800 yuan / ton. Due to the release of new production capacity in the market, the upstream petrochemical manufacturers mainly produce photovoltaic materials, the market supply is tight, and the ex factory price is relatively stable compared with the market price. At present, most of the downstream companies enter the market on demand, the demand follow-up is insufficient, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is stalemate, the mentality of the merchants is weak, and the transaction is mostly maintained for negotiation.

EVA production enterprise device dynamics:

product manufactor Capacity (10000 tons / year) Device dynamics

EVA yanshan petrochemical twenty High pressure of start-up production on May 16

EVA Beijing Organic four May 16 start up production

EVA Ningbo taiplastic Co., Ltd seven point two Currently driving

EVA BASF, Yangtze twenty Normal production this week

International crude oil market: on May 28, international oil prices fell, and the settlement price of main contracts in WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $66.32/barrel, or 0.53 US dollars or 0.79%. Brent crude oil futures market main contract settlement price of 68.72 USD / barrel, down 0.48 US dollars or 0.69%.

Ethylene market: the recent external market of ethylene market overall showed a downward trend. Asian ethylene market prices fell as of 26, CFR Northeast Asia closed at $1063-1069 / T, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at $1008-1014 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated slightly, as of the 26th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1284-1298 / T and CIF northwest Europe at US $1284-1293 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.

Generally speaking, the market lacks obvious positive support, the overall price is weak, the downstream manufacturers have limited ability to accept high prices, they are cautious, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is stalemate, and it is not easy to make a firm offer. It is expected that the price of EVA market will keep stable in the short term, and the overall trend may still be weak.