Zinc price trend stops falling and stabilizes

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the zinc price fluctuated and fell in June. From the 16th to the 21st, the zinc price fell continuously. As of June 22, the zinc price was 21986.67 yuan / ton, down 4.96% from 23133.33 yuan on June 1, and 4.46% from June 16.

International Zinc Market

According to the data released by Kazakhstan Statistics Bureau, the refined zinc output in April 2021 was 25941 tons, 5.3% less than 27391 tons in March; The cumulative output in the first four months of 2021 was 104389 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. According to the report data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs), the global zinc market will be short of 38000 tons from January to April 2021. In April 2021, the global zinc market consumption was 1.1966 million tons. In April 2021, the global zinc market output was 1146200 tons. As of the end of April 2021, the global zinc market inventory is 151000 tons. In the past 21 years, the output of global zinc market has decreased, and the demand of global zinc market is in short supply; As the first source of China’s Zinc import, Kazakhstan’s refined zinc output has declined, China’s Zinc import is difficult, and the upward pressure of zinc market has increased.

According to the latest customs data released by the General Administration of customs, in April 2020, China imported 40700 tons of refined zinc, with a month on month increase of 11.6% and a year-on-year increase of 24.2%; 0700 tons of exports, a month on month increase of 16.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 85.1%; In April, the net import of zinc ingots was 40000 tons. From January to April in 2020, the total import was 174200 tons, an increase of 51.6% year on year. Zinc import volume increased, domestic zinc market demand is strong, zinc market has rise support.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, believes that: the state’s throwing reserves has stimulated the domestic zinc price to fall sharply continuously. However, from the perspective of supply and demand of the zinc market, the global zinc market is in short supply, and the zinc market is in short supply. However, the domestic zinc market has strong demand, and the overall zinc market is in short supply. The zinc market has price support, and the zinc price has limited space to fall. The state’s throwing reserves can make up for the shortage of domestic zinc market demand, However, the overall decline space of zinc market is limited, and it is expected that the future zinc market will fluctuate and stabilize.

Domestic butadiene market continued to rise. The market is still dominated by the mainstream manufacturers. The high price of the external market rose at the beginning of the week, and Sinopec and other suppliers increased the supply price, which encouraged the businesses to follow the quotation. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of June 18, the domestic butadiene market price was 8532 yuan / ton, with a month on month rise of 24.58% and a year-on-year rise of 144.48%. In terms of price, the delivery price in central Shandong is 9350-9450 yuan / ton, and the self delivery price in East China is 8850-8950 yuan / ton.

Downstream rigid demand was forced to accept high price supply, transaction improved, supporting the market to strengthen. Although the transaction of sporadic high price offers is limited, under the influence of export news, the middlemen have no intention to lower, the short-term market expectation is strong, and the market performance is relatively strong.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec’s sales companies increased the supply price of butadiene by 500 yuan / ton to 8400-8900 yuan / ton. Nanjing Chengzhi 100000 t / a butadiene extraction unit has been shut down for maintenance since April 9, and is planned to restart on June 17.

The external supply price of butadiene of main production enterprises is as follows:

enterprise ., Price (yuan / ton)%, plant dynamic

Liaoyang Petrochemical 8200 yuan / ton Stable operation of 30000 T / a butadiene plant

Dalian Hengli 8710 yuan / ton 140000t / a butadiene plant operates stably, and the source of goods is normal for export

Liaotong chemical / No source of goods for online export

Fushun Petrochemical No export Normal operation of 160000 T / a butadiene extraction unit

Jiutai, Inner Mongolia / The 70 kt / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit has been shut down for maintenance since April 12 and is expected to last about 20-30 days

Sipang, Jiangsu Province eight thousand and eight hundred Stable operation of 100 kt / a butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit

Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd eight thousand and five hundred Normal operation of 165000 T / a plant

Shanghai Petrochemical eight thousand and five hundred Normal operation of 120000 T / a plant

Yangzi Petrochemical eight thousand and five hundred Normal operation of 120000 T / a plant

Sinopec eight thousand and five hundred The 200000 t / a plant is in normal operation and mainly supplied by each other

Maoming Petrochemical eight thousand four hundred and fifty 150000 T / a plant is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

Guangzhou Petrochemical eight thousand and five hundred The 30000 T / a plant is in normal operation, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

Wuhan ethylene eight thousand and nine hundred 190kt / a extraction unit operates stably, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

External price: as of June 17, the external price of butadiene in Asia rose: FOB Korea closed at US $1185-1195 / T, up US $10 / T; CFR China closed at US $1195-1205 per ton, up US $10 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1695-1705 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 1295-1305 euros / ton.

region ., Country. Closing price. Up and down

Asia FOB Korea 1185-1195 USD / T US $10 / T

Asia CFR China 1195-1205 USD / T US $10 / T

Europe FOB Rotterdam US $1695-1705 / T 0 USD / ton

Europe FD northwest Europe 1295-1305 euro / ton 0 euro / ton

The external market continued to be strong, domestic sources of goods actively exported, supply pressure eased, and short-term supply side was supported. Under the strong support of export news, there is no low price source for both internal and external markets, and business analysts expect the market to be high and consolidation oriented.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell slightly this week. As of the end of the week, the spot copper price was 67735 yuan / ton, down 3.31% from 70056.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 16.88% from the beginning of the year, and up 43.8% from the same period last year. This week, LME copper fell under pressure in March, closing at US $9219, down 7.75% for the week; This week, the Shanghai copper index fell sharply to close at 67440 yuan, down 6.24%. The international copper index closed at 59910 yuan, down 6.39%.

The bad news gathered this week. At the beginning of the week, it was rumored that the State Grain and material reserve bureau would put in copper, aluminum, zinc and other national reserves in batches. It was heard that the related non-ferrous varieties fell one after another. In addition, the state continues to pay attention to the rise in commodity prices. China has stepped up its monitoring of commodity prices and curbed speculative activities to ease the threat of soaring raw material costs to economic recovery. Copper prices have been the first to decline after the festival. After the Hawks’ statement at the meeting of the central and US Federal Reserve last week, the US dollar index continued to rise sharply, while the non-ferrous metal sector suffered a heavy decline. Recently, the center of gravity of copper concentrate processing fees has moved up slightly, suggesting that the supply side tension continues to ease. To sum up, at the turning point from the traditional peak season to the off-season, it is no doubt that the State Reserve’s dumping operation will form a more obvious pressure on copper, and it is expected that the copper price will still be weak in the short term.

Trade name: styrene butadiene rubber 1502

Latest price (June 16): 12208 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of styrene butadiene rubber was 12208 yuan / ton on the 16th, up 0.55% from the previous day. In June, the price of natural rubber continued to fall, bad for styrene butadiene rubber. At the beginning of this month, the overall start-up of styrene butadiene rubber industry increased, and the supply side pressure increased, which exacerbated the bad atmosphere. The raw material butadiene rose sharply, and the cost was slightly supported. According to the monitoring of the business association, the butadiene price was 8218 yuan / ton on June 15, up 10.19% from 7458 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. Last week, the butylbenzene units of Yibang and Jihua were overhauled, which relieved the pressure of butylbenzene supply.

Future forecast: on the one hand, the sharp drop of butylbenzene since April has released some bad risks; on the other hand, the overhaul of Yibang and Jihua plants has also eased the pressure on butylbenzene supply to a certain extent. Overall, SBR is expected to stabilize in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on June 15 was 3603.333 yuan / ton, up 1.6% compared with that before the festival (on the 11th), down 0.64% compared with that at the beginning of the month, down 8.62% compared with that at the beginning of the month, and up 43.94% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In June, the price of domestic LNG market decreased frequently in the off-season. On the 15th, the first working day after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the domestic LNG market turned red in a large area. The price of liquid in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Ningxia and other places generally increased, with the range of 30-70 yuan / ton. The price adjustment mentality of liquid plants was more positive, and the overall market stopped falling and turned up. Starting from June 15, the price of raw gas in the direct supply liquid plant of northern PetroChina was 2-2.04 yuan / m3, and the cost price rose, boosting the market atmosphere. At the same time, after the festival, the logistics recovered, the demand for downstream replenishment increased, and the prices were continuously reduced in the early stage. Based on the cost consideration, the price of liquid plants increased after the festival, but restricted by the off-season factors, the increase was not big.

On June 15, the domestic liquefied natural gas market was booming, with 3500-3650 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 3580-3740 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 3650-3750 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 3560-3630 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 3750-3850 yuan / ton in Henan and 3620-3730 yuan / ton in Hebei. The liquid prices in various regions were increased to varying degrees.

region Specifications Quotation (yuan / ton) date

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 3500-3650 June 15th

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 3580-3740 June 15th

Shanxi liquified natural gas 3650-3750 June 15th

Ningxia liquified natural gas 3560-3630 June 15th

Hebei liquified natural gas 3620-3730 June 15th

Henan Province liquified natural gas 3750-3850 June 15th

Downstream products are mixed:

Methanol, the main closing price of methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on June 15 was 2514 yuan / ton, up 2.57% in the day. The atmosphere of domestic methanol spot market is warming up. Before the festival, some traders make up for the air and the downstream goods to support the mentality of the industry. After the festival, the new prices in Northwest China may be relatively strong, and at present, they are generally bullish. According to the monitoring of business news agency, as of June 15, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises in Shandong was 2535 yuan / ton, with a month on month decrease of 7.06% and a year-on-year increase of 56.48%. Crude oil is strong and the market mentality is good. Methanol analysts of business news agency expect that the domestic methanol market may continue to rise in a narrow range in the short term.

Urea, in the middle of June, the market of urea in Shandong may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand has declined, the industrial demand has risen slightly, and the urea supply is tight. It is expected that the domestic urea market will be in short supply in the short term, but the downstream businesses have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high price urea, and the market price will fluctuate slightly.

Dichloromethane, on June 15, the market quotation of methane chloride in Shandong area was slightly adjusted, and the quotation of manufacturers was adjusted. The main factory quotation of dichloromethane was about 3970 ~ 4050 yuan / ton, and the main factory quotation of trichloromethane was about 4350 ~ 4440 yuan / ton. A small number of downstream inquiries were received. The price of raw material liquid chlorine in Shandong is strong, and the cost is supported by dichloromethane; In addition to the current low inventory of methane chloride, it is expected that dichloromethane will continue to be high and strong in the future.

3、 Future forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency believe that: after the Dragon Boat Festival, logistics recovery, downstream replenishment demand increase, at the same time, the price of raw gas rises, the cost support is strong, coupled with the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the liquid plant is in a strong price support mood after the festival based on the cost consideration, and it is expected that it will continue to push up in the short term, but in the off-season, the power to continue to rise is insufficient.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the domestic price of vitamin C rose this week, with the price of 50 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 50.33 yuan / kg at the end of the week, up 0.66%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business association, the price of vitamins rose slightly this week, but the downstream did not buy it. The market transaction atmosphere was general. Manufacturers mainly finished the orders of old customers, and mostly stopped quoting and did not receive new orders. The price of traders is stable, and the downstream consumption does not increase significantly. In summer, the temperature rose, and the manufacturer began to plan maintenance. On the whole, the price of raw materials such as corn in the upper reaches rose, and the support from the lower reaches was insufficient, which led to the flat performance of vitamin C market this week and the lack of rising power.

3、 Future forecast

Vitamin C analysts from the chemical branch of Shangshe think: in general, the overall supply of vitamin C market is still greater than the demand, and the sufficient production capacity leads to the difficulty of rising the price of domestic VC market. It is expected that the vitamin C market will run steadily in the near future.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of June 7, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 14500 yuan / ton, which was increased by 700 yuan / ton or 5.07% compared with the price on June 1 (13800 yuan / ton).

In June, the domestic n-butanol market gradually recovered, and the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in Shandong Province continued to rise. In 2, 3 and 4 days, the cumulative price rise of n-butanol market was 500-1000 yuan / ton. At the beginning of this month, supported by some delays in construction, the spot supply of n-butanol plants was tight, the downstream demand was good, and the trading atmosphere was gradually warming up, The reference price of n-butanol in Shandong is 14400-14700 yuan / ton, of which the ex factory price of n-butanol in North China of Shandong Yantai Wanhua chemical increased to 14600 yuan / ton, 600 yuan / ton higher than that in early June. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of June 6, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 14500 yuan / ton, which was 700 yuan / ton higher than that on June 1 (13800 yuan / ton), an increase of 5.07%.

Upstream, in the first two days of early June, the price of propylene in Shandong continued to decline. From the 3rd, the price of propylene increased by 150-250 yuan / ton, and then increased slightly by 50 yuan / ton on the 4th. At present, as of the 7th, the transaction volume of propylene market in Shandong increased to 7850-8250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 8050 yuan / ton.

Inventory low, just need replenishment, short-term market stable and strong operation

In June, the domestic n-butanol market rebounded steadily, the market turnover was stable, the manufacturers’ inventory was low, the downstream just needed to replenish, and the overall trading atmosphere was good. The n-butanol analysts of the business community believed that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market would continue to be stable and relatively strong.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the dimethyl ether Market as a whole showed a downward trend in late May, and there was a sharp downward trend in this week’s market. According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 3675.00 yuan / ton on June 6 and 3540.00 yuan / ton on June 7, with a one-day drop of 3.67%, up 57.80% over the same period last year. As of June 7, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% June 7th 3680 yuan / ton

Hebei Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% June 7th 3650 yuan / ton

Henan Province Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% June 7th 3480-3530 yuan / ton

In early June, with the introduction of CP price rise in June, the civil price of LPG was slightly higher, and the dimethyl ether Market was temporarily positive, and the price was stable and upward. However, due to the small increase of CP price, the positive effect on the market is limited. Then the DME market returned to the downward trend again. At the end of the week, the market began to decline, especially in Henan, with a decline range of 140-170 yuan / ton, Hebei and Shandong fell by 80-100 yuan / ton, and Jiangxi fell by 50 yuan / ton.

Affected by the traditional off-season factors, the decline is not unexpected. In the first ten days of May, the dimethyl ether market continued to rise, pushing the price up to a high level. Since the end of last ten days, dimethyl ether has not been good enough and has been greatly reduced. The overall decline of methanol cost was the main trend, while the trend of LPG civil market was weak, which brought bad news to the market. On the supply side, some manufacturers have recently restarted their devices, and the market supply has increased. On the demand side, the poor terminal demand has brought obvious constraints to the market, the downstream replenishment cycle has been lengthened, the replenishment is mostly on demand, and the enthusiasm is not good. There are many negative factors in the market, leading to a sharp drop in prices.

In recent years, the domestic methanol market has declined in many regions, which has brought bad news to the market. June 7, Henan methanol market offer lower, trading in general. The main enterprises in Henan offer 2360 yuan / ton factory withdrawal acceptance, other enterprises refer to 2380 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash, Luoyang market offer reference 2330 yuan / ton can cash. The mainstream transaction price of Linfen in Shanxi fell by 30-80 yuan / ton to 2150-2220 yuan / ton in cash; Changzhi area offline price to 2400 yuan / ton factory cash; The mainstream transaction price in Jincheng area was stable at 2300 yuan / ton in cash.

At present, there are many negative factors in the dimethyl ether Market. The raw material methanol market and the liquefied gas civil market are weak. Affected by the traditional off-season factors, the demand is weak, and the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is limited. Moreover, the supply of dimethyl ether Market has increased compared with the previous period. Under multiple negative factors, the dimethyl ether Market is weak. Overall, dimethyl ether market lacks obvious positive support, and it is expected that there will still be room for decline in the future.

1、 Price trend

Hips market prices fell slightly this week. According to the big data list of business society, the average domestic hips price on June 4 was 12966.67 yuan / ton, down 3.71% from the beginning of the week, and 0.31% on month.

2、 Market analysis

Hips market has continued to decline since the second half of May, while weak market has continued to this day, and hips prices fell 3.7% this week. The raw styrene market has been in a weak market recently, with the cost side support declining, adding the influence of power limit in some regions, reducing some demand. The overall market investment atmosphere is relatively weak, and the sales of the stockholders has some pressure to make the profit and shipment better. In addition, the short-term hips market is weak and the price will continue to weaken. Up to now, the main price of benzene penetration in China is mainly about 10900-11200 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of hips is about 12700-13500 yuan / ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical 660 reference price is 12700 yuan / T, Zhanjiang China and the United States 990 reference price is 12700 yuan / T, Shanghai Secco 622 reference price is 13500 yuan / T, CITIC Guoan 688 reference price is 13100 yuan / ton, and the market market is stable and downward, and the cooling is significant.

International crude oil market, June 3, international oil price was stable and the price changed little. The settlement price of main contract in WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was US $68.81/barrel, down slightly by 0.02 US dollars. The settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was $71.31/barrel, down slightly by $0.04. Oil prices rose significantly in two consecutive trading days, and oil prices stopped rising on Thursday, mainly due to a sharp drop in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, but the inventory of finished oil depots unexpectedly increased.

In terms of raw materials, the Styrene Market in North China declined slightly on June 3. Qingdao refining and chemical and Qilu Petrochemical quoted 9700 yuan / ton today. At the cost end, crude oil rose, and the price of pure benzene increased. The repair unit of pure benzene is restarted and the supply will rise, but the low inventory will continue, and the supply and demand gap will be maintained, which will support the styrene price. On the supply side, the domestic supply of styrene is increasing steadily, the maintenance unit is about to restart, the new unit is about to produce products, and the starting rate continues to rise. With the increase of domestic domestic trade and the amount of imported into East China, the inventory of styrene East China terminal has been expected to be exhausted. Downstream, EPS commencement rate has decreased, PS start rate has picked up slightly, ABS maintains high opening rate, ABS enters the off-season demand, EPS terminal demand is weak, waiting for a while to fall psychology is strong. It is expected that the styrene will weaken in the short term, and the trend of crude oil and pure benzene, the dynamic of the unit and the demand change of downstream should be concerned.

3、 Future forecast

The business agency believes that the raw material shock is weak, the cost side support gradually declines, and the downstream demand is not followed up enough to maintain the purchasing demand. The overall market investment atmosphere is general. Therefore, hips price is falling, and the short-term market is still weak, and the change of raw material price should be concerned.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the market of chloroform rose slightly this week (5.31-6.4). The price of chloroform was 4190 yuan / ton on the third day of the week, and 4310 yuan / ton on the third day of the week, with an overall increase of 2.86%.

This week, the overall operation rate of domestic methane chloride plants increased slightly. According to the business news agency, this week, the Jinling Dongying plant was in high load operation, the Dongyue methane chloride plant was in full load operation, the Jinmao methane chloride plant was in shutdown, and about 90% of the projects were started in Luxi, Jiangsu Liwen methane chloride overhaul was completed, and Jiangxi Liwen started at full load, The construction of Meilan Juhua is about 70%.

The price fell slightly, and the cost side was still supported. According to the business news agency, as of June 4, the price of methanol was 2672 yuan / ton, down 1.87% from 2622 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week; As of June 4, the main factory price of liquid chlorine for tank cars in Shandong Province was about 2100 yuan / ton.

At present, the domestic temperature generally rises and enters the high temperature stage in summer. The demand for refrigerant has a certain rigid support, which also forms a support for chloroform.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that the current cost side, demand side have a certain support, is expected to maintain a high and stable price of methane chloride next Wednesday.